2026 FIFA World Cup predictions, picking every game: USMNT make knockouts; Messi vs. Ronaldo; France champions
The 48-team field yields a high quality last eight with heavyweight matchups ultimately leading to an England vs. France showdown in the final
The World Cup is finally set. On March 31, Iraq became the 48th and final team to qualify for this summer's tournament. All 104 matches are teed up and ready to go, and the path to the final in New York/New Jersey now lies ahead. Given the sheer weight of fixtures, the seemingly endless permutations for what happens to the eight best-performing third-placed teams and the downright unknowability of how over 1,000 footballers, many bedraggled by a gruelling club season, will fare in the North American summer, it is surely a fool's errand to try to predict how this will all shake out?
Yes, yes it is.
And yet here we are. Onwards into the football that lies ahead. It's time to make fools of ourselves.
Group A predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mexico | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
2 | South Korea | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
3 | South Africa | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
4 | Czechia | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Matchday 1 picks
Mexico 3, South Africa 1
South Korea 2, Czechia 2
Matchday 2 picks
South Africa 1, Czechia 0
Mexico 1, South Korea 1
Matchday 3 picks
Mexico 0, Czechia 0
South Africa 1, South Korea 2
Probably the most balanced group in the World Cup on paper delivers similar parity on the field, at least after hosts Mexico start the tournament in style with a victory over South Africa in the Azteca. Raul Jimenez proves himself to be ageless in leading the Mexican line, and though this squad is not the most star-studded in the history of El Tri, it looks like one that might be a tough out on home soil. Meanwhile, a rallying win for Bafana Bafana against the Czechs might not be enough to earn them a third-place spot in the knockouts.
Group B predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Switzerland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
2 | Bosnia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
3 | Canada | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
Canada 1, Bosnia 2
Qatar 0, Switzerland 3
Matchday 2 picks
Switzerland 1, Bosnia 0
Canada 2, Qatar 0
Matchday 3 picks
Switzerland 0, Canada 0
Qatar 0, Bosnia 1
The tournament might begin in dispiriting fashion for Jesse Marsch's Canada, but five days after defeat in Toronto, they rally impressively to beat Qatar before holding a customarily professional Switzerland to a point in Vancouver, a result that all but guarantees they will be among the last 32. The Swiss, meanwhile, just motor along with Johan Mazambi threatening to establish himself as one of the breakout stars of the tournament.
Group C predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brazil | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
2 | Morocco | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
3 | Scotland | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
4 | Haiti | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
Brazil 2, Morocco 2
Haiti 0, Scotland 2
Matchday 2 picks
Scotland 1, Morocco 1
Brazil 4, Haiti 0
Matchday 3 picks
Scotland 0, Brazil 3
Morocco 3, Haiti 1
Brazil stumble out of the gates at MetLife Stadium, twice finding themselves pegged back by the African champions/near-champions (delete as applicable according to CAS judgement, we're not predicting that!), before Vinicius Junior scores late on to ensure the Selecao avoid an ignominious start. It's a wobbly burst out of the gates for Scotland too, who need plenty of time to get past Haiti and struggle early on against the Moroccans. Still, their snatching of a point in Foxborough means they have probably done enough to reach the knockout stages for the first time in their history.
Group D predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | United States | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
2 | Turkey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
3 | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
4 | Australia | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Matchday 1 picks
United States 2, Paraguay 0
Australia 2, Turkey 2
Matchday 2 picks
United States 1, Australia 1
Paraguay 1, Turkey 3
Matchday 3 picks
United States 2, Turkey 1
Paraguay 2, Australia 1
What was there to worry about? The USMNT's progress is hardly serene, but then this ultimately proved to be a trickier group than it looked on draw day. Turkey give Mauricio Pochettino's side plenty to think about at SoFi Stadium before Weston McKennie's late winner delivers top spot for the hosts, who had similarly gone through 90 stress-inducing minutes against Paraguay and Australia, whose tournament proves to be one of valiant near misses.
Group E predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ecuador | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
2 | Germany | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
3 | Ivory Coast | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
4 | Curacao | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
Germany 5, Curacao 1
Ivory Coast 0, Ecuador 0
Matchday 2 picks
Germany 2, Ivory Coast 1
Ecuador 3, Curacao 0
Matchday 3 picks
Curacao 0, Ivory Coast 3
Ecuador 1, Germany 0
Germany come flying out of the blocks, but its something of a case of the tortoise and hare between them and Ecuador in a surprisingly competitive race for top spot. It is the South Americans who claim it in the final round of games, grinding their way to a third clean sheet from three as they prove themselves to be worthy of their strong billing from the qualifiers. On paper, Ivory Coast's achievements look unremarkable, but given the strength of their group, they profile as one of the most dangerous third-place sides out there.
