2025 WNBA MVP breakdown: Why A'ja Wilson deserves honor over Napheesa Collier, Alyssa Thomas in historic race

Napheesa Collier is the best player on the league's best team. A'ja Wilson is the best player in the world. Alyssa Thomas is putting up numbers no one has ever seen before. 

All have a clear case for MVP, but only one can win.

The 2025 MVP race has not quite matched the 2023 edition -- it's unlikely we'll ever see something like that again -- but it's right up there as one of the most memorable in league history thanks to three historic individual performances and a unique late-season twist. 

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Robby Kalland

The regular season will come to a close on Thursday night and MVP votes are due on Friday afternoon. I am once again honored to be an official awards voter. Ahead of Friday's deadline, here is an in-depth breakdown of the MVP race and an explanation of my full ballot. 

What do the stats say?

Basic stats

All three have had remarkable statistical seasons and make a major impact on both sides of the ball. 

• Collier is second in the league in scoring, ninth in rebounding, third in steals and fifth in blocks. 
• Thomas is third in rebounding, first in assists and fourth in steals. 
• Wilson is first in the league in scoring, second in rebounding, sixth in steals and first in blocks. 

Advanced stats

To no surprise, these three are all advanced stats darlings. Here are a few quick notes:

• Collier has been the most efficient player of the bunch thanks to her elite 3-point and free throw shooting. Because of her injuries, she has been passed by Wilson for total win shares, but still has the most win shares per 40 minutes.
• Thomas' 53.3% assist rate (the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while they were on the floor) is the highest recorded in a season WNBA history by a wide margin (minimum 500 minutes played). 
• While PER is certainly imperfect, Wilson's 33.3 mark would be the fourth-highest in a season in league history. 

Overall team performance

Collier, Minnesota Lynx

• 33-10, No. 1 seed (locked in)

After a devastating defeat in the 2024 Finals, one Collier said she'll "never get over," the Lynx have been on a mission all season. They jumped out to a 9-0 start and have had at least a share of first place for all but a few days. They were 17-2 and 28-5 at various points, and became the first team to clinch a playoff spot on Aug. 12. On Aug. 30, nearly two weeks before the end of the season, they secured the No. 1 overall seed and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Though they cooled off a bit down the stretch, they still set a franchise record for wins in a season and could tie the 2023 Aces for the most wins in a season in WNBA history with a victory on Thursday in their final game.

The Lynx are 26-6 with Collier in the lineup, compared to 7-4 without her. When she was on the floor, the Lynx had a pus-16.5 net rating, and when she was off the floor they had a plus-4.3 net rating. 

Thomas, Phoenix Mercury

• 27-16, No. 4 seed (locked in)

The Mercury completely revamped their roster this offseason and brought in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to form a new big three alongside Kahleah Copper. That trio was joined by a host of rookies and largely unheralded veterans, and it was unclear how such a top-heavy roster was going to work. Thanks in large part to Thomas' individual brilliance, the Mercury's experiment has been sucessful. They ran hot and cold at times, but hovered in the top three-to-five spots for the majority of the season. Earlier this week, they clinched the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. 

With Thomas in the lineup, the Mercury are 25-13, compared to 2-3 without her. When she was on the floor, the Mercury had a plus-8.4 net rating, and when she was off the floor they had a minus-4.7 net rating. 

Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

• 29-14, No. 3 seed (could rise to No. 2)

After an early-season loss to the expansion Golden State Valkyries, Aces coach Becky Hammon ripped her team's approach, saying "I"m not going to coach effort." As the calendar flipped to August, it was clear her message still wasn't getting across. On Aug. 2, the Lynx waltzed into Las Vegas and won 53 points -- the second-largest margin in a game in league history. That embarrassing defeat finally spurred the Aces into action. They haven't lost since then, and their historic 15-game winning streak has propelled them from eighth place to third. If they beat the Los Angeles Sparks on the final day of the season they'll earn the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. The league has simply never seen this sort of late-season turnaround. While the Aces' poor start cannot be forgotten, it would be remarkable if they run the table and win their final 16 games. 

With Wilson in the lineup, the Aces are 28-11, compared to 1-3 without her. When she was on the floor, the Aces had a plus-10.8 net rating, and when she was off the floor they had a minus-15 net rating. 

Head-to-head matchups

Napheesa Collier 

• vs. Aces: 3-1

Collier and the Lynx were 3-1 against the Aces this season, and won the first three games by a combined 98 points, including a historic 53-point victory on Aug. 2 -- the game that swung not only the MVP race but spurred the Aces' incredible turnaround. 

