UFC 322 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev, every bout in NYC

Saturday is a chance for Islam Makhachev and Zhang Weili to make history as both fighters have vacated championships to move up a weight division and challenge for a second title in the featured fights of UFC 322.

In the main event, Makhachev will battle welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena. Makhachev won the lightweight championship in 2022 and successfully defended the title four times before vacating to move to welterweight. Dealla Maddalena will be making his first defense of the title he won in May with a decision win over Belal Muhammad.

Be sure to keep up with all the action on Saturday with our live coverage of UFC 322, including round-by-round scoring and updated fight results throughout the night!

Meanwhile, Zhang and flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko have had similar career runs in UFC. Both are among the most decorated champions in the strawweight and flyweight division's history. They have each made numerous title defenses while coming up on the wrong end of a pair of fights with their toughest rivals (Rose Namajunas for Zhang and Amanda Nunes for Shevchenko). Saturday could go a long way in polishing off an already Hall of Fame worthy resume for either woman.

UFC 322: Why Islam Makhachev's early UFC loss set him on the path to become a potential two-division champ

Brian Campbell

With so much happening on Saturday night, let's look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.

UFC 322 fight card, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Islam Makhachev -285 vs. Jack Della Maddalena (c) +230, welterweight title
  
• Valentina Shevchenko -135 (c) vs. Zhang Weili +115, women's flyweight title
• Sean Brady -130 vs. Michael Morales +110, welterweights
• Carlos Prates -175 vs. Leon Edwards +145, welterweights
• Benoit Saint Denis -180 vs. Beneil Dariush +150, lightweights
• Bo Nickal -205 vs. Rodolfo Vieira +170, middleweights
• Gregory Rodrigues -185 vs. Roman Kopylov +154, middleweights
• Erin Blanchfield -258 vs. Tracy Cortes +210, women's flyweights
• Malcolm Wellmaker -590 vs. Ethyn Ewing +440, featherweights
• Kyle Daukaus -425 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +330, middleweights
• Pat Sabatini -130 vs. Chepe Mariscal +110, featherweights
• Fatima Kline -520 vs. Angela Hill +390, women's strawweights
• Baisangur Susurkaev -1050 vs. Eric McConico +675, middleweights
• Matheus Camilo -162 vs. Viacheslav Borshchev, lightweights

UFC 322 predictions, picks

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev predictions

Campbell: Della Maddalena has the size, power and toughness not to be taken lightly in Makhachev's pursuit of history as a potential two-division champion. JDM also showed enough improvements in his takedown defense against Belal Muhammad that it might not be as easy as some might think for Makhachev to drown him in the grappling department. Still, it's hard to look past just how evenly well-rounded Makhachev's game has truly become and how much of a finishing threat (with 18 stoppages in 27 pro wins) he truly is, whether on the feet or on the ground. Della Maddalena will definitely make him earn it, but this is still Makhachev's fight to lose. And the 10-month layoff that the former lightweight champion enters with should help him feel comfortable at the new weight class. At the end of the day, Makhachev's technical advantages should prove to be the difference.  

Brookhouse: I'm often guilty of overthinking simple fights, and maybe that's what I'm doing here. Something about Della Maddalena's skillset feels like it's close to what a fighter needs to deal with Makhachev's game. On the feet, Makhachev is solid, but Della Maddalena will have the edge. Makhachev will get takedowns in the fight, but Della Maddalena has good scrambling skills, and training with Craig Jones is sure to have taught the champion a few tricks. Either way, I believe this will be a difficult fight for Makhachev as he meets a tricky fighter in a new weight class.

Mahjouri: Della Maddalena is a live dog, don't let Makhachev's well-deserved reputation fool you. Della Maddalena is an elite boxer with rapidly evolving grappling defense. The champ stuffed most of Belal Muhammad's takedowns and, more importantly, wasn't held down for long stretches. Pair that with Makhaev's relative struggles striking with Dustin Poirier, and you can see a case for JDM. With all that said, I'm still siding with Makhachev. The former lightweight champ is a better grappler than Muhammad. Makhachev lands more takedowns more accurately, controls better, and finishes more. Size shouldn't be a major factor either. Della Maddalena, by his own admission, isn't a large welterweight. That'll benefit Makhachev, whose physicality should translate well enough at welterweight. Expect to see Makhachev build his Hall of Fame legacy with a finish.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili predictions

