2026 World Cup Power Rankings: USMNT in big trouble, Lionel Messi's Argentina slip and Japan are contenders

We're midway through the September international break and already spots at the 2026 World Cup are being snapped up at a swift rate. There are now 17 teams assured of their spot at the tournament, with CONMEBOL having locked up the six best teams in South America. Africa's first representative is also confirmed, Morocco breezing through their qualification group with history in their sight. They could soon be joined by the likes of Egypt and South Africa while Cape Verde Islands vie to stun the footballing world.

As was the case over the summer, we're keeping this to a more manageable 32. Rest assured that when the field is at its full 48, you'll get every team in it ranked from top to tail.

1. Spain (--)

There was a case to be made that Spain's undersized group might pose its difficulties for the European champions. I should know. I made it. And perhaps that will still be the case with games against Turkey to come. Still Spain negotiated their opener with aplomb, racing to a 3-0 lead before halftime in Bulgaria and putting their feet up from there on out.

2. France (+1)

Last time out, we labelled Spain and Argentina 1A and 1B; perhaps it was harsh not to include the 2018 winners as 1C. After all, they have big tournament pedigree and keep unlocking stars to add something extra to Didier Deschamps' cautious but effective system. Michael Olise in the hole was the pick of the players in a 2-0 win against Ukraine in Wroclaw, one where Ousmane Dembele, Hugo Ekitike and the promising Maghnes Akliouche had to settle for substitute minutes. Marcus Thuram didn't even see the field.

3. Argentina (-1)

Long since guaranteed top spot in CONMEBOL, Argentina showed no inclination to ease their dominance of South American qualifying with a 3-0 win over Venezuela. It proved to be the perfect send-off for Lionel Messi, who scored a brace in what is expected to be his final official national team game on Argentine soil. He continues to cast doubt over whether he will play at next summer's World Cup, but in the lower pace international game, he could surely have a major impact.

Lionel Messi scores clever goal for Argentina in World Cup winner's potentially last official home match

Roger Gonzalez

4. Brazil (--)

The 3-0 win over Chile was the first time in a while Brazil have really looked like a team capable of cutting loose, and it did seem notable that the Selecao were able to achieve so much without big names such as Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Neymar. It rather seemed that star whisperer Carlo Ancelotti might be the perfect man to find a system for Brazil's top players; might the form of Gabriel Martinelli and Estevao have him thinking differently?

5. Portugal (--)

The sheer talent that Roberto Martinez could roll out in the 5-0 win over Armenia was dizzying, and Portugal look like a team who could be benefitting from a few club synchronicities. Certainly, they won't complain about having two of the best midfielders in the game with Vitinha and Joao Neves reprising their Paris Saint-Germain pairing. Cristiano Ronaldo remains a player that could cause contention come the World Cup, but he really does have a knack for scoring against the little guys.

6. England (--)

Are England an eyesore at home to Andorra because Thomas Tuchel hasn't yet worked out how his team should play or because he is really rather close to doing so and wants to bed in that approach for the World Cup? We might not know until a fair way through next summer, but they've got a Champions League winner in the dugout, they get the benefit of the doubt. Before then, how they fare in Serbia might be the best data point available.

7. Uruguay (+2)

One of a string of South American sides to formalize their spot in North America this summer, Marcelo Bielsa's side impressively dismantled Peru on home soil and their midfield trio of Rodrigo Bentancur, Federico Valverde and Giorgian De Arrascaeta looks like it ticks all the boxes. If Darwin Nunez can recover some form in Saudi Arabia, this is a team that could achieve a lot.

8. Morocco (+2)

The first African team to secure qualification, the Atlas Lions are edging towards Spain's record 15 international wins; three more would take them there. After all, this is a team that have retained the core from their run to the semifinals in 2022, supplementing it with the likes of Brahim Diaz, who has nine goals in his first 12 internationals.

9. Netherlands (-1)

Ronald Koeman's side started qualification well and a passage across the Atlantic remains firmly in their control. However, a 1-1 draw at home to Poland exposed some familiar flaws in the Dutch side. For several years now, they have had the look of a team that can keep the ball but may not always cut their opposition open as often as they should, and so it was in Rotterdam, where 74% possession resulted in just 14 shots and one goal, leaving the hosts vulnerable to Matty Cash's late sucker punch.

10. Germany (-3)

One of the remarkable records of international football ended in dreary fashion on Thursday night as Germany suffered their first-ever away loss in 53 World Cup qualifiers. They could have no complaints either, Slovakia thoroughly meriting a 2-0 win that just creates a few headaches in what might have been a navigable group of four. Julian Nagelsmann's side will probably qualify and when they do they'll move up these rankings but for now they've opened themselves up to a few difficulties.

