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The Las Vegas Aces are a game away from winning their third title in four years, and they can clinch that championship on Friday with a win over the Phoenix Mercury. Vegas is up 3-0 in this series after winning both Games 1 and 2 at home before escaping Phoenix with a 90-88 win in Game 3. The series remains in Arizona, where the Mercury will need a victory to keep their season alive for at least one more game.

If you're a fan of WNBA betting and are interested in placing a wager on Friday's Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 matchup, you should first see what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have locked in for this game.

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Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Wetzel and Barzilai's best bets for Las Vegas vs. Phoenix on Friday:

Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 picks:

  • Aces team total Over 83.5
  • A'ja Wilson 3+ points in every quarter

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Aces team total Over 83.5

Phoenix has had several chances to find defensive adjustments at this point, and the Mercury just haven't been able to do it. It's clear that their lack of size and length is a problem against A'ja Wilson, forcing them to either let her score over them or send a crowd and leave shooters open for 3-point attempts.

Las Vegas has cleared this number in every game of the series – by at least 5.5 points – and with one win to go to clinch their third title in four seasons, you can bet on them doing it again.

A'ja Wilson 3+ points in every quarter

This is a FanDuel market under the points tab, and it's a unique way to bet on Wilson's greatness. In the playoffs, she's done this in six of her 11 games, including all three Finals games.

She also did this in two of three regular season matchups against Phoenix, and overall has scored 3+ points in 23 of 24 quarters against the Mercury this season. At -110, this is very reasonable juice for this bet.