Renner's QB scouting series for 2026 NFL Draft: What makes LSU's Garrett Nussmeier the frontrunner to be QB1

Too often the draft conversation at the quarterback position devolves into physical reductionism. If arm strength + accuracy = quarterback quality, the NFL's draft track record at the position wouldn't be as shoddy as it has been the past decade.

There's something vital to playing the position at a high-level that's lost when discussing purely physical tools. There's a number of different terms people use to describe what I'm getting at -- football IQ, mental processing, etc. -- but my preferred nomenclature is the art of quarterbacking.

The reason I eschew a purely cerebral description is because the game of football has far too many potential variables to treat it like an equation to be solved. It's closer to the work a conductor does leading an orchestra where the sheet may say one thing, but adjustments have to be made on the fly to make sure all the musicians coalesce.

In this already tenuous analogy, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is the closest thing college football has this year to a grand maestro. You will not find someone who excels at the art of quarterbacking better than him in the collegiate game. That should come as very little surprise considering his father, Doug Nussmeier, is a former NFL quarterback, former NFL quarterbacks coach and current offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints.

Look up any list of top 10 quarterbacks in this draft class and chances are Nussmeier has the weakest arm, slowest 40-yard dash time and most unimposing frame of the whole group. His closest NFL comp from a purely physical perspective is early-career Kirk Cousins. Yet even with said limitations, Nussmeier had more high-level "NFL throws*" on tape last year than anyone else in the class.

*NFL throws is a catch-all term for high-difficulty downfield throws that take unique skills like anticipation, touch/layering, understanding of leverage, or pinpoint accuracy that are a higher percentage of completions at the next level.

He's not afraid to attack tight windows, and even more importantly, he's not afraid to work the middle of the field. Many college quarterbacks get by and even put up gaudy stats without needing to test the area of the field behind the box defenders and in front of the deep safeties.

The reason why I find that such an important box for prospects to tick is simple math: there's more variables for the quarterback to track on such throws. Hitting a deep dig route could theoretically require the quarterback to know and avoid the locations of four distinct defenders (two box and two deep defenders) to split their zones of responsibility for a completion. On the other hand, hitting a wide hitch or go-ball usually requires recognition of two or sometimes even one defender's location to exploit. For Nussmeier to be so adept at hitting such throws in his very first season as a collegiate starter was wildly impressive.

And he did it all in an offense that put moving the football solely on his right arm every single game. Nussmeier's 553 dropbacks last season were the fourth most in the FBS. Even on such a hefty number of dropbacks, the LSU quarterback avoided sacks extremely well. His 9.8% pressure-to-sack conversion rate, according to PFF, was an elite number and trailed only Tyler Shough in last year's draft class.

Of course, there are holes in the Tigers signal-caller's game that need to be patched up before he's seen as a top-of-the-draft prospect. 

• With the tight-window aggressiveness also came the propensity to throw the ball to the wrong team. His 12 interceptions were the fifth-most in college football last season.
• In a league where it's increasingly important to have a quarterback who commands attention in the run game, Nussmeier can be safely ignored by defenses in that regard.
• He's also significantly older than your average top quarterback prospect, as he'll be 24 years old on draft day.

The margin for error for a quarterback with his profile to go top five in the draft is razor thin. But if there's anyone I'm trusting in college football to thread the needle, it's Nussmeier.

Think Nussmeier will end up being the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? Head on over to DraftKings Sportsbook, where Nussmeier is being offered at +350 ($10 to win $35).

Garrett Nussmeier NFL Draft profile

Garrett Nussmeier

LSU • QB • #13

6-1, 205 | 23 years old | Redshirt senior

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NFL comparison: Kirk Cousins

They may not strike fear coming off the bus, but both Nussmeier and Cousins know how to play the quarterback position. They maximize their limited traits by making quick decisions, protecting themselves under pressure and aggressively attacking holes in zone coverage. Of course, the low-end comp would be someone like Mac Jones, which shows you how thin the margins can be with limited tools

Accolades

• Career: First player in LSU history to return as starting QB after having 4,000 yards passing the previous season
• Career: Two-time bowl game MVP (ReliaQuest Bowl in 2023 and Texas Bowl in 2024)
  
• 2024: Most productive first-year QB in LSU history in several statistical categories
• 2024: 4,052 passing yards rank No. 2 in program history
• 2024: 337 completions led SEC and ranked fourth in FBS
• 2024: 29 passing touchdowns tied for second in SEC and ranked 10th in FBS 

Strengths

• Fearless thrower into tight windows
• Understands leverage and how to attack zones
• Knows when to ditch plays under pressure

Weaknesses

• Limited arm strength shows on drive throws
• No rushing threat whatsoever
• Small frame that doesn't look built to take hits

What scouts are saying about Garrett Nussmeier

"NFL scouts think LSU could have end up having a top two draft pick at QB for the third time in the last seven drafts. With Arch Manning planning to remain at Texas after this season instead of turning pro, many NFL scouts view Nussmeier as the top 2026 draft prospect at quarterback. "Smart, really good processor and distributes the ball well," a NFL director of player personnel said. "Accurate, quick release thrower." -- Matt Zenitz (national NFL/national college football senior reporter for CBS Sports)

Garrett Nussmeier college stats

Garrett Nussmeier 247Sports profile

High school: Marcus (Flower Mound, Texas)
Class: 2021
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (94)

• National: 152 | QB: 19 | Texas: 27

Check out Garrett Nussmeier's full 247Sports profile, here.