Kyle Tucker free agency: Pros and cons, contract prediction, landing spots and more for star outfielder
Can the best free agent of the winter get $500 million?
By
Matt Snyder
•
6 min read
Right fielder Kyle Tucker hits free agency for the first time this offseason. He'll be 29 years old next season and is a four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, Gold Glove winner and 2022 World Series champion. He's finished as high as fifth in MVP voting before.
Ranking top 50 MLB free agents for 2026: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman at top, plus landing spots for every player
R.J. Anderson
We ranked Tucker as the best free agent available this offseason. Here's what we wrote:
Bill James once theorized that it's better for a player's perception for them to start hot and finish cold than the inverse -- that way their numbers are more impressive for a longer period of time. Tucker tested that idea. He entered July sporting a .931 OPS, but from there on he posted an ice-cold .690 mark. His downturn seems connected to injuries, specifically the fractured hand he suffered in June. Tucker still produced his fifth consecutive four-win season, so the shape of his year may prove irrelevant to teams seeking a star-level performer who is good at everything (albeit seldom ranked among the league leaders at anything).
In parts of eight seasons, Tucker -- the former first-round draft pick -- is a .273/.358/.507 (140 OPS+) hitter. His 162-game averages are 34 doubles, four triples, 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 96 runs, 25 stolen bases and 5.8 WAR.
1. Strengths
Tucker is relatively close to being a five-tool star. In the outfield, he rarely makes errors and has a decent-to-good arm. He's stolen at least 25 bases in a season three times, topping out at 30 in 2023. He's hit 30 home runs in a season twice and got to 29 in 2023. He's topped 20 homers five times. He's hit .294, .289 and .284 in his three best batting average seasons.
The bat-to-ball skills on Tucker are pretty great for a power hitter. He's never struck out 100 times in a season (his high was 95 in 2022 and that was in 609 plate appearances). The following year, he came to the plate 674 times and only struck out 92 times. Last season, he walked 87 times compared to 88 strikeouts. In this day and age, those are awfully low strikeout totals, especially for a power hitter. Last season, he was in the 98th percentile in chase percentage (that is, he very rarely chases balls outside the strike zone) and had one of the highest walk rates in baseball.
When he's right, Tucker is a monster at the plate. In just 78 games in 2024, he hit 23 home runs with a 179 OPS+. He had a 21-game stretch early last season during which he hit .357/.450/.738 with seven doubles, two triples, seven homers, 23 RBI and 24 runs. He later had an 18-game stretch in which he hit .348/.416/.609.
Tucker is also battle-tested in the playoffs. He's already played in 72 career postseason games, including 17 World Series games. He hit two homers in Game 1 of the 2022 World Series and has had several other big playoff moments.
2. Weaknesses
Though he flashed great range earlier in his career, specifically 2022, Tucker's defense has suffered a downturn and he's posted negative defensive WARs in two of the past three seasons. He was roughly a league average defender last season by several metrics, but his range dipped into the negative. That's a concern as he ages.
There's also a streakiness to Tucker's offense. I mentioned those two hot streaks from 2025, but he still ended up hitting .266 with a .464 slugging percentage on the season. There was a 25-game stretch during which Tucker hit .163 with a .186 slugging. Unfortunately, that came when the rest of the Cubs' offense was struggling mightily, too -- that is to say, exactly when they needed their star to step up and he didn't. There was word that Tucker had a pinky injury lingering from early June that affected his play. He hit .311/.404/.578 in June though. Either he was fine playing through the injury at first and it got worse later -- Tucker and Cubs said it was fully healed by August -- or he just had a horrific slump while fully healthy.
Tucker then got really hot for 11 games before suffering a calf injury that affected him the rest of the season.
The injury concerns have to be mentioned here. Tucker missed more than half of the 2024 season due to a right shin bruise from a foul ball. Then he may or may not have been adversely affected by a pinky injury in 2025 before a calf injury cost him several weeks.
He had been pretty durable before 2024 and those injuries seemed to be more bad luck than anything.
Regardless, we haven't yet seen Tucker break through the stardom ceiling and get into superstar territory yet -- at least not for a full season. His career high in single-season WAR is 5.5 while he hasn't gone for more than 30 homers or 30 steals and hasn't hit .300 or topped .400 OBP in a full season. He looked like he'd shatter a few of those marks in 2024 (he got to 5.5 WAR in 78 games), but we saw how hot and cold he can be in 2025. Is he capable of playing like an 8-WAR MVP in a full season?
If teams are looking to pay top dollar for his services in free agency, they'll be betting that he is. He just hasn't done that yet.
3. Contract prediction
Contracts keep moving higher and higher, which means the knee-jerk reaction to seeing Tucker hit free agency is to look at Juan Soto last offseason getting 15 years and $765 million, but c'mon. Soto now has at least three seasons that would've been Tucker's best and he hit free agency three years younger than Tucker. Any estimates over $600 million seem outlandish. I don't even think Tucker gets to $500 million and let's be clear: that's no insult.
The average annual value can be stretched out if a team gives Tucker 10 years to lock him up until close to 40 years old, with the assumption being that the overpay at the back end is worth it after getting the value out of the first half of the contract.
My guess to start is 10 years and $350 million, which means it'll continue to inch upward as negotiations progress (inch is a bad term there; maybe he foots or yards or miles upward?).
We'll go with $425 million over 10 years, possibly with some creative options pushing it to 12 years to spread out the money a little more. That would get him through his age-40 season.
4. Potential suitors
The Cubs should be in line if they truly think the awful stretch was due to the fluke pinky injury, but we've seen ownership in the last five or so years show a yearning to operate more as a middle-market team than a large-market team. They'll talk to him but we can probably cross them off.
The Dodgers could trade Teoscar Hernández and make a run at Tucker to play right field.
I'm not sure they'll want to spend in this deep end of the pool again after the Marcus Semien/Corey Seager offseason, but there's a fit on the Rangers, especially if they decide to move Adolis García or limit his playing time after these last two bad years.
The Phillies have a pretty terrible outfield as things stand and have shown the willingness to spend huge.
Would the Yankees try to make room? It would require Aaron Judge moving back to center field or Tucker going to left, but they made a strong run to retain Juan Soto last offseason.
The Blue Jays are said to be more focused on pitching, but if they lose Bo Bichette to free agency, Tucker is a great fit there. Addison Barger and Davis Schneider took starts in the outfield last season but can also swing into the infield while Ernie Clement can play any infield position to make things work.
The Giants have been involved in talks for the likes of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, and we know Buster Posey wants to continue to make big splashes. Tucker could work here.
