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The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are in the midst of the tightest divisional race in MLB this year as they enter Saturday, Aug. 23, tied for the National League West lead after San Diego took the series opener 2-1 on Friday. The teams enter Saturday 73-56, with the winner of today's game leaving with the NL West lead. First pitch from San Diego is set for 8:40 p.m. ET on FS1.

Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Dodgers vs. Padres odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

Each team will be sending out a starting pitcher who has missed a good chunk of the season. The Dodgers will give the ball to Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 3.12 ERA), who missed over two months with right shoulder inflammation. The Padres will counter with Nestor Cortes (1-2, 5.87 ERA), who suffered a left elbow flexor strain in April when he was with the Brewers and ended up only making two starts with Milwaukee before being traded to the Padres. Cortes certainly has history against the Dodgers, as the then-Yankees pitcher gave up a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the 2024 World Series.

Glasnow's strikeout prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is at 5.5 (Over -140, Under +106), while Cortes resides at 4.5 (Over -104, Under -122). The SportsLine Projection Model's top recommendation for a pitching prop is Glasnow Over 5.5 strikeouts with a projection of 6.5. The model rates this a 4.5-star play.

Shohei Ohtani has the shortest odds to homer in this game at +176, followed by teammate Teoscar Hernandez at +350. Manny Machado is the first Padres player to appear in this market at +360. If you think Freeman could have another big swing against Cortes, the Dodgers first baseman's odds to leave the yard are +420. 

Here are the SportsLine Projection Model's picks for Dodgers vs. Padres on Saturday:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS at SAN DIEGO PADRES | 8/23 | 8:40 PM ET

Money line
Pick: Padres +115
San Diego wins in 56% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Padres +1.5 (-149)
San Diego covers in 71% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-117)
The Over hits in 52.5% of simulations

Projected score: Padres 4.6, Dodgers 4.4