Are the Aces serious title contenders? Reasons for optimism, pessimism amid Las Vegas' 12-game win streak

The Las Vegas Aces' stunning late-season revival continued Wednesday when they held off a late comeback attempt from the Atlanta Dream to secure an 81-75 victory. A'ja Wilson led the way once again with 34 points, nine rebounds and four blocks, while Jackie Young recorded her second career triple-double with 10 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. 

A little over a month ago, the Aces were under .500, and on Aug. 2 they suffered a 53-point defeat to the league-leading Minnesota Lynx. While they were still clinging to a playoff spot at that point, it seemed their six-year run of postseason success and title contention was coming to an end. 

Instead, the Aces used that historic defeat to the Lynx, the second-largest in league history, as a catalyst to turn their season around. They haven't lost since then, and thanks to their 12-game winning streak -- tied for the longest in franchise history and tied for the seventh-longest in league history -- they've clinched a playoff spot and taken sole possession of second place. 

WNBA playoff picture: Standings, schedule as Aces win 12th straight game to grab control of No. 2 seed

Jack Maloney

With less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Aces control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed and homecourt advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Two weeks ago, during the middle of this winning streak, the Aces had the sixth-best odds (+2500) to win the title, per Caesars Sportsbook. Now, they've jumped up to the third-best (+550), behind only the Lynx and reigning champion New York Liberty. 

So, is it time to start taking the Aces seriously as a title contender? 

Reason for optimism: They have the best player

It remains to be seen if A'ja Wilson will win a record fourth MVP due to the Aces' poor first half of the season, but there's no question she's the best player in the league. When you have the best player, you always have a chance, especially in the WNBA's playoff format which features a best-of-three first round and best-of-five semifinals. 

Wilson had her 11th 30-point game of the season on Wednesday -- six have them have come during the winning streak -- and is now averaging 23.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.2 blocks. She's second in scoring, second in rebounding, eighth in steals and first in blocks. No other player is in the top three in scoring, rebounding and blocks. 

Wilson's ability to take over a game is largely unmatched, and we have plenty of evidence that the two-time champion and 2023 Finals MVP is able to raise her game in the postseason. No team is going to sign up to deal with Wilson in the playoffs. That was the case even when they were struggling, and is even more true now. 

Reason for pessimism: Wilson doesn't have enough help

Even when they were winning back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, the Aces have never had awesome depth. At their peak, though, their core four of Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum was so elite that it didn't matter. In 2023, during both the regular season and playoffs, all four of those players averaged at least 15 points per game. 

While Wilson is arguably even better than she was back then, and Young -- who made her fourth consecutive All-Star appearance this season -- remains one of the most consistent players in the league, Gray is not the same player she was prior to her foot injury in the 2023 Finals and Jewell Loyd has been a step down from Plum. 

Even during this winning streak, when Loyd -- now coming off the bench -- and Gray have played much better than they did early in the season, that duo is only averaging a combined 22.8 points on 44% shooting. Is that level of production from your third- and fourth-best players enough to win a title? 

And that's to say nothing of the supporting cast. Becky Hammon has largely been relying on seven players during this winning streak and three of them are NaLyssa Smith, Dana Evans and Kierstan Bell. Is there reason to trust any of them in the playoffs?

Smith has been very solid since arriving from the Dallas Wings in a mid-season trade, and has given them a major boost of athleticism and energy in the frontcourt. Her effort and rebounding should translate to the postseason, but is she going to continue shooting 57% like she has been during this winning streak? 

Evans, likewise, has been on a heater over the last 12 games. She's shooting 15 of 29 (51.8%) from 3-point range and averaging 7.3 points off the bench. She's a better shooter than she showed prior to the winning streak when she was shooting 31.7% from downtown, but she's not going to make half of her 3s in the playoffs. 

Bell, frankly, has never been a productive player in her career. She was inserted into the starting lineup in place of Loyd late last month largely because Hammon didn't have any other options, and is putting up 4.1 points on 33.3% shooting during this 12-game winning streak. 

Even with better production from Loyd and Gray, and Smith and Evans shooting well above their norms, Wilson has still accounted for 30.7% of the Aces' points during this winning streak. Wilson and Young combined are at 49% of the Aces' points. That's a ridiculous burden for Wilson, in particular, to carry over an entire postseason. 

Reason for optimism: What history says

The Aces are the 10th team in WNBA history to win 12 consecutive games during a single season (there have been 11 instances of a 12-game winning streak, but the 2000 Los Angeles Sparks had two of them in the same season). 

Four of the previous nine teams won the title, five made the Finals and eight made at least the semifinals. Ironically, only the 2012 San Antonio Silver Stars -- who eventually moved to Las Vegas to become the Aces -- failed to get out of the first round. The Stars' point guard that season? Aces coach Becky Hammon. 

Odd bit of trivia aside, history says that teams capable of rattling off winning streaks like the one the Aces are on will find playoff success. 

Longest winning streaks in WNBA history

Reason for pessimism: They're barely scraping by

During this winning streak, the Aces have the second-best offensive rating (113.1), second-best defensive rating (100) and best net rating (plus-13.1) in the league. However, those numbers have been boosted by a few blowout wins. For the most part, they've been scraping by. 

Eight of the Aces' 12 wins in this span have come by single digits, and seven have come by six points or fewer. They are a remarkable 7-0 during clutch games -- score within five points in the final five minutes -- during their winning streak with 50/72.7/86.4 shooting splits in clutch minutes. 

Are there positives to take from the Aces' performance in late-game situations? Of course. However, this has not been some dominant 12-game run where the Aces are running roughshod over the rest of the league, and they've enjoyed some serious shooting luck on both ends lately. Notably, their opponents are shooting 26.9% from 3-point range over the last 12 games. 

For what it's worth, Basketball Reference has the Aces' expected record at 21-18, well below their actual 25-14 mark. 

Reason for optimism: Their homecourt advantage

The Aces have received tremendous support from Las Vegas ever since moving to the city in 2018. Since they became a legitimate playoff contender in 2019, Michelob Ultra Arena has been one of the toughest venues for opponents. 

Including this season, and not including the 2020 bubble season, the Aces are 85-25 at home in the regular season and 14-4 at home in the playoffs since 2019. When they won their back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, they were a combined 11-1 at home in the postseason. 

This summer, they're 14-5 with a plus-4.9 net rating at home and 12-9 with a minus-1.2 net rating on the road. Thanks to this 12-game winning streak, they now control their destiny for the No. 2 seed, which would give them homecourt advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. If they finish with the No. 2 seed, they could get to the Finals without having to win a road game.

Reason for pessimism: The Lynx problem

The Aces have the best player, have won 12 games in a row, are likely going to be the No. 2 seed and boast an excellent homecourt advantage. It would be silly not to call them a contender at this point, especially insofar as that means they have a legitimate chance of reaching the Finals. 

But can the Aces win it all? Perhaps the biggest reason for pessimism on that front is the existence of the Minnesota Lynx. Here are the results from the three times those teams have met this season:

• June 17: Lynx 76, Aces 62
• July 25: Lynx 109, Aces 78
• Aug. 2: Lynx 111, Aces 58

All of those games came before the Aces' turnaround and regular seasons results don't guarantee anything come playoff time, but when you've lost to a team three times by a combined 98 points, that's a serious problem. The Aces will have one more shot at the Lynx in the regular season on Sept. 4, which should give us a better indication of what this matchup could look like in the postseason. 

Perhaps the Aces get lucky and someone else takes out the Lynx, but if they want to win the title they'll most likely have to go through Napheesa Collier and Co. And even with how well the Aces have been playing lately, it's hard to see that happening.