UFC Fight Night predictions: Odds, undercard, expert picks for Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker

A UFC lightweight title shot could hang in the balance for Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker. The UFC Fight Night headliners hope to use Saturday's fight in Doha, Qatar, as a launching pad to Ilia Topuria.

Tsarukyan (22-3) checks off what should be the last stop on his redemption arc. His reputation took a major hit after UFC 311. Tsarukyan pulled out of his lightweight title fight with Islam Makhachev, citing a back injury. If losing his title shot wasn't bad enough, UFC CEO Dana White said Tsarukyan would need to earn another crack at gold. He made reparations by serving as backup for Topuria vs. Oliveira. Tsarukyan believes the UFC will position him as Topuria's next fight once he puts away an overmatched Hooker.

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"If you compare our skills and who I fought and beat, I'm in the right spot. That's why I'm the No. 1 contender," Tsarukyan told CBS Sports. "He lost all his opportunities against good fighters. He lost to Dustin Poirier, Islam Makhachev and Michael Chandler. He had good fights, but he lost his opportunities." 

Hooker (24-12) is executing his master plan to leapfrog other contenders in the division. Hooker campaigned for the Tsarukyan fight, believing other top contenders were avoiding him. If Hooker cashes as a major underdog, he might find himself as the top contender. That's where the shortcuts end. Hooker believes Tsarukyan is the most skilled lightweight fighter, even greater than champion Topuria. 

"He had no choice but to fight me," Hooker told CBS Sports. "I knew that, looking at the division. I knew no one between him and me would take the fight. It's too risky. They have a good excuse because he pulled out of his title fight in the last five minutes with a sore back. So the champ Ilia has a good excuse not to face him." 

Saturday's co-main event also has title implications. Former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad looks to bounce back against rising contender Ian Machado Garry. A standout performance is imperative after Michael Morales and Carlos Prates notched highlight-reel knockouts at UFC 322. Muhammad and Garry have been trading barbs in the media over how their fight, a grappler vs. striker fight on the surface, will play out.

"I'm going to grab hold of him, I'm going to take him down, then I'm going to let him back up, just because I'm going to show him, 'I could take you down if I want to.' Then I'm going to outbox him because he said he could outstrike me..." Muhammad told MMA Junkie. "It's finishing him on the feet and reminding everybody who I am."

"That sounds like someone who can't hold me down... If you get me down, keep me down. Try that," Garry told CBS Sports in response, later adding, "I think he's chatting out of his backside. I don't believe it for a second. I think he's playing reverse psychology. If he were smart, he'd be saying this. However, I genuinely think he's thick enough to believe that."

Let's take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Nov. 22 | Start time: 1 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Doha, Qatar
Stream: ESPN+

Prediction

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker: Hooker winning would mark one of the best career comebacks in UFC history and thrust him into a high-profile fight with Topuria. I fear, however, it's an outcome reserved for fairytales. Tsarukyan is a nightmare for any lightweight. Tsarukyan is arguably the top lightweight wrestler after Makhachev's welterweight graduation. Hooker has great takedown defense, but Mateusz Gamrot managed to score five takedowns against him. Tsarukyan is almost as potent a takedown artist as Gamrot, with better top control. While it'd be irresponsible for Tsarukyan to kickbox with Hooker, his evolving striking and solid chin create opportunities to initiate takedowns. Hooker can drag people through hell, but Tsarukyan's well-roundedness allows him to put the fight in his wheelhouse. Pick: Tsarukyan via submission