The United States Men's National Team has achieved a great deal over the last two World Cup cycles, getting back to the 2022 World Cup after missing out in 2018. The Americans became a force in CONCACAF and started to turn the tide against Mexico in the quest for North American soccer supremacy. However, Team USA could only achieve so much under former manager Gregg Berhalter despite having a group of talented young players who were flourishing in top domestic leagues around the world. Berhalter failing to make the knockout round of the 2024 Copa America sealed his fate.
Mauricio Pochettino stepped in with the goal of making this team a contender for the 2026 World Cup, which takes on added significance for the Americans as they are co-hosts. Even though they aren't expected to make it to the final, MetLife Stadium serving as the venue instead of Mexico City's Estadio Azteca shows how valuable the U.S. market is to FIFA. Can Pochettino's tactics work wonders in a home World Cup? Does the experience of consistently facing top competition domestically result in exponential collective growth among the players? Or will this be yet another early exit with shades of the Berhalter era?
I'll go over the latest USMNT odds for the 2026 World Cup, sort through the roster, highlight key players and give my predictions for how the Red, White and Blue will fare this summer.
World Cup 2026 futures odds for USMNT (via FanDuel)
- To win the World Cup: +5500
- To reach the World Cup final: +2000
- To reach the semifinal: +800
- To reach the quarterfinal: +270
- To reach the Round of 16: -130
- To win Group D: +130
The Americans are expected to receive stiff competition from Turkey (+175) in Group D but are still favored to finish at the top of the standings. Outside of a quarterfinal appearance in 2002, Team USA has routinely been a Round of 16 team. The expanded field means a Round of 32 knockout game would be on deck, so the USMNT would need to win that to pay off on a Round of 16 finish bet. One thing is certain -- the team will have a much different feel to it than previous iterations thanks to the managerial change.
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Pochettino's upheaval
Even though this is a home World Cup, it's hard to place high expectations on Pochettino in his first major tournament campaign. He did reach the Gold Cup final in 2025, which was basically a given. The most important shift has been his formation change and mandate to play attacking soccer, something the Americans rarely did with consistency under Berhalter. Those teams used to try to grind out games and focus on establishing possession dominance. Pochettino's 4-2-3-1 look means more creativity in the final third, more space for skill players to work their magic and in general, more attacking play. There have been some changes in the squad as well. Pochettino has largely favored speed, although injuries have forced him to make some concessions on this front in certain spots.
This approach has its drawbacks, and USMNT displayed plenty of that in its run-up to the World Cup but there are some positives for fans to lean on. And it starts with two midfielders who enter this competition as veterans in their prime.
The midfield battleground
I'm shocked Tyler Adams isn't the captain for this team after he had that honor in 2022. His presence as one of the two center midfielders in Pochettino's setup is hard to miss, and while he won't usually be one to press forward, his ability to hold down the midfield and win 50/50 balls is second to none. There will be times when the opponent has more talent, but Adams has never been short on willpower. He was a key starter in Bournemouth's 2025-26 campaign that resulted in a sixth-place finish and a Europa League appearance.
For a team that is being asked to attack more, having Adams as a bit of a safety net in the midfield is crucial. Pochettino has Tim Ream as one center back but he's played both Mark McKenzie and Miles Robinson as the other in the two friendlies just before the World Cup. That probably means he hasn't settled on a pairing, which is not a great sign. Adams being able to prevent a lot of opponents from consistently testing USMNT's back line will determine how far this team goes.
Weston McKennie has been a force at Juventus, initially going to the club on loan before joining permanently. He's coming into this tournament off a career campaign in terms of goals scored, and although his role in the international team might not be clearly defined, that's partially by design. McKennie's ability to join the attack, win possession in midfield, track back to help defensively and generally chip in across the pitch allows him to play in a "rover" role for Pochettino.
This has been a bit of a new trend in soccer, with Arsenal's Martin Odegaard coming to mind as an example of a highly successful rover player. McKennie is essentially given a free hand to read the situation on the pitch and react, which plays into his athleticism. This is a bit of a double-edged sword, but if done right, it can open up more attacking angles for Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun and Sergiño Dest. The latter moving into an attacking winger role has been one of the major changes under Pochettino.
