Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins offense looked lost in a Week 1 blowout. Can they turn it around?

The Dolphins had an entire offseason to put a sluggish 2024 season behind them and showcase the high-speed offense that made them at least a playoff contender in their first two seasons with Mike McDaniel. 

They did not come remotely close to convincing us that 2024 was a fluke. Instead, the 33-8 embarrassment in Week 1 in Indianapolis (especially with Daniel Jones on the other sideline) shows that the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa are more lost than ever. It was their first game under McDaniel (since 2022) with zero points through three quarters. Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times on the first four drives of the game. 

Former Dolphins teammate (and current Colts cornerback) Xavien Howard didn't mince words postgame. "We knew the guy, he gets the ball out pretty quick," Howard said, per ESPN. "And once we take away his first read, I feel like it's panic mode after that. And it showed yesterday. We took away his first read and he was trying to get rid of the ball real quick."

New Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo echoed those thoughts. "There's panic-type throws where he's just not sure. Holding the ball longer than they normally do. I thought our guys did a good job in both disguising what we were trying to do as well as ending up in the right spot(s)."

McDaniel had all offseason to try and solve the blueprint defenses used to bottle up the Dolphins in 2024. Instead, Anarumo ran circles around him and took the Dolphins out of everything they wanted to do.

They took away Tagovailoa's first read at times, as Howard mentioned. Thirty-five percent of Tagovailoa's passes were with at least three seconds to throw, his highest rate in a game since 2022. He was 3-for-8 passing on those plays. His average time to throw was 2.66 seconds, up from the fastest rate in the NFL in 2024 (2.37 seconds).

Tua Tagovailoa by time to throw in Week 1

You could definitely describe Tagovailoa as in a panic on his second interception of the day.

Tagovailoa has been a different quarterback without his first read. He's 19th in EPA per play with three-plus seconds to throw in the last two seasons and eighth in under three seconds.

Tagovailoa hit very few timing routes over the middle and didn't hit any deep balls. He also threw very few passes to the left side of the field as you can see on the pass chart below. That's usually a go-to area for him, especially rolling left.

The Colts used press coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league in Week 1 (81%) and blitzed a defensive back eight times, tied for most in the league (Jaguars). Like I said, Anarumo and the Colts defense took Miami out of everything it wanted to do.

McDaniel has been lauded as a genius of sorts early in his head coaching career, so the fact that either he didn't have a good game plan or wasn't able to coach up his team to come out in Week 1 and execute is very troubling. 

A lot falls on Tagovailoa's shoulders, too. Even when he had time to throw or his first read was open, he wasn't sharp at all. He overthrew Tyreek Hill on his first interception of the game. Plus, he didn't target Jaylen Waddle twice in a three-play span in the fourth quarter when he was wide open. This one on fourth down hurts.

Tagovailoa is 33rd in the NFL in completions of 20-plus air yards in the two seasons (11) after leading that category from 2022-23 with McDaniel. He now has no margin for error without the threat of the deep ball, so to come out with a performance like this simply does not cut it. 

McDaniel seemed to agree with Howard's assessment above when asked  Wednesday. "I think I saw quarterback play that was less than to be desired, which Tua absolutely knows. He's a franchise quarterback."

This is why some say the NFL stands for "Not For Long." Somehow, in just over three years, a Miami offense that could strike quickly down the field has turned into a tortoise that is deliberate and going nowhere. 

Tagovailoa had the second-longest average pass distance in 2022 with McDaniel. It's the shortest since the start of last season. 

Tua Tagovailoa NFL ranks under Mike McDaniel (since 2022)

Hill was the most dangerous player in the league two years ago. Now we are left with no choice but to wonder if he's cooked, or if it's just Miami's offense. He has not had a catch over 30 yards in a full year. His 16 straight games without a catch that long is by far the longest drought of his career (next longest is five games).

In the worst-case scenario, you could say McDaniel has no answers, Tagovailoa is washed and Hill has lost a step. 

In the best-case scenario, it was just a Week 1 fluke and Miami will figure out how to counter what the league is doing. I'm betting on the former after this Week 1 no-show.  

Which 0-1 NFL teams need a win most? Chiefs can afford patience, Dolphins and Giants staffs under fire

Jared Dubin

The Dolphins will probably get away with it this week when they host the Patriots. Tagovailoa has won seven straight games against New England, and Miami plays its best at home in warm weather and against below-average teams.

Don't be fooled by a Week 2 bounce back, though. This has been a wildly inconsistent Dolphins team over the last few years, and now it looks like it is approaching rock bottom.