I am about a million miles from a soccer historian, but are we in the midst of the most spectacular race for the World Cup Golden Boot award for the tournament's top goalscorer? I mean, France's Kylan Mbappe, Argentina's Lionel Messi and Norway's Erling Haaland had all been tied this year with seven goals entering Tuesday's final day of Round of 16 action.
And all those countries are alive entering the quarterfinals after Messi and Argentina's stunning 3-2 late rally Tuesday in Atlanta against Egypt, which led 2-0 entering the 78th minute. Messi was unable to convert a first-half penalty but had the equalizer in the 83rd minute to retake the tournament lead with goal No. 8. It was also No. 21 career to add to his World Cup mark and his ninth straight WC game with at least a goal. That's bananas ⦠and a record.
With Wednesday the first off day of this World Cup, let's check the updated odds for the Golden Boot, which obviously shifted some after more Messi magic Tuesday.
This is the first time in WC history that three different players have scored at least seven goals in a single edition of the tournament. The record is held by France's Just Fontaine, who scored an insane 13 goals in six games in 1958.
I made sure to check the FanDuel odds before Argentina played Egypt, and entering that Messi and Mbappe were +150 co-favorites to win the Golden Boot with Haaland at +550. Now it's Messi +120, Mbappe +140 and Haaland +700. All things equal, I might favor Haaland, but his Norway side is an underdog in its quarterfinal match Saturday in Miami against England.
So currently, Norway are +550 to reach the final, while France are -115 favorites and Argentina +125. Needless to say, the more games a guy plays the better chance he has of winning the Golden Boot. If you are wondering, Messi and Haaland are in the same half of the bracket and would meet in a potential semifinal. Norway weren't supposed get this far but upset Brazil in the Round of 16 behind a wonderful Haaland brace, with the goals in the 79th and 90th minutes.
It marked Haaland's third multi-goal game in this World Cup, tied for third-most all-time in a single edition. Only two players had more: Fontaine (four in 1958) and Sandor Kocsis (four in 1954). Haaland was also the first with two goals in a World Cup match vs. Brazil since Germany had two players do so in a 2014 semifinal blowout win. Haaland is the fourth player with at least four game-winning goals in a single World Cup, and the record is five.
Finally, Haaland's seven goals are most by a player in his debut since Poland's Grzegorz Lato also had seven in 1974. To compare, Haaland's total beats the combined total of goals scored in their World Cup debuts by Messi (one), Mbappe (four) and Cristiano Ronaldo (one).
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Mbappe was the winner of the 2022 Golden Boot in Qatar four years ago with eight goals, one more than Messi. No player has won the award more than once.
We can't rule out England's Harry Kane at +800, but there is no one else below +5000. Kane has six goals, and his Three Lions could eliminate Haaland in the quarters and then Messi in the semifinals. Kane won the Golden Boot in Russia eight years ago with six goals.
Note that if there is a tie for most goals in a tournament, then FIFA uses the most assists as the first tiebreaker. If still not broken, then the award is given to the player who achieved their goals and assists in the least number of minutes.
My current pick would be Mbappe â who was the +550 favorite when the event kicked off June 11 -- for history as I think France are the strongest overall team and should play the maximum games. In addition, Mbappe has two assists, Messi one (got it Tuesday) and Haaland zero, so there's your potential tiebreaker. Plus, Argentina have looked shaky in their past two, and I'm not sure they beat England if it gets there, as I think the Brits eliminate Norway.
