With most of the World Cup's favorites yet to get their tournament underway -- arguably all of them given the hash Brazil made of their opener -- Sunday offered an intriguing opportunity to assess the teams below the teams. When the 2026 tournament is nothing more than a folk memory it wouldn't serve as much of a surprise if Germany or the Netherlands had their name on the trophy. Heading into this tournament, though, both profiled as relative long shots.
Just getting out of the group would be a success for a Germany team whose last knockout game was the 2014 final that they won. The Dutch have gone deeper in more tournaments since but have not quite reestablished the place in the upper firmament of European nations that seemed to slip away from them after their failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
Both teams sat somewhere between seventh and 10th on a ranking of potential favorites; has that changed off the back of their openers? Let's unpack their games:
Germany just about impress
The scoreline had a gilded edge to it, but Germany's 7-1 win over Curacao did not have the air of a title contender to it. If there is a way to underwhelm while running up the goals then this was it, a team that clearly has the talent to brush aside an opponent ranked 82nd in the world, 73 spots below them, but who has an air of the slapdash to them that has still not quite cleared.
When Germany were good they were electric. Felix Nmecha bent in a wonderful opener in the sixth minute, Jamal Musiala's low drive for the fourth was the sort that much better goalkeepers than Eloy Room would have been undone by. The set pieces swung into the six-yard box were a constant threat, resulting in a fine header from Nico Schlotterbeck. It was not just the goals either. Jonathan Tah's ball through the lines teed up Leroy Sane for a wonderful chance with which he should have done better. Kai Havertz, who scored a penalty, linked excellently with those behind him. Nmecha always seemed in control.
There was a fair bit to like from this team, who proved at Euro 2024 that they can give it a go against the true top-tier contenders. Perhaps this still fairly young team, Manuel Neuer notwithstanding, can go closer. The ceiling of Julian Nagelsmann's side was never going to emerge against an opponent that they were always expected to beat and beat well.
What Curacao could establish was where Germany's floor lies. After all Dick Advocaat's side are not the archetypal butchers, bakers and candle stick makers that so many heavy underdogs are viewed as in the international game. A concerted effort to naturalise the diaspora, much of it to be found in the Netherlands, means Curacao's is a squad with plenty of representatives from the Dutch Eredivisie and the English Football League. In competitive terms this is perhaps less Germany vs. San Marino, more MLS vs. USL or Premier League vs. upper-tier League One in a domestic cup.
This was a game that reaffirmed the big picture. Germany are really good, much better than a team who had never played a World Cup game before today. The xG, the possession, the scoreline: they all tell us something we already knew. And that scoreline is so good our xG chart can't fit all their goals in.
However what we're looking at is the moments that might be more applicable against the contenders that any German side should measure itself again. That means a laser focus on the faintly slapdash quality that has reared its head with Nagelsmann's team before. It's the lack of intensity that Nathaniel Brown showed when Curacao launched one across the field to Sherel Floranus. Schlotterbeck found himself isolated two vs. one, but too few of his teammates really hurried back before Livano Comenencia had bent in an equaliser that will live on and on in Curacaon history. For a time they had the Germans rocked -- perhaps this game would have been slightly different in a World Cup without hydration/ad breaks -- and even when the game was long since lost they were poking at gaps behind the German fullbacks. They only emerged in fleeting moments, but there were vulnerabilities here that superior opposition will fancy themselves to continually expose.
It is the fact that we expected those issues to emerge in the competition that at least partially colors what was ultimately a good win where Germany played really good football. That was never in doubt. What was was whether this remained the sort of team that could drop to the level that has seen them beaten by Slovakia, Poland, Austria, Turkey and Colombia in recent memory. No matter how emphatic the scoreline was, those worries have not been dispelled. Perhaps there was nothing they could have done to do that.
Dutch let their advantages slip away
There was no such favorable assignment for the Dutch. Their game against Japan in Dallas always had the feel of one of the highlights of the group stage and that proved to have been the case by the end, four second-half goals split evenly after Daichi Kamada redirected Koki Ogawa's last-minute header past Bart Verbruggen. If Germany's game showed us little we didn't know, the Netherlands at least offered a tempting vision of the unknown, particularly in attack.
There they lined up with Cryscencio Summerville, the West Ham winger whose senior debut for the national team had come only 11 days earlier. His brilliant goal gave Ronald Koeman's side a second lead that they failed to hold onto but if that was the standout moment, then the West Ham man's aggression at pushing the ball towards the penalty area was no less significant.
While Summerville flitted dangerously around the right flank, Donyell Malen did what Donyell Malen does, getting a couple of decent-ish shots in the penalty area. Couple that with Cody Gakpo, who can drive the ball up the left and take a pot shot or two and you have an attack that looks at least a smidge better than had been expected before the tournament. No one was expecting total football for the 21st century out of the Netherlands but in theory some above-average play from the front three could take this team a long way, particularly when Ryan Gravenberch looks so elegant in possession.
The talent should be there at the back end of the pitch to hold onto leads twice won for them in the second half. A sloppy error by Micky van de Ven didn't help, playing Daizen Maeda onside when he may have impeded Verbruggen's view of Keito Nakamura's first equaliser. Nor, however, did Koeman's changes. The Dutch XI looks strong but if they are to push further than expected in this tournament they need to be able to excel for 90 minutes. Instead, their adjustments steadily lowered the level of their side in midfield in particular, Quentin Timber and Teun Koopmeiners barely getting on the ball as Tijani Reijnders and Gravenberch had.
As Japan upped the intensity following Summerville's goal, there was the opportunity for the Netherlands to go long, to play off a focal man with fresh and pacy legs. Instead, Brian Brobbey only got the last five minutes, Memphis Depay offering little in 20 to suggest he might add to his record 55-goal tally with the Oranje. Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu got ahold of the game by switching to a front two and upping the intensity. Junya Ito's introduction brought game-stretching threat down the right while even the defenders who came off the bench had licence to push up.
In the 64 minutes up to Summerville's goal, the Netherlands had 162 attacking third touches to Japan's 72. In the ascendancy for the second time, they allowed Japan 62 touches in their third, taking 31 in their opponents. It wasn't even as if the team in the lead were battening down the hatches, for reasons of personnel and tired legs they weren't able to do what they had been doing for much of the game before.
Koeman tried to do the same things in different circumstances with inferior parts. No wonder his side couldn't hold their lead. In a tournament that asks so much of already run-down squads, it is hard to see the Netherlands going beyond expectations if they aren't able to perform for the full 90.
