Best MLB bets today: Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, picks, props for August 1

After an extremely busy MLB trade deadline, the Houston Astros (62-47) and Boston Red Sox (59-51) meet in a potential playoff preview at Fenway Park for Game 1 of a three-game weekend series. The Astros made one of the bigger deadline moves, bringing infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston in a deal with Minnesota and later acquiring outfielder Jesus Sanchez and infielder Ramon Urias from Miami and Baltimore, respectively. The Red Sox were expected to make a big splash ahead of the deadline, but instead made marginal moves by trading for starting pitcher Dustin May and lefty reliever Steven Matz. First pitch for Friday's game is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. You can catch the game on Apple TV+.

Baseball fans wanting to get into MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Astros vs. Red Sox predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. 

Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.54 ERA) starts for the Astros in the series opener. The big right-hander is enjoying a career year and made his first All-Star team. He and Framber Valdez make up a stellar 1-2 punch atop Houston's rotation, and Brown is a big part of the Astros' success this year despite the team dealing with a plethora of injuries, especially in the rotation. For Friday, DraftKings has Brown set at Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts, with the Over priced +100 and the Under at -130, and the model rates Over 6.5 strikeouts 3.5 stars out of 5.

Cooper Criswell will start for the Reds Sox in his first start of the year and seventh total appearance. He was recently recalled from Triple-A, and he's been a up-and-down depth arm for the Red Sox for a few years now. He's made six relief appearances in the majors in 2025 and has a 5.06 ERA, but he does have a 3.32 Triple-A ERA this year. His strikeout prop for Friday is 2.5, with the Over at -160 and Under at +120. 

Former Astro Alex Bregman has the shortest odds to homer on the FanDuel board at +480. He's followed by Wilyer Abreu (+560), Jose Altuve (+600), Christian Walker (+600), Yainer Diaz (+630), Jesus Sanchez (+680) and Trevor Story (+700).

The Astros are -129 favorites (wager $129 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Red Sox are +109 (wager $100 to win $109) underdogs. The total is at 8, with the Over favored at -111. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Astros-Red Sox at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections for Astros vs. Red Sox on Friday.

HOUSTON ASTROS at BOSTON RED SOX | 8/1 | 7:10 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Red Sox +109
Boston wins in 58% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
Boston covers in 72% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-111)
The Under hits in 54.8% of simulations

Projected score: Red Sox 4.8, Astros 4.5