Less than a week ago, however, the Lynx lost to the Aces by double digits in a game in which Collier was clearly outplayed by Wilson. It's also worth noting that Collier left two of the Lynx's wins over the Aces early: June 17 due to a back injury and Aug. 2 due to an ankle injury. 

As a result, Collier's averages against the Aces weren't particularly impressive: 15.5 points, six rebounds and 2.8 assists on 46.7% shooting. 

• vs. Mercury: 2-1

The Lynx were 3-1 against the Mercury this season, but Collier missed their victory on July 30 with a knee injury. In the three games she did play against the Mercury, Collier wasn't at her best. In fact, her 10 points in the Lynx's July 16 win were the fewest she scored in a full game this season. 

Here are Collier's averages against the Mercury: 15.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 46.7% shooting. 

Alyssa Thomas

• vs. Lynx: 1-1

The Mercury were 1-2 against the Lynx this season, but Thomas missed the first defeat due to a calf injury. They split the two games in which Thomas was active, and her performance was the difference in those contests. She went off for 29 points, eight rebounds and five assists in their win and was held to 12 points, five rebounds and nine assists in the defeat. 

Thomas' averages against the Lynx: 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, seven assists on 47.5% shooting. 

• vs. Aces: 1-3

The Mercury lost the season series to each of the three teams above them in the standings, and that included the Aces, who won three of their four meetings. Thomas, to her credit, played well in the majority of the matchups, and notably had a 14-point, 13-assist effort in their lone win. 

Thomas, who appeared in all four games against the Aces, averaged 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and nine assists on 51.1% shooting in those contests. 

A'ja Wilson

• vs. Lynx: 1-2

The Aces were generally embarrassed by the Lynx this season. In their first three meetings, they lost by 14 points -- Wilson missed this game due to a concussion -- 31 points and 53 points, the latter being the second-largest margin in league history. Wilson was largely ineffective in the first two games she played against the Lynx. 

When the teams met for a fourth time earlier this month, however, Wilson and the Aces were ready. Wilson went off for 31 points and eight rebounds to lead the Aces to a 10-point win. Notably her 31 points were the highest-scoring effort by any of these three players in a head-to-head game against one of the other two. 

Still, Wilson's overall marks against the Lynx don't stand out: 18.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 56.8% shooting. 

• vs. Mercury: 3-0

The Aces went 3-1 against the Mercury this season, but were 3-0 against them when Wilson was in the lineup. She missed their loss to the Mercury on June 16 because she was in the concussion protocol. When Wilson was healthy, she generally had her way against a thin Phoenix frontcourt and recorded double-doubles in all three contests, including a 30-point, 16-rebound effort last month. 

Here are Wilson's averages against the Mercury: 25 points, 15.7 rebounds and three assists on 45.1% shooting. 

What other players think

Earlier this summer, The Athletic conducted an anonymous player poll and published a series of stories based on the results. One of the most notable questions asked, "Who is the WNBA's best player?" Thirty-six players responded, or just about one-fourth of the league. 

To no surprise, Collier and Wilson were miles ahead of every other player. In fact, Breanna Stewart was the only other player to receive more than one vote. Here are the results from that poll:

• Napheesa Collier: 17 votes
• A'ja Wilson: 15 votes
• Breanna Stewart: 2 votes
• Allisha Gray: 1 vote
• Alyssa Thomas: 1 vote

It's important to note that the results of this poll were conducted in July, well before the Aces began their incredible turnaround. And, of course, we have no idea which players were voting. "Best player" doesn't necessarily mean MVP, either. 

Still, this is an interesting data point, if only because it shows that other players believe that Collier and Wilson are on a different tier than everyone else. 

Historic accomplishments

All of these players have made history this season. Let's take a closer look at their feats: 

Collier

• Became the 10th player to average at least 23 points per game in a season
• Recorded the 12th-highest single-season scoring average (23)
• Became the third player to record at least 700 points, 50 steals and 50 blocks in a season
• Became one of three players to average 23/7/3 in a season, joining Maya Moore and Wilson (also this season)
• Fell one made 3-pointer short of joining Elena Delle Donne as the second player with a 50/40/90 season. She has 52.6/39.2/90.6 shooting splits

Thomas

• Set the WNBA's single-season triple-double record (eight)
• Strengthened her hold on the WNBA's all-time triple-double record (19)
• Became the first player to record three consecutive triple-doubles
• Set the WNBA's single-season assist record (352)
• Became the second player to average at least nine assists per game for a season (9.3)
• Became the first player ever to average 15/9/9 in a season
• Recorded her second season with at least 500 points, 300 rebounds and 300 assists. No one else in league history has one such season