11. Norway (--)

At the time of writing, there hasn't been a great deal more to learn about Norway, though a 1-0 win over Finland is hardly to be sniffed at. Three of their four remaining qualifiers are on home soil, but until they have navigated their way past Italy, who they face in Milan on the final matchday, there will be questions about whether this talented squad can get back to a major tournament. Still, a run of nine wins in their last 10 suggests you should trust them to get the results.

12. Egypt (+1)

Mohamed Salah and company aren't quite there yet, but they have guaranteed themselves at least a top-two finish and would be assured of a return to the global stage with a win in Burkina Faso on September 9. Salah and Omar Marmoush will inevitably steal the headlines, but a record of just two goals conceded in seven games points to the other great strength of this side, who can rely on club connections at the back while Premier League talent wins the day at the other end.

13. Japan (+3)

Our highest risers despite not having played a competitive game. Consider this to be partly an admission that Japan were underestimated in our last rankings but also a pointer towards how high European football has been on the Samurai Blue lately. Ritsu Doan has proven himself to be a shrewd pick-up by Eintracht Frankfurt early in the new season. Meanwhile, stars of Birmingham City's robust start to the Championship season -- Takumi Iwata and Kyogo Furuhashi -- can barely get a sniff of Hajime Moriyasu's squad. I'm calling it now. Japan are World Cup dark horses.

14. Italy (-2)

A 5-0 win over Estonia was an encouraging if expected start to Gennaro Gattuso's tenure, but it is worth noting that Italy took a while to get going before Moise Kean started the rout in the 58th minute. That is not the reason they are two places lower, however. It is that the teams above them keep getting the results they need. Israel's win in Moldova was suboptimal for the Azzurri, who risk being cut adrift from Group I's top two if they lose to the Israelis in Debrecen on Monday night. The stakes are simply too high to push this team up.

UEFA World Cup qualifying schedule, table, results: Spain's tricky path, could Italy miss a third straight?

James Benge

15. Ecuador (--)

If ever there were a team that should start a side hustle in launderettes, it's Ecuador. These guys can't help but deliver clean sheets, going to Paraguay and holding firm to make it four in a row without conceding. Had they not been dinged three points before qualifying for falsifying the birth documents of Byron Castillo, La Tri would be second in the CONMEBOL standings, a rich reward for a side who have let in just five goals in 17 qualifiers.

16. Belgium (-2)

Barring something catastrophic, you're not going to learn much this qualifying cycle given that it's Liechtenstein away (beaten 6-0) and Kazakhstan at home. Ultimately, Belgium need to avoid any slip-ups next time out, when they host North Macedonia and travel to Wales. Do that and they'll be bound for the World Cup, no matter that it's hard to get excited by them.

17. South Korea (+2)

Son Heung-min's bright start to life in MLS augurs well for South Korea. The 33 year old may have been losing the burst that allowed him to bully top-tier Premier League defenders but his performance in the 2-0 win over the United States suggests he has plenty left to give on the international stage. Behind him Paik Seung-ho and Kim Min-jae are the strongest elements in a robust spine.

18. Mexico (--)

A 0-0 draw with Japan extended Mexico's unbeaten streak to seven games and probably suggests that the Gold Cup winners belong in that third or fourth echelon of World Cup teams. They aren't potential winners, but given the right breaks in their draw and a few good performances, they can aspire to make a deep run.

21. Croatia (-3)

You're absolutely right, they're getting dinged for only beating the Faroe Islands 1-0. Some of that might be explained by an excellent display by Mattias Lamhauge in goal, and it is worth noting that this was a comparatively young Croatia starting XI, where the likes of Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic got into the XI ahead of Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric. The 5-1 win over Czechia serves as proof of how Croatia raise their game against big-name opposition, as does their dragging of France to penalties in the Nations League, but this is a team that have been reliably inconsistent for nearly two years now.

20. Colombia (+1)

Bound for the World Cup, Colombia ended a lengthy winless run of six games on Thursday, brushing their way past a Bolivia side with plenty to play for as the battle for the inter-confederation play-off spot heats up. Nearly 12 years after that World Cup, James Rodriguez is still one of the star players for Los Cafeteros, who could do with unearthing a high grade center forward to play alongside the 34 year old and Luis Diaz.

21. Ivory Coast (-1)

One of the biggest games of the World Cup qualifying cycle takes place in Franceville on Tuesday when Gabon host the Ivory Coast, whose destiny is in their hands but who cannot get separation from the team in second place. That is all the more remarkable when you consider that through seven games, the Elephants have six wins and a draw, zero goals conceded. Truly, African qualifying is unreasonably difficult.