Group F predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Japan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
2 | Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
3 | Sweden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
4 | Tunisia | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Netherlands 2, Japan 1
Sweden 3, Tunisia 1
Matchday 2 picks
Netherlands 2, Sweden 2
Tunisia 0, Japan 1
Matchday 3 picks
Japan 2, Sweden 0
Tunisia 0, Netherlands 0
The group of death might not claim any heads, but it proves to be perhaps the most topsy-turvy quartet at the World Cup, even within the games. As was the case in the qualifiers, Sweden start very slowly, but this time can overcome their setback within their opening match as Viktor Gyokeres turns the tide after Tunisia's opener. Japan have to wait a while longer to get their competition going, but when things click in that final game against Sweden, Hajime Moriyasu's men have the look of true dark horses.
Group G predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Belgium | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
2 | Egypt | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
3 | Iran | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
4 | New Zealand | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Belgium 4, Egypt 1
Iran 1, New Zealand 0
Matchday 2 picks
Belgium 2, Iran 0
New Zealand 1, Egypt 1
Matchday 3 picks
Egypt 1, Iran 0
New Zealand 0, Belgium 3
Belgium make light work of what is one of the more favorable groups on paper, but pressure ratchets up on Egypt after they fail to take care of business against an organised New Zealand. It looks like the Pharaohs are bound for elimination until Mohamed Salah strikes late on, delivering his nation's first-ever World Cup win and setting them up to try and get a second soon after.
Group H predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Spain | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
2 | Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
4 | Cape Verde | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Spain 6, Cape Verde 0
Saudi Arabia 1, Uruguay 2
Matchday 2 picks
Spain 3, Saudi Arabia 0
Uruguay 3, Cape Verde 1
Matchday 3 picks
Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 2
Uruguay 1, Spain 4
Swaggering out of the blocks come Spain, whose takedown of Uruguay affirms their status as post-group stage favorites. As if their obliterations of the rest of the field hadn't done that anyway. Ultimately, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia contrive to knock each other out with a draw in their final match, this proving to be the group that goes extremely as expected.
Group I predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | France | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
2 | Senegal | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
3 | Norway | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Iraq | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
France 1, Senegal 1
Norway 4, Iraq 0
Matchday 2 picks
France 4, Iraq 1
Norway 1, Senegal 2
Matchday 3 picks
Norway 2, France 3
Senegal 1, Iraq 1
All those warnings to remember the warnings of 2002 and France very nearly mess it up again against Senegal. A near quarter century on, they find their equalizer, but look behind the eight ball as Erling Haaland roars into the World Cup with a hat trick on debut. Then this topsy-turvy group pivots six days later when the Norwegians are beaten in New York/New Jersey, though their performance in defeat against the French in Foxborough immediately establishes them as the third-place team to fear in the knockouts.
Group J predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Argentina | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
2 | Austria | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
3 | Algeria | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
4 | Jordan | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
Argentina 1, Algeria 0
Austria 3, Jordan 1
Matchday 2 picks
Argentina 2, Austria 2
Jordan 0, Algeria 1
Matchday 3 picks
Algeria 0, Austria 0
Jordan 0, Argentina 3
Argentina begin their tournament in the fashion to which the world has become accustomed in the age of Lionel Messi: underwhelmingly. Having scraped past Algeria, the running power of Austria looks to have discombobulated them, even if Julian Alvarez, Messi and Lautaro Martinez ensure the damage is not too severe. A draw in the finale rather suits both Austria and Algeria, shining a light on how the advancement of third-place teams dulls what would otherwise be high-stakes encounters.
Group K predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Portugal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
2 | Colombia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
3 | DR Congo | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
4 | Uzbekistan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
Matchday 1 picks
Portugal 2, DR Congo 0
Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 0
Matchday 2 picks
Portugal 3, Uzbekistan 1
Colombia 2, DR Congo 1
Matchday 3 picks
Colombia 2, Portugal 1
Uzbekistan 0, DR Congo 3
The World Cup gets its first grand upset in the Azteca as Uzbekistan somehow cling to the lead they claimed on the stroke of half-time, sending palpitations through what already looked like a group replete with danger. Colombia roar back after their slow start, Luis Diaz inspiring them to tight, but impressive, wins over both Congo and Portugal.
Group L predictions
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | England | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
2 | Ghana | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
3 | Croatia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
4 | Panama | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
England 1, Croatia 0
Ghana 2, Panama 0
Matchday 2 picks
England 3, Ghana 1
Panama 0, Croatia 1
Matchday 3 picks
Panama 0, England 2
Croatia 1, Ghana 1
England progress through their group in just the fashion that Thomas Tuchel would want. It's controlled, authoritative and far from easy on the eye, the 2-0 win over Panama even bringing a few grumbles that Gareth Southgate's team put them to the sword eight years earlier. Ghana, meanwhile, get ahead of Croatia by virtue of goals scored in what is not a group that lives long in the memory.
The best third-placed teams
Now this is where the whole prediction game is at risk of creaking. When we did this four years ago it was really quite straightforward: top two go through, wave farewell to the rest. Honestly, even when we did it for a 24-team Euros, the permutations weren't that complex. Four third-placed teams from six groups going through, that's only 15 scenarios to puzzle out. Eight from 12? There are 495 possible combinations, which are available in Annex C of the regulations, for those who want to check my workings. And please do.