Wilson

• Recorded the seventh-highest single-season scoring average (23.4)
• Recorded the most 30-point games in a single season in league history (13)
• Moved into second place on the league's all-time 30-point games list (37)
• On pace to become eighth player to win multiple scoring titles and fifth to win the scoring title in back-to-back seasons
• Became the league's all-time leader in 30-point, 15-rebound games (seven)
• Became the first player ever to record a 30-point, 20-rebound game
• Became the fastest player to 5,000 points in league history (238 games)

Final ballot

1. A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

Wilson was very good early in the season, but she wasn't the unstoppable force we've become accustomed to watching over past few seasons. Between a number of poor shooting performances, a concussion and the Aces' sub-.500 record, Wilson was well back in the MVP race. 

Over the last six weeks, however, she has played some of the best basketball of her career while leading the Aces on a historic 15-game winning streak. One more win Thursday in their finale and they'll earn the No. 2 seed. During this winning streak, which has comprised over one-third of the season, Wilson is averaging 27.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.2 blocks while shooting 53.8% from the field. 

For the season, Wilson leads the league in scoring, is second in rebounding, sixth in steals and first in blocks. No other player is in the top-six in all four categories. As great as Collier and Thomas have been this season, Wilson is the clear choice for MVP. If she wins, she will become the first player in WNBA history to earn the honor four times. 

2. Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Collier was awesome this summer, the Lynx were awesome this summer, but ultimately she just missed too many games. 

While the WNBA does not have an official minimum games played threshold for major awards like the NBA does, Collier will have missed 11 games and 25% of the season even if she suits up in the Lynx's finale on Thursday. That's far more games and a far bigger percentage of the season missed than any player to win MVP in WNBA history. 

WNBA MVPs with most missed time

Collier still has a strong case as the best player on the league's best team, and will get first-place votes. She's second in the league in scoring, ninth in rebounding, third in steals and fifth in blocks, and has been historically efficient. However, she's fallen behind Wilson in a number of key statistical categories while playing seven fewer games. Plus, the Lynx's advantage in the standings is no longer as significant as it once was. 

3. Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury

Thomas has finished in the top-five in MVP voting in each of the last three seasons. She actually received the most first-place votes in 2023 but lost out to Breanna Stewart in a historically close race because of overall voting points. It appears Thomas will once again just fall short. 

The only thing Thomas has done "wrong" in recent years is have her best seasons at the same time as other all-time greats. Her 2025 campaign has been remarkable. She had eight triple-doubles this season alone -- no one else in league history has more than four -- and will come closer to averaging a triple-double than anyone else ever. Defensively, she's a menace, and the Mercury fall apart without her on the court. 

Thomas has an MVP résumé and in most seasons in WNBA history would have been the runaway winner. But she wasn't as good or impactful as Wilson or Collier this season, and the Mercury had a worse record than the Aces and Lynx, so she falls to third. 

4. Allisha Gray, Atlanta Dream

Heading into the season, the general expectation was that the Dream would be better after a series of fascinating offseason moves, but no one knew exactly how their first season under new coach Karl Smesko would go. Exceedingly well, as it turned out. The Dream have won a franchise-record 30 games and are guaranteed a top-three seed in the playoffs. (They will get the No. 2 seed with an Aces loss on Thursday and the No. 3 seed with an Aces win.)

Their success was largely driven by Gray, who put together the best season of her career: 18.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals while shooting 38.4% from 3-point range. She thrived in Smesko's offensive system, which emphasizes spacing and 3-point shooting, and was a consistent two-way force for an Atlanta team that dealt with a multitude of injuries. 

5. Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever

The Fever have had five players -- Chloe Bibby, Caitlin Clark, Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham and Aari McDonald -- suffer season-ending injuries, and another (DeWanna Bonner) quit on the team in the middle of the season. And yet, they set a franchise record for wins in a season with 24 and could be the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. (They'll fall to No. 7 with a Valkyries win on Thursday.)

Kelsey Mitchell was the primary reason the Fever's season did not fall apart. With Clark sidelined, she took on an even bigger perimeter scoring and playmaking burden and put together the best season of her career: 20.2 points -- good for third in the league -- and 3.4 assists on 45.6/39.4/78.4 shooting splits. When Mitchell was on the floor, the Fever had a 107.8 offensive rating, and when she sat it plummetted to 94.3.