McKennie can occasionally get into trouble when he gets caught in no-man's land, especially against opponents with clinical passers. Pairing Adams with him mitigates this slightly, but it still means McKennie will have to track back consistently when the ball isn't in the attacking third. If he can make successful reads more often than not, McKennie can be the breakout player for the Americans at this tournament. He's +1800 to lead the team in goals, with Pulisic topping the odds table at +300 and Balogun priced at +380. I wouldn't necessarily rush to back McKennie in this particular market, but his ability to be opportunistic will greatly impact USA's fortunes.
A suspect back line
I did say there were drawbacks to the way Pochettino has this team set up, and they've been impossible to ignore. Chris Richards' injury hurts substantially, as he would've been a clear first choice as a center back. His status for the World Cup is unknown, though he is in the 26-man squad. Ream provides some stability but is probably a touch below what you'd consider to be a bona fide starter. Alex Freeman and Antonee Robinson are awesome wingbacks, but they can be had on the counter-attack, especially if they join in on pushes in the final third.
Team USA has allowed 11 goals in its four matches entering to the World Cup, highlighted by Belgium registering a five-goal performance. The quality of opposition in these four games is worth pointing out (Belgium, Portugal, Senegal, Germany) but that's what is looming in the knockout round. Even with players like Adams, McKennie and Dest being alert defensively, the Americans have been conceding at a regular pace. A subpar showing from the midfield, particularly Adams, would basically doom the USA back line.
How the tournament path shapes up
USA are in a group with Paraguay, Australia and Turkey. Paraguay have gone 4-2-4 in their last 10 international matches, with their best result being a 2-1 win over Mexico. Australia are 5-4-1 in their last 10, and they did lose to the Americans in that span. However, they did register a 1-1 draw with a solid Swiss outfit just before the World Cup.
Turkey offer the stiffest competition for the USMNT and have gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 matches. They recovered from a 6-0 loss to Spain with a 2-2 draw against the defending European champions and have experience across the pitch. The good news for Team USA is they don't play Turkey until the final group game, so they may have already qualified for the Round of 32 before that match kicks off. There's minimal traveling for the teams in Group D but the Americans will have already played a match at SoFi Stadium prior to playing Turkey at the venue in the final group stage contest.
Winning Group D would mean a matchup against a third-place team from the group stage in the Round of 32. A win in that match would likely mean a rematch with Belgium in the Round of 16. Finishing as the runner-up in Group D doesn't offer much either. A Round of 32 match would likely come against Egypt or Iran (I'm not sure even FIFA would be thrilled with this outcome) and a win there would mean a Round of 16 game likely featuring Argentina as the opponent. That's the problem for this particular American team; at some point, there's just going to be a supremely talented soccer heavyweight standing on the other side.
USMNT best bets for World Cup 2026
Even though Turkey have been in good form and are just a touch behind the Americans in the group futures market, I'm willing to back USMNT to win Group D. The Americans are 5-4-1 in their last 10 matches and they put away a 10-man Uruguay team 5-1 like any quality side would've done. Their results against top contenders have been mixed, as noted above, but the benefit of that is being able to see how you measure up and elevating your standards. I don't see Team USA having much trouble with Paraguay or Australia, which would be enough to already secure qualification prior to the match with Turkey. Behind the home crowd, I think USA can get the edge there and win the group.
Fans can feel good backing USA in the Round of 32 regardless of how the group stage plays out. Barring some truly unexpected results, a third-place team from any group isn't going to offer much. As contentious as a potential game against Iran would be, the Americans are simply more talented. The same goes for Egypt. Taking the USMNT to make the Round of 16 at -130 is comfortable.
Looking past that stage might be wishful thinking. As I said earlier, expecting Pochettino to do more than make the Round of 16 in his first major tournament with this team is setting yourself up for a letdown. We've already seen Belgium trounce the USA this year, and Argentina's current international run is well documented. As much as I'd like to see USA make the quarterfinal, the Round of 16 is where the 2026 run likely ends.
