untitled-design-30.png
Getty Images

The semifinals of the 2025 WNBA playoffs will resume Friday night with a pair of pivotal Game 3s featuring the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx against the Phoenix Mercury and the second-seeded Las Vegas Aces versus the Indiana Fever. Both best-of-five matchups are all square at 1-1. The action will then continue with a pair of Game 4s on Sunday. 

Will any of these four teams punch their ticket to the Finals this weekend? Will the Finals matchup be set? Or will we go to sleep Sunday night pondering two winner-take-all Game 5s early next week? The possibilities for this weekend are endless.

Here's the schedule for Friday and Sunday:

Friday, Sept. 26

  • Game 3: Fever vs. Aces, 7:30 p.m. ET -- ESPN2/fubo
  • Game 3: Mercury vs. Lynx, 9:30 p.m. ET -- ESPN2/fubo

Sunday, Sept. 28

  • Game 4: Fever vs. Aces, 3 p.m. ET -- ABC/fubo
  • Game 4: Mercury vs. Lynx, 8 p.m. ET -- ESPN/fubo

Before the action begins, let's take a look at one key x-factor for each team who could swing this weekend in their favor. 

Lynx: Bridget Carleton

This was a somewhat disappointing season for Carleton, who finished third in Most Improved Player voting in 2024. Her numbers were down across the board, and she was markedly less efficient. Her 3-point percentage dropped from 44.4% to 37.3%, and her true shooting percentage from 60.4% to 52.6%. 

In the playoffs thus far, Carleton has largely been a non-factor on the offensive end. She's scored five or fewer points in three of the five games, including just two in the Lynx's Game 2 collapse. Her 0 of 7 shooting performance, including 0 of 5 from 3-point range, is glaring in the Game 2 box score. 

Carleton is never going to put up huge numbers, but the Lynx need her to start hitting some shots. They're a much better team when she's making teams pay for sending multple defenders at Napheesa Collier, Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride. 

In the regular season and playoffs combined, the Lynx are 27-5 when Carleton makes a 3-pointer and 8-6 when she does not. She's had good looks through the first two games of this matchup and will contine to get them against an aggressive Mercury defense. 

Mercury: Kathryn Westbeld

Can you guess which player on the Mercury has the best on/off differential in the playoffs? If the header of this section didn't give it away, it's Kathryn Westbeld, their 29-year-old rookie. During the postseason, the Mercury have a plus-32.2 net rating with Westbeld on the floor and a minus-5.7 net rating when she's on the bench. 

The Mercury's starting lineup has gotten crushed during the playoffs (minus-19.4 net rating) because there's just not enough shooting. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack won't even look at the basket outside of 12-15 feet and rookie guard Monique Akoa Makani, who was great during the regular season, has looked overwhelmed. After shooting 39.5% from behind the arc in the regular season, Akoa Makani is at 16.7% in the postseason. 

Westbeld is a streaky shooter -- 32.1% from 3-point range in the regular season -- but her ability to space the floor as a small-ball five opens up so much for the Mercury's offense. When she's on the court the Lynx cannot pack the paint defensively in the same way. 

Look how congested the lane is when Kahleah Copper tries to drive on the first possession of Game 2. Alanna Smith is already parked under the basket and Napheesa Collier and Courtney Williams also have a foot in the paint. 

Now watch this possession from the third quarter when Westbeld is in the game (along with Sami Whitcomb). Jessica Shepard has to respect her shooting, so she's out in the corner and the Lynx have no one available to help on the Thomas-Akoa Makani pick-and-roll, which leads to an easy bucket. 

Westbeld's presence itself is impactful. When she's actually knocking down 3s the Mercury's offense goes to another level. She had two 3s and eight points in 15 minutes during their incredible comeback in Game 2, and it will be interesting to see how much she plays in Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Aces: NaLyssa Smith

The Aces' decision to give up an unprotected 2027 first-round pick for Smith back in June raised a lot of eyebrows at the time. Smith, the former No. 2 overall pick, had been terrible for the Dallas Wings and the Aces, who were .500 at the time, did not look like contenders. 

Fast forward a few months, and it's hard to imagine where this Aces team would be without Smith. She has looked revitalized in Las Vegas and has been a major upgrade over former starting center Kiah Stokes, who opponents generally pretended didn't exist on the offensive end. 

Smith was particularly impressive during the Aces' 16-game winning streak to close the regular season, and has had some big games during the playoffs. 

On the Aces' first possession of Game 2, Smith cut into the lane and sent Natasha Howard tumbling as she bullied her way to the basket for an easy layup. She finished with 17 points and seven rebounds in the best playoff performance of her career, and the Aces cruised to a blowout win. 

When Smith is engaged on both ends and taking some of the scoring burden away from A'ja Wilson, the Aces are very difficult to beat. Since Smith joined the team, the Aces are 12-2 in the regular season and playoffs when Smith scores in double figures. Can she step up again on the road? 

Fever: Lexie Hull

The last thing the Fever needed during the playoffs was for another player to pop up on the injury report, but ahead of Game 2, Lexie Hull was listed as questionable due to a back issue. Hull ended up playing, however, and tied a franchise playoff record with five 3-pointers for a personal playoff career-high 15 points. 

While the Fever ended up losing Game 2 by 22 points, they'll have to hope that Hull found something with her shot and can carry that confidence into Games 3 and 4 at home. 

After an excellent 2024 campaign, during which she shot 47.1% to help the Fever make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, Hull struggled to find any sort of consistency on the offensive end in a bigger role this season. She was removed from the starting lineup in the middle of the season, had five games where she went scoreless and shot just 36.7% from behind the arc. 

Hull is the team's best perimeter defender and has a tremendous amount of responsibility on that end of the floor. But with so many key players out due to injury, including Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham, the Fever really need some offense from Hull if they want to pull off another major upset in this series. 

How healthy will Hull look in Games 3 and 4? And can she knock down some shots to take pressure off Kelsey Mitchell? The answers to those questions may determine whether this series ends this weekend or heads back to Las Vegas for a winner-take-all Game 5.