Still, it would appear that DR Congo go into their final game against Uzbekistan knowing that they don't just need to win, they need to rack up the goals if they are to have a chance of reaching the last 32. They do exactly that and advance in a fashion that feels a little unfair to South Africa, which simply could not have known what was required of them with the same level of confidence.
Anyway, ithe eight teams joining the top two are Canada, Scotland, Ivory Coast, Sweden, Norway, Algeria, DR Congo and Croatia. Path No.95 it is. All roads lead to what FIFA would ask us not to call MetLife Stadium.
Round of 32 picks
Ecuador 2, Scotland 1
France 3, Sweden 0
South Korea 1, Bosnia 2
Japan 1, Morocco 0 (a.e.t.)
Colombia 3, Ghana 1
Spain 1, Austria 0
United States 2, Canada 2 (USA advance on penalties)
Belgium 1, Norway 3
Brazil 4, Netherlands 2
Germany 2, Senegal 1 (a.e.t.)
Mexico 1, Ivory Coast 0
England 2, DR Congo 0
Argentina 4, Uruguay 1
Turkey 0, Egypt 1 (a.e.t.)
Switzerland 0, Algeria 2
Portugal 2, Croatia 0
The World Cup final might still feel a long way off, but it is remarkable how many of these games do not feel one-sided. Those that do, well, maybe that's because the better team is just that good. Here's looking at you, France blowing Sweden out of the water.
There's shocks too, although is Norway winning against Belgium that much of a surprise in 2026? One is in the last throws of their golden generation, the other looks to be on the up. Algeria too, overcome the favorites, as Switzerland lose their shot at revenge for their humiliation in Qatar. Meanwhile, Brazil's clash with the Netherlands is the first footballing feast of the knockouts, Vinicius Junior reaffirming his status as one of the best in the world.
Really, though there's only one thing you're all interested in, right? It's Canada vs. the U.S.A., Jesse Marsch vs. the programme that spurned him, and it's a barnburner. The U.S. strike first, but their friends from the north roar back to take the tie to extra time, where Christian Pulisic scores, but the hosts concede from a set piece. It is decided from 12 yards as the USA squeak through off keeper Matt Freese's heroics. Can they go even further?
Round of 16 picks
Ecuador 0, France 2
Bosnia 1, Japan 2
Colombia 0, Spain 1
USA 1, Norway 3
Brazil 2, Germany 0
Mexico 0, England 1 (a.e.t.)
Argentina 2, Egypt 0
Algeria 1, Portugal 1 (Portugal advance on penalties)
No, they cannot. And ultimately that's no great surprise. There are no counters Pochettino can throw at Haaland when he is at full force, and Norway ultimately cruise to a quarterfinals that really has the look of a platonic ideal: five former winners, and Portugal, a big beast who really must hope this is their moment despite evidence to the contrary. They're not very good against Algeria at all, but they get the job done from six yards out.
As for England, it really looks like they are wilting in the Azteca. A home crowd is on their back, frustration is mounting, the website formerly known as Twitter is ablaze. And then Thomas Tuchel turns to his bench and finds it crowded with vibrant young attacking talent. The Three Lions just about find a way.
Germany do not. Ultimately they pay the price for failing to top their group and fall to Brazil. It's feeling like the summer of Vinicius Junior, this.
Quarterfinal picks
France 3, Japan 1
Spain 2, Norway 0
Brazil 0, England 1
Argentina 1, Portugal 2 (a.e.t.)
Until it isn't. A little more recharged than you might think after six days' rest, England deliver the sort of tournament performance they never have before as Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson and Jude Bellingham get a grip of the midfield and never really let go. There's similar control from Spain, of course, while France just have a level of firepower that Japan cannot slow.
Those three games do rather feel like they're building to the moment the world has been waiting for. The two great footballers of their age, facing off in this last dance. For so long it feels like a tournament going Lionel Messi's way, at 38 he's still one of the greatest players on the planet. Then Roberto Martinez does the unimaginable. With 15 minutes to play, off goes Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal fly. The final is within reach.
Semifinal picks
France 2, Spain 2 (France advance on penalties)
England 2, Portugal 1
France against Spain proves to be everything you'd want and more. The two best teams in the tournament take chunks out of each other, Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe incomparably excellent, but neither can quite land the decisive blow. No matter, no one is complaining about two hours of this footballing feast. France just about find a way through on penalties.
England and Portugal is naturally not quite the footballing feast of the other semi, but that's no wonder. Most of their supporters have never seen their nation play in a World Cup final. It's scrappy, tense, and it's won at the death, an inswinging corner meeting the head of Harry Kane.
Third place playoff pick
Spain 0, Portugal 1
You simply cannot deny that every four years, this fixture is fulfilled.
Final pick
France 2, England 0
After a month of high drama, shock twists and footballing excellence, it has all led to this. The 2026 World Cup Final is... a bit underwhelming to be honest. England aren't bad, per se. They certainly don't choke. It's just, there are levels to this game, and the one France can reach is significantly higher. There is no answer for Mbappe and Michael Olise on the day, and the French reign over the world game is extended. Two titles in eight years, a final appearance in between. They are the great international team of the age.
