Best MLB bets today: Yankees vs. Phillies predictions, best bets, top player props for July 25

After a stellar start to the 2025 season on the heels of a World Series defeat, the New York Yankees (56-46) have fallen out of first place in the AL East as they have struggled of late while the Toronto Blue Jays have surged. The Yankees, who just traded for Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon on Friday, have played some lackluster baseball, particularly defensively, and just dropped two of three games to Toronto. As for their Friday opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies (58-44), they're in a tight NL East race as they trail the New York Mets. Philadelphia just took two of three from the Boston Red Sox.

Aaron Judge and the Yankees welcome Bryce Harper and the Phillies to the Bronx for a weekend series that begins Friday night at 7:05 p.m, ET that will stream nationally on Apple TV+. 

Baseball fans looking for the best MLB bets today at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Yankees vs. Phillies predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. The game should offer no shortage of MLB betting opportunities, including MLB player props and more. 

The Yankees hand the ball to rookie right-hander Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA) for Friday's series opener. He's been very good at getting strikeouts (26.7 K rate) but has walked a lot of batters (10.7% BB rate) and lasted just 3.2 innings in his last start against the Atlanta Braves, in which he allowed five runs and two home runs. For Friday, FanDuel Sportsbook has Warren set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts, with the Over priced +112 and the Under set at -142. The model leans to the Over.

The Phillies turn to veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75) for this series opener. Walker has split time between the bullpen and rotation this year and hasn't worked particularly deep in his starts. FanDuel has Walker's strikeouts prop at 3.5, with the over at -140 and Under at +110. The model rates the Over 4 stars out of 5.

Aaron Judge is the favorite to hit a home run on the FanDuel odds board at +126, followed by Kyle Schwarber (+172), Giancarlo Stanton (+230), Bryce Harper (+240), Jazz Chisholm (+255), Trent Grisham (+285), Cody Bellinger (+340) and Austin Wells (+340).

The Yankees are -154 favorites (wager $154 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Phillies are +129 (wager $100 to win $129) underdogs. The total currently sits at 10, with the Over favored at -117. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Yankees-Phillies at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections and MLB betting picks today for Yankees vs. Phillies.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at NEW YORK YANKEES | 7/25 | 7:05 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Phillies +129
Philadelphia wins in 43% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-156)
Philadelphia covers in 64% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 10 (-117)
The Over hits in 47.8% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Projected score: Yankees 5.4, Phillies 5.2