2026 World Cup Power Rankings: USMNT outside of top 20 and behind Mexico; Spain, Argentina the favorites

With the Gold Cup done and dusted, the 2024-25 international cycle is done and dusted. A year from now we will be in the teeth of the 2026 World Cup knockout stages, so what better time to assess who figures to be in the mix in 365 days time?

Ten teams have already rubber stamped their place in the competition alongside hosts USA, Canada and Mexico. Six of them come from Asia: familiar faces Japan, South Korea, Iran and Australia joined by debutants Jordan and Uzbekistan. Further south, New Zealand have made their way through Oceania qualifying and will feature in their first World Cup in 16 years. Meanwhile, three of our 

We'll start with our top 32. I think the herculean task of the whole 48 can wait till we actually have a full field to work with, right?

1. Spain

They might have been stunned by their neighbors in the Nations League final, but even in that competition, where they romped to a 5-0 lead over France, the European champions offered a compelling case for why they will lift the world's greatest prize too. In the heat of a North American summer, control will be vital. In Pedri, Rodri and/or Martin Zubimendi, Spain will have that in abundance. Add in the cutting edge of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, and this is the team to beat.

2. Argentina

Really, this is a 1A and 1B situation. For the most part, the holders have breezed through qualification, easing their reliance on Lionel Messi in terms of minutes even as the great man continues to deliver clutch goals. Their 4-1 win over Brazil in March was an ominous statement of how good they can be without the greatest ever to do it, while their Copa America win spoke to a team who can go on a run of clean sheets in big tournaments.

3. France

Just when you thought France's attack couldn't get any more terrifying, Ousmane Dembele establishes himself as a legitimate Ballon d'Or candidate. Les Bleus could be racked by injuries right across the side over the next year, and they'd still be able to field a contender.The question is whether Didier Deschamps will deploy them to their best on his last dance.

4. Brazil

Brazil have everything they need: in almost every position across the pitch, they are overloaded with elite talent. It is just that for quite a while now, it has looked like less than the sum of its parts, an orchestra in pursuit of any conductor to compare to the greatest of their past (or even Neymar). Perhaps Carlo Ancelotti, the ultimate superstar facilitator, can fix things. He doesn't have long to make an impact.

5. Portugal

Does the Nations League really matter? If it does, then Portugal have once more addressed the big question around them: they are tournament winners. After all, they did beat Germany and Spain to lift the title for the second time and in doing so found a way of playing where Cristiano Ronaldo was not a net negative every time the ball was in the box. The emergence of their young stars at Paris Saint-Germain really could raise the horizons for Roberto Martinez's side.

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6. England

Thomas Tuchel is very obviously preparing the ground for the big knockout matches and not much else, perfectly prepared to turn World Cup qualifying into a tedious slog if it makes England more organized for next summer's quarters, semis and perhaps final. The worry might be that so little seems fixed about this team, from who starts in the center of defense to how you construct a front six with all sorts of talent but only Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane locked into the XI. Tuchel has champagne problems, a whole case of them. 

7. Germany

Another team with a slightly imbalanced makeup with lots of technical players but questions at striker. The stalling of Nick Woltemade's proposed move to Bayern Munich may be good news for Julian Nagelsmann in that regard, the 23-year-old potentially afforded a year as a starter at Stuttgart that would have him perfectly prepared for next summer's World Cup.

8. Netherlands

Their home and away draws with Spain in the Nations League spoke to a team capable of going deep with the best of them, while a really talented midfield is emerging as Xavi Simons, Tijani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch establish themselves to supplement Frenkie De Jong. At the Euros, Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen managed important goals on the biggest stage. Does that repeat two years on?

9. Uruguay

Qualifying momentum has slowed in Montevideo since Copa America with only two wins from their last 10, at home to Colombia and Venezuela. The wins against Brazil and Argentina in this cycle are proof of the Marcelo Bielsa concept, though, all that is really required is a move for Darwin Nunez that sees him recover some of his best Liverpool form.

10. Morocco

The 2022 World Cup semifinalists look to be in even better shape than they were two and a half years ago, responding to their shock AFCON exit by reeling off a winning run that is now at 12 games, bringing Spain's record of 15 within tantalizing reach. Their place in North America will be secured if they avoid defeat to Niger in September, a side with talents like Brahim Diaz, Bilal El Khannouss and of course Achraf Hakimi can aspire for much more.

