2025 WNBA Finals: Three keys for the Mercury to bounce back from 2-0 deficit to Aces

The 2025 WNBA Finals will shift from the Mojave Desert to the Sonoran Desert for Games 3 and 4 between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury. After stealing Game 1, the Aces cruised in Game 2 to take a 2-0 lead in the first-ever best-of-seven series in WNBA history. 

The Mercury have been underdogs throughout this entire run, and fell behind in each of their first two series. A 2-0 deficit against a team with the best player in the world and plenty of championship experience is a different situation, however. Still, the Mercury are confident. 

"There's no panic, no pressure," Alyssa Thomas said Tuesday. "We love an underdog story. We love when people count us out. Of course, we put a tall task in front of us being down two [to] nothing, but there's still a lot of basketball left to play. [It's just been] two of a seven-game series. Still a lot of confidence here. We just know we have a lot of room to improve."

So, where can the Mercury improve? And how can they get back in the series? Let's take a look.  

Get back to their defensive best

The Mercury's offense has been extremely inconsistent during the playoffs, but they were able to take out the reigning champion New York Liberty and top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in succession anyway thanks to tremendous defensive effort. 

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Mercury boasted a 92.2 defensive rating that ranked first among all eight playoff teams. In the Finals, their defensive rating has jumped to 109.8

"We need to be better defensively," Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts said Tuesday. "We haven't done a good enough job getting stops."

Aside from a few stretches in Game 1, the Aces have largely gotten whatever they've wanted on the offensive end, and have been efficient all over the floor. 

Notably, the Mercury are fouling more and giving up more points in the paint. In the first two rounds, they only allowed 13.6 free throws per game and 32 points in the paint -- both the fewest of any playoff team. Through the first two games of the Finals, the Aces are averaging 16.5 free throw attempts and 37 points in the paint. 

In Game 2, in particular, the Aces got far too many easy looks at the rim. A'ja Wilson had a number of them, and Tibbetts hopes his team will be able to keep her quiet in Game 3. He noted that he wants his team to be better about showing Wilson (and Jackie Young) multiple bodies rather than trying to defend one-on-one. 

"I thought in Game 2 [Wilson] got some transition ones that we don't want to give up," Tibbetts said. "She's so good you can't give up easy ones. We did that and we'll be better in Game 3."

More paint touches for AT

Alyssa Thomas was unstoppable in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Against the Liberty and the Lynx, she averaged 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.1 assists, and was almost always the best player on the floor. 

Through the first two games of the Finals, Thomas hasn't been able to make the same level of impact. Her numbers are still impressive -- 12.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists per game -- but they're down across the board, particularly in the scoring department. She also missed two crucial free throws in Game 1 and dealt with foul trouble in Game 2. 

The Mercury need Thomas to be a force of nature in order to compete with the Aces. Tibbetts said that starts with getting Thomas more paint touches. 

"When we touch the paint, good stuff usually happens," Tibbetts said. "I give them credit, their guards have really competed on the switches. We probably haven't seen as many switches throughout the course of the year as they've done. So their reps are definitely higher. But this is all part of a series, learning what our strengths are against them, how can we attack them in certain ways, and what are the areas they've taken away from us."

As Tibbetts noted, one particular issue for Thomas and the Mercury is that their pet play -- an inverted pick-and-roll with Thomas as the ball-handler -- has not been working as well as it did in the first two rounds. The Aces' guards have been physical and aggressive, and have forced a number of turnovers. 

It will be interesting to see what sort of counters the Mercury have to get Thomas more touches near the basket where she can be a threat to score and make plays for others. While Thomas rarely ever posts up, that could be an option when the Aces are switching their guards onto her. 

Take advantage of playing at home

The Mercury lost Game 1 of their first-round series against the Liberty at home in overtime, but since then are 3-0 at the newly-named Mortgage Matchup Center. Between the regular season and playoffs, they are 18-8 at home, compared to 14-13 on the road. 

If the Mercury want to get back into this series, they'll have to utilize their home-court advantage. 

"It's really being in your own rhythm. You're not in a different city for five days in a row," Sabally said Tuesday about being back in Phoenix. "You're sleeping in your own bed, having your own food and the food you're used to. Those are things on the macro level, but really just being on [our] homecourt and feeling your fans behind you. It's just a lot more fun too, to play at home and that's what we'll lean on. We'll lean on the fans, but we'll also lean on us, the whole squad and the environment."

One particular area to watch is the Mercury's 3-point shooting. They love to fire away from downtown and have shot significantly better at home than on the road in both the regular season and playoffs. The Mercury are going to take more 3s than the Aces, and if they can shoot a high percentage have a real chance to turn the game into a math problem. 

Here's a look at their splits:

The Mercury are one of the league's original franchises and have long had a terrific home-court advantage. The Mortgage Matchup Center will be jumping on Wednesday night and could give the team the boost they need.