2026 WNBA championship odds: Why Fever are nearly co-favorites, Valkyries an interesting long shot

The 2025 WNBA season came to a close last week when the Las Vegas Aces completed a four-game sweep of the Phoenix Mercury in the Finals -- the league's first ever best-of-seven series  -- to win their third title in the last four years. 

While much remains up in the air about the 2026 season, it's never too early to start thinking about next season. The 2026 title odds have been released by Caesars, and to no surprise, the Aces have been installed as co-favorites alongside the Minnesota Lynx, who were the top seed in the 2025 playoffs. The Indiana Fever are just behind those two at +340. 

Here are the odds for all 15 teams, including the two expansion clubs that will join next season, the Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo. 

2026 WNBA title odds

This will be the most consequential offseason in league history. 

First and foremost, the Women's National Basketball Players Association and the WNBA are still negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement, which is expected to bring substantial raises for all players, and perhaps a new economic model. As a result, nearly every veteran will be a free agent this winter. Kalani Brown and Lexie Brown are the only players not on rookie-scale deals who are under contract for 2026. 

There will also be a double expansion draft at some point, which will allow the Fire and Tempo to fill out their initial rosters. The date and exact rules for that event will not be known until the new CBA is in place, but however the process works, it will have a major impact on all of the current teams. 

Add in the draft and potential trades, and there figures to be more player movement than ever this winter. Rosters around the league could look substantially different, which makes it tricky to analyze the 2026 title odds in any serious depth at this point. Still, it's worth making note of a few things here. 

Should the Aces actually be the favorites?

Except in rare circumstances, such as a star player retiring, the reigning champions in every sport are always the early favorites for the next season. Repeats are quite rare, though, and the Aces had a unique season. So while it's not a surprise to see them atop this list, it's fair to wonder if they should actually be the favorites. 

On the one hand, A'ja Wilson, the reigning MVP, co-Defensive Player of the Year and Finals MVP, will almost surely be back. Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray will probably return to Vegas as well, and they have an excellent coach in Becky Hammon and a supportive ownership group. They'll also have a chance to reset their depth after really struggling in that department for a few seasons. 

However, they weren't super convincing en route to their title. They were below .500 after the mid-point of the season, needed a last-second basket from Jackie Young in the deciding Game 3 of the first round to sneak past the Seattle Storm, were taken to overtime in the winner-take-all Game 5 of the semifinals by an extremely shorthanded Indiana Fever team and had some harrowing moments in the Finals against the Mercury. 

As long as Wilson, Young and Gray are back, the Aces are going to be in the mix next season, but it doesn't make sense to bet them at this number after the season they just had. 

Why the Fever are nearly co-favorites

The Fever showed incredible resilience to get within five minutes of the Finals despite losing five players, including Caitlin Clark, to season-ending injuries. They upset the Atlanta Dream in the first round of the playoffs, then forced the Aces to overtime in the deciding Game 5 of the semifinals. 

They are just behind the Aces and Minnesota Lynx in the 2026 title odds, and at +340 are nearly co-favorites. Why?

The Fever's youth is a major advantage this offseason. While you'd expect many stars to return to their current teams in free agency, nothing is guaranteed. But because Clark and Aliyah Boston are still on rookie scale deals, the Fever are guaranteed to return two of their best players. No other team has as much talent under contract for 2026

If the Fever are able to re-sign Kelsey Mitchell, they'll have a terrific Big Three. They also have a top coach in Stephanie White, a rabid fanbase and an ownership group that is all in. They should be an attractive destination for free agents this winter and could easily have one of the best rosters in the league in 2026. 

The Fever's outsized popularity is another factor here. Just like the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Yankees and Dallas Cowboys in their respective sports, the sportsbooks know that more people are going to bet on the Fever than any other team, so they have to price their odds accordingly to avoid a massive liability. 

Are the Liberty being disrespected?

The Liberty got off to a 9-0 start in 2025, but had major injury problems the rest of the way and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Mercury. A few days after their season-ending loss, they parted ways with long-time coach Sandy Brondello less than a year after she led them to the title. 

The Liberty currently do not have a coach, and their best players are all free agents. Still, it's a bit surprising that they have the fourth-best odds at +500. 

Their Big Three of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones have all expressed interest in returning. The Liberty had a plus-21.2 net rating when those three were on the floor together this season and they went 13-0 in games they all started and finished. If those three do indeed return to Brooklyn, the Liberty are going to be a contender regardless of what happens with their coaching search and the rest of their roster. 

Betting on the title before free agency is obviously a risk, but you likely won't be able to get the Liberty at this number next spring. 

Valkyries are an interesting long shot

There were a lot of questions about the Valkyries' direction after their expansion draft last year, but they nailed every decision they've made, both on and off the court. They went 23-21 last season to earn the No. 8 seed and become the first expansion team to make the playoffs in their inaugural season. 

Natalie Nakase was named Coach of the Year, Veronica Burton was named Most Improved Player and they set WNBA records for average (18,064) and total (397.408) attendance. While they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Lynx, they walked off the court with their heads held high. 

No one knows what the Valkyries' roster is going to look like in 2026, but they've built an incredible infrastructure and have one of the most forward-thinking, aggressive ownership groups. Notably, during the press conference to officially announce the team back in 2023, Joe Lacob proclaimed that they would win a title within five years. 

Could they do so as soon as 2026? The sportsbooks clearly don't think so, as they've given them the eighth-best odds at +3500. With respect to Burton, the Valkyries do not have a true star player in place, which is the main reason for the title skepticism. 

They have an electric homecourt advantage, a great coach and play in the Bay Area, though, so it's well within the realm of possibility that they add some big names in free agency this winter. That makes them an interesting long shot right now.