11. Norway

They're going to have to get to the World Cup first, and it shouldn't be overstated how much of a psychological barrier it is for a nation to get to a major tournament after an absence of more than a quarter of a century. But Norway are getting results and they have two legitimately world-class footballers in Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. They're surrounding them with plenty of Kristoffer Ajer-level talent too, starters for good teams in Europe's top five leagues. It'd be quite an embarrassment to label a team a dark horse for a tournament they don't even qualify for. Oh well. Norway are already the dark horses of the 2026 World Cup.

12. Italy

Faintly underwhelming preparation have not precluded Italy from deep tournament runs before: think the side that wheezed their way to Euro 2000 or even the slow start before they reached the final in 2006. In talent terms, though, this is nothing like the Azzurri of old, the attack in particular looked anaemic in the heavy defeat to Norway. The last time Italy fielded a striker with 20 international goals to their name? 2008.

13. Egypt

Another African side who look to be breezing through qualification, Egypt looked to have finally unlocked a running mate for Mohamed Salah in Omar Marmoush. If the rest of the team behind them is just solid, then that might be a recipe for a successful international campaign.

14. Belgium

Obituaries for the Belgian golden generation seem to have been written for longer than the superstars were actually toasted. Still, the dwindling availability of Kevin De Bruyne really does highlight that this is it for the age of sustained success of the 2018 bronze medallists. Then again, the Napoli man proved in a 4-3 win over Wales that he can still conjure up magic from time to time.

15. Japan

The best performing nation in Asian qualifying, Japan look to have an extremely impressive squad to work with, one whose stock is only rising off the impressive recent exploits of Hiroki Ito, Kaoru Mitoma and Ao Tanaka. If the 2022 World Cup is anything to go off, they also have an excellent in-game coach in Hajime Moriyasu. Given the right draw, this could be a team who make the quarterfinals at least.

16. Ecuador

Currently second in CONMEBOL qualifying even after a three-point penalty for fielding an ineligible player, Ecuador's defensive record is utterly ludicrous. Their 16 games have seen opponents score just five goals, Rodrygo and Jhonder Cadiz the only players to score against them in World Cup qualifiers since the start of last year. At Copa America too, they looked a robust defensive unit, no wonder when Moises Caicedo is shielding the likes of Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie.

17. Croatia

The 5-1 win over Czech Republic was yet another reminder that the grand old team of world football aren't done just yet, no matter how often skeptics insist on noting that Croatia have not won a tournament football match in normal time since 1998. Bafflingly, this team has hit a rhythm of faltering at Euros and excelling at the big one, and it still feels premature to say they won't do it again.

18. Mexico

The kings of CONCACAF have been on quite the revival in 2025. Raul Jimenez's Indian summer helps no end, and they are sure to benefit from what might just be the most febrile crowds at the entire tournament next summer. Given that the draw will favor them too, El Tri can aspire to match the quarterfinal stage they reached on each of the previous two occasions they hosted the competition.

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19. South Korea

Qualifying proved to be a breeze for the Taeguk Warriors, who proved in 2022 that they are not to be dismissed when they escaped what looked to be the group of death. Heung-min Son probably won't be the force he once was come next summer, but in Lee Kang-in and Yang Min-hyeok there is burgeoning talent to supplement him.

20. Ivory Coast

A trip to Gabon lies ahead for the AFCON holders, so we cannot take their spot at the World Cup for granted. Seriously, even in this expanded 48-team tournament, African qualifying remains one of the most brutal tests in football. Nigeria might be here, but they have a lot of work just to secure a playoff spot, let alone leapfrog South Africa in first.

Anyway, back to Ivory Coast. Theirs is a squad that looks to be in that uncomfortable valley that all but a few nations find themselves in, the bright young things like Amad Diallo and Ousmane Diomande needing time to develop while the Sebastien Hallers and Franck Kessies eke what they can out of their careers.

21. Colombia

Much like Uruguay, Colombia started World Cup qualifying in impressive fashion, even if they were harder to beat than a winning machine. Of late, the draws have stacked a bit too high for Nestor Lorenzo's Copa America silver medallists, who have won only one of eight since they stunned Argentina in Baranquilla back in September.