22. Algeria (+1)

There is not quite as much work left for the Fennecs, who are six points ahead of Uganda with three games left to play. The emergence of Mohamed Amoura, who had an impressive time on loan with Wolfsburg last season, offers a bit more verve and youth in what is otherwise something of a veteran attack.

23. Paraguay (NR)

They probably won't be queuing around the block to see a team with 13 goals scored and 10 conceded in 17 CONMEBOL qualifiers, but Paraguay need not care, they'll be back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010. This is an attritional, organized side who have four of the six most frequent tacklers in World Cup qualifying but only one, Andres Cuba, with over 20 fouls to his name.

24. Iran (--)

It has all been rather plain sailing for Iran, currently in the midst of the CAFA Nations Cup between central Asian sides. They will face Uzbekistan in the final on Monday and will presumably be favorites to win. On the basis that so many of Amir Ghalenoei's squad play in a domestic league whose squads struggled to make much impact on the AFC Champions League, this may not be a vintage era for Team Melli. However, they remain a team who are used to winning.

25. Canada (+2)

They might not have the strength in depth of the other hosts, and it is not so long ago that they crashed out of the Gold Cup early on. Still, a 3-0 win in Romania, their first triumph on European soil since 2011, augurs very well for Jesse Marsch's side. This is a team that seem to know just what they are doing in a 4-4-2 system that gets the best out of their best players, most notably Jonathan David. 

26. USA (-4)

You've had to travel a long way to get here, so let's not pull any punches, shall we? It's not looking good. Mauricio Pochettino's insistence that the USA had had the better of South Korea falls apart after one crucial fact: this was a friendly that they were chasing for 72 minutes. Across most of that time, the USA's only great chance fell to substitute Chris Richards, and it was only a string of scrappy late misses by Folarin Balogun that bumped the xG tally up. 

USMNT's worrying trends continue: With World Cup looming, can slow starts end and cohesion finally be found?

Pardeep Cattry

There seem to be too many positions in this lineup that Pochettino needs to iron out without any competitive games in which to do so. Who is the No.1 or the No.9? Tyler Adams and Richards are the only two players getting exposed to some of the best opponents in the world on a weekly basis, and neither seem to have partners. Christian Pulisic is still taking corners for reasons unknown. You can see why Malik Tillman was left out of the squad for the September internationals, given his need to integrate himself with Bayer Leverkusen, but that means one fewer window to see if he fits alongside Pulisic and the rest of the attack.

Suppose all of this does come together, the talent profile of this ceiling isn't what it promised to be in 2022. That's normal; plenty of great players get lost along the way in even the most high-functioning national setups. What those have, however, is a pathway to keep topping up. When Weston McKennie struggles to kick on, he finds someone else smashing down the door in pursuit of his starting jersey. That hasn't happened with the USMNT. There's still a world where they do themselves proud next summer, passionate crowds inspiring them through a few knockout rounds, but that is feeling more like a dream scenario than a realistic outcome.

27. Australia (+1)

They're halfway to winning the Soccer Ashes. No, I didn't know that was a real thing either. But I love it. I'm sure we're all united in hope that this is the only Ashes that Australia win in the coming months.

28. Sweden (-3)

It's worth repeating what we said last time out, that this is a team that could go flying up our rankings if they secure their spot at the World Cup. For now, though qualification has become that iota or two harder after a last-minute goal for Slovenia earned them a 2-2 draw with the Swedes in Ljubljana. Usually that would be a result to toast but UEFA have handed Jon Dahl Tomasson's talented squad a particularly tricky group, one that Switzerland will believe is theirs to win by right.

29. Senegal (-3)

A team who have dropped in the rankings through no fault of their own -- their last match was a solid enough 2-0 win over Sudan -- but because they are teetering over an awkward precipice. Pape Thiaw's side keep winning but then so do DR Congo. If Senegal do indeed get to the World Cup, then it is plausible that they reprise some of their lockdown defending from AFCON in 2022, relying on veterans like Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly to earn them big wins.

30. Uzbekistan (--)

Iran's opponents in the CAFA Nations Cup final are on an impressive, undefeated streak dating back to Nov. 14 last year. In that time, they have proven themselves to be a match for some of the more successful teams in Asia, but it is hard to know how that will really translate into a World Cup, particularly when only four of their players play in bigger European leagues, three in Turkey and Abdukodir Khusanov at Manchester City.

31. Jordan (-2)

Since we last checked in on Jordan, they drew 0-0 with Russia. Yeah, not a lot to say here.

32. New Zealand (--)

As above, there's not a lot to take away from a game or two against Australia. Perhaps this ranking will change for the better in October, when the All Whites travel to Poland and Norway for friendlies.