Upset alert in Week 1? Why these 5 NFL favorites could easily drop their season opener

There's always blind optimism for all 32 organizations at the start of a given regular season. These NFL teams can walk into Week 1 as bullish as bulls can be about their prospects for the upcoming year. For some, they'll be vindicated and walk out of the opening weekend with a notch in the win column. For others, it'll be a humbling experience as they go back to the drawing board to figure out where things went wrong. 

It's that former collection of teams that we'll try to pinpoint with our discussion here. Of course, Week 1 always brings some surprises and upsets folks didn't see coming. That could be particularly true in 2025, as roughly half of the contests on the opening slate have a spread under the field goal. Below, we're going to highlight a handful of favorites that could very well be on upset alert in Week 1. 

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New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Raiders ML odds: +122

There's plenty of anticipation surrounding the Patriots in 2025, and if I'm not the conductor of that hype train, I have a first-class ticket on the locomotive. I like the moves they made this offseason, ranging from bolstering the defense to patching up the offensive line and hiring Mike Vrabel. However, they may be a bit vulnerable out of the gate when they host the Raiders. 

Like New England, the Raiders have improved their roster with a new head coach in Pete Carroll and a new quarterback in Geno Smith. That should raise the floor of the Las Vegas passing game, and could be where it ultimately finds an edge against the Patriots. One of the more underrated pieces of New England's summer has been All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez, who has been missing/limited over the last month due to a hamstring injury. He did not practice Monday, leaving the door wide open for him to miss the opener, thus exposing the Patriots' secondary. 

Moreover, Drake Maye enters Week 1 after a shaky preseason. He completed just 58.3% of his passes for 58 yards and a fumble in spot showings in New England's exhibitions. If he's still shaking off rust, that could result in a sluggish performance from the offense. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. New York Jets

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Jets ML odds: +120

A lot of attention will be paid to Aaron Rodgers making his return to MetLife Stadium and taking on his former Jets squad as the new quarterback of the Steelers. It's gained so much steam that Pittsburgh is the road favorite, laying 2.5 points to the Jets. While Rodgers certainly gives the Steelers some buzz, New York is live in this spot. It may even have the better option at quarterback at this juncture. 

Rodgers is coming off the worst statistical season of his career in 2024, and only flashed down the stretch because he and old Green Bay Packers buddy Davante Adams got hot. Last I checked, Adams is catching passes in Southern California, and Rodgers -- who joined Pittsburgh just before mandatory minicamp and did not play at all this preseason -- will have to quickly form a rapport with his new set of pass-catchers, headlined by DK Metcalf. As we saw during his tenure in New York, Rodgers didn't exactly mesh with new pieces right away and leaned on former Packers pass-catchers. He won't have that luxury with the Steelers, which could cause him to flounder against a defense that knows him quite well after practicing against him the last few years. 

While the Steelers are also very familiar with Fields, I can see New York leaning on its defense to limit Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense, which will allow the Jets offense to take a low-risk, run-first approach and slow the game down. 

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San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

• When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: Lumen Field (Seattle)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Seahawks ML odds: +116

The Niners are primed for a bounce-back year after they were ravaged by injuries in 2024. But I've also done a 180 on the Seahawks as the season has drawn closer. At the time, I wasn't the biggest fan of swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold, but what if it works? In his small showing in the preseason, Darnold certainly looked like he was picking up where he left off in Minnesota, and the Seattle ground game could be lethal with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet as a two-headed monster.

It also improved the offensive line and is building off a defense that was top-10 in the NFL in several key areas last year (red zone efficiency and third down in particular). I think they'll be much more competitive than fans expect, which makes them worth a look as a home underdog against San Francisco. 

As for the 49ers, the wide receiver room has been banged up all summer. So, while the likes of Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will continue to be central pieces of the offense, the unit could be limited due to a lack of depth at receiver out of the gate, particularly against this Seattle defense at home. 

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Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions

• When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI) 
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Lions ML odds: +120

As we noted in our "Week 1 early odds" piece, which was released earlier this week, this line has moved considerably. Detroit was initially the road favorite, opening at -1.5. However, that has since swung to the Packers, who have only gained steam in the aftermath of the Micah Parsons trade. Now, Green Bay is laying 2.5 and is -142 on the moneyline. That's too rich, particularly against a team as talented as the Lions. 

First, we don't even know how much Parsons will play in his debut. The former Cowboys pass rusher didn't practice throughout the summer, partially because of his contract dispute, but he is also dealing with a back injury. He reportedly may even need an epidural injection to play in the season opener. That doesn't exactly scream that Parsons is 100%, so however much his presence has inflated this spread, it could burn Green Bay backers. 

In addition to the Parsons angle, the Packers are still an unknown. Jordan Love has historically struggled out of the gate, and the club went 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS) against divisional opponents last year, which included two losses to Detroit. Yes, the Lions lost both coordinators this offseason, but they still have one of the most talented and deepest teams in the NFL. They could very well walk out of Lambeau Field with a win on Sunday.  

NFL Week 1 picks and score predictions: Lions shock Packers, Bills over Ravens

John Breech

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (Monday)

• When: 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
• TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Bears ML odds: +108

There's a remarkable amount of pressure on J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings quarterback is entering his first season as the full-time starter after being a first-round pick of the franchise in 2024. McCarthy missed all of his rookie season due to a knee injury, but after Minnesota let Sam Darnold leave in free agency, he now has the keys to the offense. Despite the talent around him, to make a virtual unknown under center a road favorite seems a bit rich. 

After all, McCarthy hasn't played a meaningful snap since the College Football Playoff National Championship, when he completed 10 of his 18 throws for 140 yards. That's not even mentioning that the Vikings are 0-6 in their last six road primetime games. To go into Soldier Field and take on a revamped Bears team led by first-year head coach Ben Johnson feels like a tall order.