22. USA

Is this a smidge low? I fear I may be getting boisterous messages around July 4 next year when a favorable draw has helped Mauricio Pochettino's side to the quarterfinals. It's not hard to see how probably the most talented USMNT squad ever might surprise a few people, this writer included. It's just that so many of those teams above have a legitimate superstar on their roster, if not multiple. Those are the sort of players at both ends of the pitch who can win tournament knockout games. For all that Christian Pulisic pulled up trees last year, it was in an underwhelming AC Milan. 

After the 2022 World Cup, it felt like the U.S. had a host of players on the cusp of making the leap. It felt natural to assume that one or two of Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Giovanni Reyna and Antonee Robinson might. None of them quite have. That probably puts a hard ceiling on what the hosts can achieve.

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23. Algeria

Vladimir Petkovic's side have rallied well after defeat to Guinea early in qualifying, winning two tricky away games and then beating nearest rivals Mozambique. An intriguing matter for consideration during this season is how much energy the superstars playing in the Saudi Pro League are able to conserve for their summer exertions with the national team. If it is more than most, then that could be good news for Riyad Mahrez.

24. Iran

Iran cruised through what was probably the most manageable of the Asian qualifying groups, their only blip being a defeat to a Qatar side who really needed a win when they were already bound for North America. Mehdi Taremi remains the star attraction for Team Melli, who always prove to be a hard out at World Cups even as they fail to escape the group stage.

25. Sweden

If Sweden do qualify, expect them to go shooting up these rankings, it's just that they have not even begun what could be a tricky four-team group with Switzerland, Slovenia and Kosovo. That is a quartet ripe for delivering variance, but any team with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Dejan Kulusevski should be expecting to top it.

26. Senegal

With DR Congo ahead of them in Group B and a trip to Kinshasa to come, Pape Thiaw's side have a fair bit of work to do just to make it to North America. Were they to qualify, then you suspect Senegal could offer a compelling case for why they are the second-highest ranked team in Africa. Their squad is a fine mix of veterans like Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly alongside the industry of Nicolas Jackson and Pape Matar Sarr.

27. Canada

In Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies, Canada probably have the two most talented players in CONCACAF and head coach Jesse Marsch has proven himself adept at building strong foundations around the star players. A deep run at Copa America last year was cause for real belief but has that been quelled somewhat by an insipid, Davies-less campaign at the Gold Cup?

28. Australia

The Socceroos came through Asia's toughest group and did so in a fashion that was all the more impressive given their disastrous start. New coach Tony Popovich led Australia to a win over Japan before they held their nerve in Saudi Arabia, striking back from an early deficit to ensure that they were the ones to finish second in Group C. This isn't a team replete with the star names of the 2000s but as it proved in 2022, it can be a formidable unit. 

29. Jordan

World Cup debutants have been on an impressive trajectory for some time now, reaching the final of the 2023 Asia Cup with wins over the likes of Iraq and South Korea. They didn't want for goals in qualifying, Yazan Al-Naimat and Ali Olwan among the sextet of forwards who topped the charts in the third round with five to their name.

30. Uzbekistan

Look we're flying a bit blind at these depths of the rankings, the battle for second place behind Iran not particularly one that caught the eye during the Asian qualifying cycle. Still a defense anchored by Manchester City's Abdukodir Khusanov ended the 10-game cycle with an impressive record of just seven goals conceded, always a good sign ahead of an international tournament.

31. Panama

It seems reasonable to assume that Panama, the highest rated non-host in CONCACAF, will be at the World Cup, whether through topping their four-team group or perhaps even through the intercontinental playoffs. Thomas Christiansen's side looked impressive at the Gold Cup before a penalty shootout loss to Honduras with Ismael Diaz in particularly fine form.

32. New Zealand

This isn't an Auckland City situation by any stretch of the imagination, the fact that New Zealand are bottom of these rankings does not mean they will be when the field expands to 48. After all, they have Chris Wood in the form of his life with Nottingham Forest and a triumvirate of defenders from MLS: Michael Boxall, Finn Surman and Bill Tuiloma. They beat Ivory Coast in a friendly last month, too. It's just that any team whose toughest opponents in qualifying were Fiji and New Caledonia are hard to assess.