The 2026 World Cup is nearing its conclusion as the semifinals take place on Tuesday, July 14 and Wednesday, July 15 before the final on Sunday, July 19. France are the favorites to win the title, while Spain, England and defending champions Argentina are hoping to prevent Les Bleus from their third title in program history. France and Spain will meet in Tuesday's semifinal, while England face Argentina in Wednesday's clash.
Kylian Mbappe, who scored four goals in his first World Cup campaign in 2018 before capturing the Golden Boot with eight goals in 2022, is the favorite to win the award again in 2026. He has eight goals ahead of the semifinal and also has three assists, which gives him the current tiebreaker edge over Argentina star Lionel Messi. Messi also has eight goals entering the semifinal round. We'll take a look at the latest Golden Boot odds ahead of the last matches of the World Cup and make predictions for who will ultimately take home the honor.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds (via FanDuel)
- Kylian Mbappe (-140)
- Lionel Messi (+145)
- Harry Kane (+1200)
- Jude Bellingham (+2500)
- Ousmane Dembele (+10000)
- Mikel Oyarzabal (+12500)
There's something about the World Cup which seems to bring out the best in Mbappe, who is averaging a goal per match in the competition across his three campaigns. He had a somewhat muted campaign with Real Madrid this past season but did still put in 25 goals, though he's found a new level at the World Cup. The expectation is France will defeat Spain and play in the final, which gives Mbappe two more matches to rack up the goals. He tallied three times in the 2022 World Cup final so it seems like his stature only grows as the stakes get bigger.
Dembele has been excellent with five goals in the campaign but he's highly unlikely to catch his teammate here. Spain's Oyarzabal has four goals, and his best hope would be to score multiple times in the semifinal and then again in the final to overtake the others on the odds board.
The semifinal between England and Argentina is much more compelling for this race. Messi has scored eight of Argentina's 16 goals in the tournament, and he was able to net one in the final group stage match despite coming on late as a substitute. Argentina's reliance on Messi has given them problems in the knockout stage but destiny appears to be backing La Albiceleste. England have probably gone through the toughest path to get here, taking down Mexico at Estadio Azteca and coming back to defeat Norway. Kane has been phenomenal with six goals but Bellingham has arguably been the more clutch player, scoring twice against both Mexico and Norway.
If you're looking to make a wager on Messi, Kane or Bellingham, you're basically making a prediction on the outcome of this semifinal. I'd lean towards taking Bellingham over Kane if you think England are going to advance as the Real Madrid midfielder has been on a tear. Even though England's system funnels plenty of action through Kane, Bellingham's been the one to score the goals of late. The payout for him is more than double what it would be for Kane, and both are tied with six goals.
If you think Argentina will advance, Messi is the clear pick. He's only one assist behind Mbappe in the tiebreaker situation and France have more proven scoring threats in this tournament outside of the star striker. If Dembele, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola can take a goal or two away from Mbappe while Messi nets one in a semifinal win, the Argentine would be ahead entering a potential final.
