Best MLB bets today: Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions, best bets, top player props for July 23

The New York Yankees (56-45) snagged a much-needed win on Tuesday when Ben Rice hit a game-winning home run off Toronto Blue Jays (59-42) closer Jeff Hoffman to move a game closer to the Jays in the AL East standings. Aaron Judge and the Yankees are now just three games back, and a win in Wednesday's series finale would make retaking the East much more attainable. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays will seek to regain ground. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET, and the game will stream on Prime Video.

Baseball fans looking for the best MLB bets today at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. The game should offer no shortage of MLB betting opportunities, including MLB player props and more. 

New York is going with ace lefty Max Fried (11-3, 2.43 ERA) for this rubber match, and he should be a Cy Young candidate by the end of the season. However, he's coming off a rough showing against the Chicago Cubs where he gave up four runs on six hits in three innings. Fried gave up four runs in six innings in his last appearance against the Blue Jays, which was a 12-5 loss for New York. FanDuel Sportsbook has Fried set at over/under 4.5 strikeouts for Wednesday, with the Over priced -110 and the Under at -120. The SportsLine Projection Model rates the Over 4.5 stars out of 5, as it projects Fried to notch 5.7 Ks. 

The home side is going with Chris Bassitt (10-4, 3.89 ERA), who has won three of his last four starts. He was solid in his last outing when facing the San Francisco Giants, allowing zero runs despite giving up 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander did get a win over the Yankees in his last appearance against the Bronx Bombers, striking out nine in 5 2/3 innings. Bassitt is set at O/U 5.5 strikeouts for Wednesday, with FanDuel pricing the Over at -110 and the Under at -116. The model leans to the Over.

Aaron Judge is the favorite to hit a home run on the FanDuel odds board at +148. He's followed by Jazz Chisholm (+390), Trent Grisham (+400), Ben Rice (+420), Cody Bellinger (+430), Austin Wells (+450), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+480) and George Springer (+520).

The Yankees are -141 favorites (wager $141 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Blue Jays are +119 (wager $100 to win $119) underdogs. The total currently sits at 8.5, with the Under favored at -119. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Yankees-Blue Jays at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections and MLB betting picks today for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.

NEW YORK YANKEES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS | 7/23 | 7:07 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Blue Jays +119
Toronto wins in 45% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
Toronto covers in 60% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8.5 (-101)
The Over hits in 62.7% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.4, Blue Jays 4.6