2026 WNBA Draft Lottery: Which team needs the No. 1 overall pick the most?

The WNBA offseason has been put on hold as the labor fight between the league and the players continues, but while the expansion draft, free agency and the 2026 WNBA Draft cannot take place until the two sides come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement, the league can hold the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery. 

The annual event, which will determine which team receives the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft, as well as the full lottery order, is set for Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. 

Notably, the five teams that missed out on the playoffs in 2025 -- the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics -- are not the five teams in the lottery. 

2026 WNBA Draft Lottery: Where to watch, date, time, TV, livestream, teams involved, odds for No. 1 pick

Jack Maloney

The Sky owe their first-round pick to the Minnesota Lynx and the Sparks owe their first-round pick to the Seattle Storm. In addition, the Sun owe swap rights to their first-round pick to the Sky. Because the Sky also own the Phoenix Mercury's first-rounder, the Sky will get the more favorable of the Sun/Mercury picks, while the Sun will get the least favorable of those selections. With the Sun in the lottery and the Mercury in the playoffs, the Sky are guaranteed to receive the Sun's pick. 

Here's a quick reminder of the odds. 

As you can see, the Wings have by far the best chance at the No. 1 pick. But which team needs the No. 1 pick the most? Let's break things down team-by-team. 

5. Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx were seconds away from winning the 2024 title and tied the all-time single-season wins record in 2025 before suffering a playoff collapse that was partly the result of injuries. Barring an unexpected exodus from Minneapolis this winter, the Lynx are going to have one of the best rosters in the league again next season. 

Could they use the No. 1 pick? Sure, who couldn't? Do they need the No. 1 pick? Absolutely not. The bad news for the rest of the league is that they have the second-best odds to get it at 26.1%. 

One interesting thing to consider with the Lynx is whether they would trade the top pick (or whichever pick they wind up with) for a more established player(s) who could help them win a title right now. Nearly every single veteran being a free agent this winter could make that tricky, though. 

The No. 1 pick hasn't been dealt since 2022, when the Mystics traded it to the Atlanta Dream, who ended up selecting Rhyne Howard. 

4. Seattle Storm

Despite another underwhelming regular season in 2025, the Storm were seconds away from upsetting the eventual champion Las Vegas Aces in the first round of the playoffs. Instead, the Storm went home early for the second year in a row -- they've won one playoff series since their title in 2020 -- and coach Noelle Quinn was fired. She has since been replaced with Sonia Raman, who was most recently an assistant with the New York Liberty. 

More so than most teams, it will be interesting to see what the Storm do in free agency this winter. They've had plenty of talent over the last few seasons, but the sum has been less than its parts. Do they attempt to run it back with a new coach? Or do they make a few alterations to try and find a group that fits better? 

Barring a complete teardown, which is unlikely, the Storm are going to have a strong roster again. At the very least, their promising young group of Dominique Malonga, Jordan Horston and Nika Mühl -- the latter two missed the 2025 season with torn ACLs -- will be around to provide a path to the future. 

If the Lynx win the No. 1 pick, that would be unfair for the rest of the league. No one would say the same if the Storm get it, but Seattle definitely does not need it as much as the three teams above them. 

3. Washington Mystics

The Mystics were more competitive than everyone expected last season, and hovered around .500 and the back-end of the playoff picture until mid-August. A deadline deal that sent All-Star guard Brittney Sykes to the Storm helped ensure they would not accidentally make the postseason, and they ended up losing their final 10 games. 

This is the second consecutive lottery appearance for the Mystics, who once again have three first-round picks: their own, the Storm's first (No. 9) via the Sykes deal and the Liberty's first (No. 11), which was re-routed their way in the Aaliyah Edwards for Jacy Sheldon trade. 

The Mystics nailed last year's draft. Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen were both All-Stars as rookies, and look like long-term franchise cornerstones. Georgia Amoore missed last season due to an ACL injury, but she'll be back in 2026 and even Lucy Olsen contributed as a second-round pick. They also traded for Sheldon, have Shakira Austin as a restricted free agent and Madison Scott and Emily Engstler as reserved free agents. 

There is an abundance of young talent in Washington, and the future looks bright, especially with three more first-round picks on the way next spring. The No. 1 pick would be a huge bonus for the Mystics, but they're already on the right path with their rebuild. 

2. Dallas Wings

The Wings won the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes last season when they secured the No. 1 pick for just the second time in franchise history. As expected, she was tremendous in her rookie campaign. She finished fifth in the league in scoring, ninth in assists and sixth in assists, tied the single-game rookie scoring record, won Rookie of the Year, was named an All-Star and made the All-WNBA Second Team. 

A good rule of thumb is that if a franchise won the previous draft lottery, it cannot be the one most in need of the top pick again the next year -- especially when the prize was a player of Bueckers' caliber. The Wings put that rule to the test, however. 

Last season did not go to plan in Dallas. The team was beset by injuries, traded DiJonai Carrington and NaLyssa Smith and finished in last place at 10-34, which tied the league's single-season losses record. Chris Koclanes, who appeared out of his depth as a head coach, was fired shortly after the end of his first season in charge. 

While the Wings need a lot of help, there is hope for the future. First and foremost, Bueckers is already an All-WNBA caliber player and will likely be in MVP discussions at some point in her career. Aziaha James and JJ Quinerly also had some promising moments as rookies, and Maddy Siegrist and Diamond Miller are under contract for 2026. There is young talent in Dallas and Curt Miller is a widely respected executive. Plus, new coach Jose Fernandez is far more experienced -- albeit on the collegiate level -- than Koclanes was.  

The Wings could really use the No. 1 pick, especially given their lack of depth in the frontcourt, but they aren't No. 1 on this list. 

1. Chicago Sky

Since their inception in 2006, the Sky have missed the playoffs 11 times, but have never won the lottery. In fact, aside from the Golden State Valkyries and the two incoming expansion teams, the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire -- all three of which have never been in the lottery -- the Sky are the only active franchise that has never had the No. 1 overall pick. 

That alone qualifies them to be at the top of this list, nevermind the fact that their 2025 campaign was an abject disaster. 

General manager Jeff Pagliocca made a number of win-now moves last winter, only for the team to go 10-34 and tie the league's single-season losses record. Injuries didn't help, but even when everyone was healthy, the team wasn't good enough. Despite finishing tied for the worst record in the league, the Sky are lucky to even have a lottery selection. They owe their 2026 first to the Lynx, but through a series of other deals have control of the Sun's first-rounder

To make matters worse, the organization appeared to alienate star forward Angel Reese after suspending her for one half following an interview she gave to the Chicago Tribune in which she publicly criticized her teammates. Reese is under contract through 2027, when the Sky have a team option, but how long she'll remain on the roster remains to be seen. A trade request this winter would not be a major surprise. 

As long as Reese is in town, the Sky have a star to build around. She's the best rebounder in the league, a strong defender, and, after a dreadful start to last season, made tremendous strides on the offensive end with her finishing and playmaking. Outside of Reese, however, there's not much to write home about. 

Kamilla Cardoso is a very solid player, but has been inconsistent to start her career and it's unclear if she and Reese can actually coexist. Hailey Van Lith really struggled during her rookie campaign and Maddy Westbeld didn't do much outside of the final game. Ajša Sivka is an exciting prospect who should come over this season, but we've never seen her in the WNBA. 

The Sky desperately need the No. 1 pick, even if the top two prospects right now appear to be bigs (Awa Fam and Lauren Betts), which is a bit unlucky given their biggest need is in the backcourt. But because the Sky are in the lottery via the Sun, they only have a 5.5% chance to get the top pick.