UFC 330 goes down this Saturday from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. Two title fights top the card, with Ian Machado Garry challenging for Islam Makhachev's welterweight title and Mackenzie Dern defending the women's strawweight championship against Gillian Robertson.
Makhachev, the pupil of former lightweight champion and UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, has built one of the best resumes of the modern era. A win on Saturday not only marks the first defense of his second divisional title, but it would break the record for most consecutive UFC victories held by Anderson Silva at 16. The native of Dagestan has been a wrecking ball to the elite of the sport, taking out Alexander Volkanovski twice as well as Charles Oliveira. He earned the welterweight crown with a dominant showing against Jack Della Maddalena.
Garry burst onto the UFC scene in November 2021, winning eight consecutive fights to run his career record to 15-0. Garry then suffered the first loss of his professional career when he dropped a December 2024 decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov. Garry has since rebounded with a pair of wins to receive a shot at the belt.
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In the women's strawweight title fight, Dern looks to silence some doubters about her ability. After a rough stretch from 2021 to 2024 that saw Dern post a 2-4 mark, the BJJ specialist has strung together three straight wins, including a strong showing against Virna Jandiroba last October to claim the title. At the same time, Robertson may have put together a more impressive run with a 7-2 run dating back to 2022. Robertson is coming off a huge win over Amanda Lemos in March to earn this title opportunity.
The undercard sees veteran Jalin Turner look to build off a first-round TKO last time out when he takes on rising prospect Kaue Fernandes at lightweight. Plus, middleweights collide when Mansur Abdul-Malik takes on Dustin Stoltzfus. And fireworks are expected in the main card opener when Esteban Ribovics battles veteran Edson Barboza.
With so much intriguing action -- and two title fights -- set for UFC 330, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in the event, including at sportsbooks. With that in mind, we've once again looked at all the event's main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 329, we are sitting just below .500 at 18-19 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend with the goal of getting back in the black, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics
Over 1.5 rounds (-120)
I don't fully understand how these odds are laid out. The odds suggest a Ribovics knockout is the most likely way for the fight to finish at -185. Ribovics has one stoppage victory in seven UFC fights. While that was a spectacular head kick knockout of Terrance McKinney, that's not a record where I want to take -185 odds on a knockout win. Barboza has been knocked out in his career, but he's a fairly tough fighter and not someone I believe has a weak chin. It feels as though taking the fight to go past the midway point is a solid play given the fighters involved and Ribovics as a heavy -650 favorite.
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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus moneyline (+490)
In a way, this is a principal play. Abdul-Malik has looked very vulnerable in his UFC career, so seeing him listed at -675 is jarring. Yes, Stoltzfus is 3-7 in the UFC, and no, that is not a good record, but he's a tough, wild fighter who gave Kelvin Gastelum a very tough fight last September. Abdul-Malik has been dropped several times in his UFC career. He was bullied and stopped by Yousri Belgaroui in his most recent outing. Abdul-Malik likely wins the fight, to be clear, but Stoltzfus is a live dog with the kind of style that can catch Abdul-Malik in exchanges. The odds are simply too wide, and it makes a play on the big underdog a good one.
Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes
Kaue Fernandes moneyline (+130)
Since dropping a split decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut, Fernandes has gone on a 3-0 run. The most recent of those wins saw Fernandes blast Harry Hardwick with leg kicks for the stoppage. Fernandes is a good striker with fantastic leg kicks and solid defensive skills. Turner is long, rangy and dangerous, but he isn't always defensively responsible. In a fight I expect to be primarily fought on the feet, that gives Fernandes a strong advantage, as well as opportunities to land those blistering leg kicks. As Fernandes breaks down Turner's legs, the head will open up and allow for more opportunities to mix up his strikes. Take the underdog odds in this one.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson
Over 3.5 rounds (-220)
In nine fights over the past five years, Dern has one win by stoppage. Robertson has more finishes, but all in fights that were not at the level of what she'll be facing in Dern. Part of what has led to so few stoppages for Dern has been her leaning on striking rather than grappling, an odd choice for one of the most decorated female jiu-jitsu players in the world. Dern has never scored a TKO or KO victory in her career and this feels like a fight that will likely be contested mainly on the feet. Robertson's grappling is solid enough that she isn't immediately in danger if the fight does hit the floor. This feels like a fight that hits the final bell, but rather than taking the fight going the distance (-150), we'll play the safer over line on this one.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry +9.5 (-120)
As a reminder, a point spread in MMA betting means that if a fight goes to decision, you total the scorecards for each fighter and then apply the spread. So, if Makhachev wins 48-47 across the board, the score would be 144-141. Add the +9.5 for Garry and you would have a winning bet. A stoppage win or loss would also count, so you're betting on Garry to lose by less than 9.5 on the combined scorecards, win on the cards or win by knockout, submission or disqualification.
This is just Makhachev's second fight at welterweight and Garry is a big, long 170-pound fighter who uses his reach very well. Makhachev has decent striking, but he's likely heading into this fight with a grappling-first mindset. To get inside, Makhachev is going to have to navigate distance and then not only take Garry down, but keep him there. I believe Makhachev will be able to do that enough to get the win, but Garry can likely do well enough to steal at least one round. If Garry can win just one round and not get finished, assuming no 10-8 rounds for Makhachev, the final scores would be 147-138. Adding the +9.5 spread means a Garry bet would cash with his total at 147.5. That seems like a safe bet to place on a talented, natural welterweight like Garry.
Who wins Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 2018, and find out.
