The Florida State Seminoles will be at home again for their second game of the season, but it will be a much tougher test when they host the 19th-ranked SMU Mustangs on Monday in a Week 1 college football matchup. The Seminoles (1-0) took a pretty easy 34-17 victory against New Mexico State last Saturday, while the Mustangs will be kicking off their 2026 college football season. Florida State went 5-7 last season, and coach Mike Norvell is on one of the hottest seats in FBS in his seventh season. SMU went 9-4 in 2025 after coach Rhett Lashlee led them to the College Football Playoff in 2024. We're looking at some of the trading markets available for the SMU vs. FSU matchup on two of the best prediction market apps -- Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms each offer prediction market bonuses for new users in states where prediction markets are legal.
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SMU vs. FSU prediction markets
- SMU to win: 56% (Polymarket)
- Florida State to win: 44% (Polymarket)
- SMU to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.52, No $0.49 (Kalshi)
- More than 54.5 points: Yes $0.52, No $0.49 (Kalshi)
SMU to win: 56% (Polymarket)
The Mustangs are looking for a similar result to what happened the last time these teams met, when SMU took a 42-16 victory in 2024. Lashlee led SMU to the College Football Playoff following that season as it won 11 games for a second consecutive campaign. The Mustangs went 9-4 (6-2 in ACC) last season and beat Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. The coach is 38-16 in his first four seasons, and he has quarterback Kevin Jennings back for a third year as the starter. The senior threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2025. He plays behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in FBS and led a unit that averaged 32 points and 417 yards per game. The defense was in the top 20 against the run, so this will be strength against strength, with FSU boasting a deep and talented running back room.
A Mustangs victory over the Seminoles on Monday is trading at 56% at Polymarket.
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Florida State to win: 44% (Polymarket)
The Seminoles are in desperation mode after they went 5-7 to miss a bowl game for the second straight year and putting Norvell on one of the hottest seats in the sport. FSU had little trouble with New Mexico State, and quarterback Ashton Daniels had some good and bad moments in throwing for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The offense did a lot of its damage on the ground, with FSU rushing for 217 yards. Ousmane Kromah had 115 on 15 carries (8.2 per attempt) and Quintrevion Wisner averaged 8.5 yards on his four rushes. Receivers Duce Robinson, Samuel Singleton and Micahi Danzy each had at least 50 receiving yards. The FSU defense was stout against the run, allowing just 47 yards, but gave up 272 yards through the air. The Seminoles averaged 33 points in 2025 while yielding 22 per game.
An FSU home victory Monday is given a 44% probability at Polymarket.
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SMU to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.52, No $0.49 (Kalshi)
Jennings has tons of experience and has been a big part of the team's success the past few years, but he has a strong stable of backs behind him. Kendrick Raphael comes over from Cal after rushing for 111 yards and a touchdown in last year's 38-35 victory that cost SMU a potential shot at making the College Football Playoff. The new running back will join versatile receiver Derrick McFall (349 total yards in 2025) as players who can draw attention away from Jennings. Transfers Yannick Smith (East Carolina) at receiver and tight ends Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M) and Randy Pittman (Florida State) also were brought in to bolster the offense. Senior receiver Yamir Knight is back after posting 54 catches for 637 yards and five touchdowns last season. The SMU offense scored at least 30 points eight times in 2025.
SMU to win by a field goal or more is trading for $0.52 per share at Kalshi, while FSU losing by two or fewer points or winning outright is trading at $0.49 per share.
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More than 54.5 points: Yes $0.52, No $0.49 (Kalshi)
The Seminoles got the first-game butterflies out of the way last week, and putting up 34 points gives the offense some confidence heading into a big conference game. SMU could have some first-game jitters in a hostile environment but it is a veteran unit, and Jennings has been a problem for many defenses. Daniels has an excellent run game to keep the pressure off him, and having the playmaker Robinson to seemingly always get open downfield makes the QB's job easier. Daniels also can make plays with his legs, as he rushed for 30 yards in the opener. The Mustangs have a strong defense but lost some critical pieces, including Isaiah Smith and his 8.5 sacks from last season.
Kalshi has shares on these teams combining for at least 55 points for $0.52 each, and the teams to go below the 54.5 points is $0.49 per share.
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