Campbell: There's a reason why this fight has been a virtual pick 'em from a betting standpoint throughout the build to it. A pair of future Hall of Famers and decorated champions with completely evolved skill sets and nary a hole in their respective games to speak about. Both are also as technical as they are tenacious. But something will inevitably have to give in a matchup this close on paper and the biggest things separating the two fighters seems to favor Shevchenko entirely. The former bantamweight contender is slightly bigger, has more big-fight experience and is a more refined striker, particularly as a counter puncher. If Shevchenko's game is slipping at age 37, her back-to-back recent decision wins over former champion Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot over the past 14 months haven't shown it. While Zhang is a bit more explosive and could have an edge from the standpoint of five-round cardio should this fight be contested at a high pace, Shevchenko has too much craft not to find a way to hold her off in a technical thriller. 

Brookhouse: This fight should be great, but Shevchenko has shown the ability to neutralize explosive fighters like Weili. Shevchenko is a patient fighter who can mix tactical striking with grinding clinches and takedowns. Weili is a dynamic fighter, but one who operates best when she's free to lead the action. If Shevchenko can routinely dictate the terms of the fight, it's going to be a very long night for Weili. Weili is also coming up a division and now dealing with a stronger fighter with heaps of championship experience. Really, it comes down to the less exciting the fight is, the better things are going for Shevchenko.

Mahjouri: Zhang has rounded out her game excellently, but you won't find a better all-around fighter than Shevchenko. The women's flyweight champion can strike and grapple with fantastic technique and defensive responsibility. Zhang's KO power will probably carry up in weight, but against Shevchenko, who hasn't been KOed in 18 UFC fights, it's hard to see the former strawweight queen getting a finish. Shevchenko is a hard fighter to beat on the scorecards. The judges love her, and they'll greet Shevchenko again at the finish line.

Wise: While Shevchenko is deserving of her flowers as one of the pioneers of women in UFC, it seems a bit odd for a fight like this to be so close on paper for a champion of her ilk. Shevchenko has been known to bully opponents around at this weight with the relative skill level low at 125 pounds outside of her lone defeat to Alexa Grasso. Zhang, meanwhile, seems to present the most well rounded skill set she has faced since Amanda Nunes in 2017 at bantamweight. The size difference also seems negligible here in going from 115 to 125 pounds and the faceoffs this week seem to indicate just that. Both fighters could cancel out the others' strengths and turn this into an ugly brawl. But if that's the case, give me the fighter who we've seen survive that kind of battle with Joanna Jedrzcyzk before. 

Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales predictions

Campbell: Consider this one heck of a style contrast in a matchup still offering strength versus strength from the standpoint of Brady's hard-nosed wrestling against the explosive striking of the 18-0 Morales. Despite the fact that Morales has a solid wrestling base, Brady's appears to be simply at a different level, which puts the onus upon the Philadelphia fighter to crowd Morales as much as possible and pull on his gas tank consistently. Brady has a strong track record of doing exactly that throughout his three-fight win streak against the likes of Kelvin Gastelum, Gilbert Burns and former champion Leon Edwards. While Morales will be dangerous for every second that the fight remains on the feet, Brady's experience edge should shine through in this one provided he can control the terms and not get caught from distance against his knockout hungry foe. 

Brookhouse: From our UFC 322 best bets: "This fight may come down to wrestling. Brady averages more than 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes while Morales defends takedowns at a success rate of 89%. Of course, Morales hasn't faced a murderer's row of great wrestlers and Brady presents a host of new tests for the Ecuadorian. Brady is more battle-tested against better opposition, and -135 feels like a good price on the higher-ranked, more proven fighter."

Mahjouri: Brady vs. Morales is one of the more compelling fights on the card. Brady is a powerhouse with phenomenal grappling. Morales is a slick knockout artist. What makes the fight curious are their defensive lapses. Brady is a responsible defensive striker, but it's hard to shake how Muhammad -- who has two knockouts in 20 UFC fights -- finished Brady on the feet. Morales' takedown defense isn't foolproof, but no one has managed to keep him down. A grappler vs. striker fight that could go either way, I'll lean with Brady's experience over Morales, the latter of whom has yet to be tested by an elite prime welterweight. 

Who wins UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.