Big day today. Big day. The US men's national team return to World Cup knockout stage action and to the great disappointment of much of the rest of the world, a path seems to be opening up for Mauricio Pochettino's men to make quite a deep run. Can Bosnia & Herzegovina stop them? And can you sense that note of pleading in my voice? You must understand, I've been stuck with these USMNT boosters for years. It's more than I can take!
Anyway, before a ball is kicked the U.S.A. will know what might lie ahead of them as Belgium take on Senegal in Seattle, the winner bound to face the winner of the aforementioned tie in Seattle on July 6. Even before that, there's an intriguing game to begin the day as England take on DR Congo, a test for Thomas Tuchel that we'll circle back to once we've dealt with the USMNT of it all.
Luck of the draw continues to favor USMNT
Now, none of what follows is to downplay what Pochettino's side achieved, particularly in an opening win against Paraguay that is looking all the more impressive in light of events in Boston a few days ago. Then again, perhaps Germany would have had an easier time of it if they'd manufactured an early own goal like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie did. Since that moment, the US path has been a serene one: able to land on the right game to give Pulisic a breather, facing the most talented team in their group when they were locked into top spot, landing by far the lowest ranked team Europe has to offer in the round of 32.
Some of this is by design and rightly so. World Cups are much more memorable experiences when the host nation gets behind its team; when you're picking up the check for this event, it is only fair that you get one of the third-placed teams in the first knockout round. It's just the U.S.' luck that they got it from Group B and a Bosnia side whose weapons with which to test their hosts look limited. The exciting young winger Esmir Bajraktarevic and Kerim Alajbegovic will fancy their chances of getting out in transition behind Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest. The tallest team in the World Cup could also be a menace from set pieces, Bosnia are one of six teams with a tournament-leading three goals from dead balls to their names.
Bosnia & Herzegovina are not, however, an opponent to be feared. If you want a sense of their level, just look at how they wheezed past Qatar, one of the worst teams this tournament has delivered in recent memory. They struggle to create chances, they are no more effective with the ball than without it, and many of their best players are either too young or too old (Edin Dzeko, Sead Kolasinac) to perform to their peak level. Should an American (i.e. not me) be saying all of this on the eve of a one-off elimination game? No. Will I be using this to diminish your nostalgia for the summer of 2026 in years to come? Absolutely.
Because this really is shaping up to be a memorable summer for the U.S. If the breaks go their way again today then Pochettino could land with about as favorable a round of 16 opponent as he could wish for too. Belgium are just the team you want if your realistic mission is less to win the World Cup, more to inspire the next generation. They have in recent memory been one of the biggest and best opponents the game has to offer and even now are fielding names: Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois. It wouldn't matter in the retelling of the last 16 tie that the first two of those look to be severely diminished figures, nor that Belgium's weak defense looks like prey for the Pochettino press. This could still be the downing of a football power that was the dream of USMNT supporters.
The Belgians, of course, still have to get past Senegal and that threatens to be an extremely challenging task for Rudi Garcia's side. Were the USMNT to draw the deposed African champions, then that would be a much greater challenge, the sort where they might just profile as slight underdogs. Senegal could match their athleticism in midfield, have stronger options off the bench and have the better forward line in Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaila Sarr.
Does this all feel like getting carried away? Perhaps it is, plotting out the US route to the quarterfinal (and what might happen there if Portugal do them a favor!) when they haven't even won a knockout game. And yet, this is the World Cup, the brackets have only just been set. If you can't get a bit carried away now, when can you?
When will Tuchel unleash his low-block buster?
It cannot have come as a surprise to Thomas Tuchel that England faced some gnarly low blocks against Ghana and Panama in the group stage. He will surely have twigged that this new format puts a huge premium on a team getting out from their game against the likely leaders with a point, their goal difference intact. Plus, y'know, it was Carlos Queiroz in the Ghana dugout. Give that man Brazil 1982 and he'd be lining up in two banks of five, a cigarette paper between the two of them.
And we can be sure that Tuchel -- always thinking "three steps ahead" as his former charge Michael Stroll told CBS Sports this week -- was ready for the challenges that might come when his team try to pry open a packed defense. That, after all, is why he brought a player with "very special skills that could help us," Ivan Toney. The Al-Ahli striker, formerly of Brentford, is the archetypal bunker buster.
During his three seasons in the Premier League he won 51% of aerial duels, a top 10 rank among forwards in the division that says nothing for the times when defenders concluded that there was no sense in getting near the big man and finding themselves bullied off the ball. Arguably the best center back in the game, Arsenal and France's William Saliba, has found himself monstered by a guy who gives up six inches to him. Tuchel has spoken about how Toney can "take attention off other strikers". He seems the perfect player to turn to when the steady build-up has run aground against Ghana and you just need to bypass the first defensive line, get it in the mixer and see where it drops. And yet he has not seen the field yet at the tournament.
England might need his profile again. Of teams still in the World Cup, DR Congo rank third from last in terms of possession, second for possession won in the attacking third and fourth in terms of the average starting point of their possessions. Games against Portugal and Colombia have forced Sebastien Desabre's side to drop deep and give up crosses, they allowed 23 of them in their opening 1-1 draw with Cristiano Ronaldo et al, so they can block more direct routes to goal. This will be, as Tuchel put it "a copy of Ghana, a copy of Panama, a proud team, a defensive team, a committed team to defending, a quick team, happy to counterattack."
Enter Toney, maybe? Tuchel is the sort of manager who you could believe would have held back some of his options, all the better then to sew some confusion in opposition ranks. Toney, at least, seems to believe his moment is coming, as he shared the story of one of his children, out in the U.S.A. to see their dad in action, still waiting for that moment to arrive. "My son is saying, 'why have I traveled all this way and you're not playing?'" he said. "It's hard to respond to that. It's like 'Daddy is waiting …'" For today? We shall soon find out.
