Best MLB bets today: Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, picks, props for August 21

Two heated rivals face off in the Bronx as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees in the opener of a four-game series, the last time these teams will square off at Yankee Stadium this regular season. The Yankees enter the series 1.5 games ahead of Boston for the top Wild Card spot in the American League. New York has played well of late, winning five in a row thanks to road sweeps against the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays. Boston has been trending the other way, dropping three consecutive contests entering Thursday. The two rivals will battle on Thursday, Aug. 21, at 7:15 p.m. on FOX.

Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

The Yankees will be starting Luis Gil (1-1, 5.14 ERA), and the Red Sox will start Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.63 ERA). Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year last year but started the season on IL after suffering a lat strain back in February. Gil has made three starts this season and picked up his first win of the campaign in his last outing when he allowed just one earned run in 5.1 innings against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Giolito has surrendered just one earned run in three of his past four starts.

Both pitchers' strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook are 5.5, with Giolito's Under favored at -154 (his Over is +116) and Gil's Under at -138 (his Over is +110). The SportsLine Projection Model's strongest recommendation for a pitching prop, though, is Giolito Over 15.5 outs (-119). The model has the Boston righty projected for 17.5 outs recorded in tonight's outing, making this Over a 4.5-star play (out of 5 stars). 

Unsurprisingly, Aaron Judge is favorite to homer at FanDuel odds at +200. Giancarlo Stanton is next up at +240, followed by fellow Yankees Ben Rice at +360, Trent Grisham at +420 and Jazz Chisholm at +430. Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran are the first Red Sox players to appear for this market at +480.

The Yankees are -147 money line favorites (wager $147 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Red Sox are +123 underdogs (wager $100 to win $123). The total is listed at 8.5, with the Under favored at -106. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Red Sox-Yankees at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Thursday.

BOSTON RED SOX at NEW YORK YANKEES | 8/21 | 7:15 PM ET

Money line
Pick: Yankees -147
New York wins in 60% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-173)
Boston covers in 62% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8.5 (-114)
The Over hits in 65.5% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.4, Red Sox 4.9