How to trade on NFL: Where to trade, best sites, apps, promos for Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions, picks

NFL fans weren't sure if we'd see it again, especially this early, but the Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce connection is back for Week 1 of the NFL season. Mahomes is fully healed from the torn ACL and LCL he suffered in December, and Kelce decided to return for another season. These are two of the league's most popular players, which will make Chiefs vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football a popular option tonight at prediction market apps. Mahomes and Kelce have had some dominant moments against Denver, but the Broncos have won three straight contests against the Chiefs, which is something to consider when looking over some of the best prediction market promos available at NFL prediction market. Trade on the NFL at Kalshi here and get $25 in bonus trading credits after $25 of trades with the promo code CBSSPORTS:

The Chiefs are trading at $0.56 per contract to win, while the Broncos are $0.44. Kansas City is trading at $0.50 per contract to win by 2.5 points or more, while the "No" on that outcome is priced at $0.51. More than 43.5 total points is priced at $0.51, while fewer than 43.5 total points is $0.50. 

If you're wondering how to trade on the NFL and where to trade on NFL Week 1 games, learn more about the top prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX and Underdog, below, along with NFL Week 1 predictions.

Where to trade on NFL Week 1

How to sign up for the Kalshi referral code CBSSPORTS

1. Tap the CLAIM BONUS button and download the Kalshi app.
   
2. Be 18+ within a state where Kalshi operates. Register for a Kalshi account and enter the information requested, including name, address, phone number and SSN. Do not forget the Kalshi referral code CBSSPORTS to lock in the bonus offer. 
3. Once registered, tap the green "Deposit Cash" button, choose your desired deposit method and follow the steps. 
4. New users must trade at least $25 in contracts.
5. Eligible users receive $25 in bonus trading credits. Trading credits expire seven days after initial receipt. 

Claim your Kalshi bonus here, and remember to use the Kalshi referral code CBSSPORTS:

How to sign up for the Polymarket referral code CBSSPORTS

1. Tap the CLAIM BONUS button above or anywhere on this page and download the Polymarket app.
2. Register for a Polymarket account and enter the required information, including name, address, phone number, and SSN. Be sure to enter the Polymarket referral code CBSSPORTS to secure the trading bonus offer and receive instant access to the Polymarket app.
3. Once registered, make your first deposit using your desired deposit method and follow the prompts.
4. New users must deposit at least $10 in contracts for the $50 trading bonus to be applied to their account.

After depositing $10 with the Polymarket promo code, new users will be given a $50 trading bonus:

How to sign up for the Underdog promo code CBS

1. Tap the CLAIM BONUS button anywhere on this page and download the Underdog Sports app.
2. Create an Underdog account and enter the required information, such as name, phone number, address and SSN. Users must be 18+ (19+ in AL, NE; 19+ in CO for some games; 21+ in AZ, MA & VA) and have a legal U.S. residential address in a state where Underdog operates legitimately.
3. Use the Underdog promo code CBS to be able to claim your reward
4. Verify your email
5. Make a first-time deposit and receive 50% of your deposit in bonus funds
6. Receive bonus funds within 72 hours of your first deposit. 

Bonus funds can't be used on prediction markets, but they can be used on fantasy entries and DFS at Underdog. This promo is not available in MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA. 

Claim your Underdog promo code CBS here:

How to sign up for the ProphetX promo code CBSSPORTS

Signing up for ProphetX prediction markets is straightforward. Follow this step-by-step process to claim the ProphetX promo offer:

1. Be 18+ and located in a ProphetX-eligible state.
2. Tap one of the CLAIM BONUS buttons on this page, and register for a new account with ProphetX promo code CBSSPORTS. 
3. Provide the required ID verification information, such as full name, date of birth, address, email and Social Security. 
4. After providing credentials, you'll have to verify your identity to complete registration and claim the ProphetX welcome offer.
5. After registering, make a deposit by choosing one of the available payment methods. 
6. Once funds are received, you can begin trading on sports using the ProphetX prediction markets platform.
7. Make trades totaling at least $50 within 30 days and then receive $75 trading bonus over 14 days.

ProphetX sports event contract trading is available in most states, including California prediction market apps. 

Tap here to get your ProphetX $75 incentive funds with ProphetX promo code CBSSPORTS:

How prediction markets work

Prediction markets offer event contracts where users can purchase positions on a result at a given price (between $0.01 and $0.99). If you're correct, those positions pay out at $1.00 per contract. 

Contract prices are reflective of what the market predicts the win probability to be and are subject to change as money comes in. Here's a guide showing event contract prices along with their equivalent American odds:

Equivalent odds for NFL prediction market prices

• $0.10 per contract = +900
• $0.20 per contract = +400
• $0.30 per contract = +233
• $0.40 per contract = +150
• $0.50 per contract = +100
• $0.60 per contract = -150
• $0.70 per contract = -233
• $0.80 per contract = -400
• $0.90 per contract = -900

Trading on NFL Week 1

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Chiefs to win by more than 2.5 points: NO ($0.51)

The Chiefs completely dominated the Broncos from 2016-2022, winning all 14 games those years and had a 16-game winning streak against Denver. However, the Broncos snapped that streak in 2023 have gone 4-1 head-to-head since. The Broncos have won three straight against the Chiefs. The Broncos had the No. 4 scoring defense in the NFL last season, and although Mahomes will play, there could be some rust and potential limitations as he pushes his knee in game action for the first time since the injury. The model projects the Chiefs to fail to win by more than 2.5 points in 51% of simulations. Trade on the NFL at Kalshi here and get $25 in bonus trading credits after $25 of trades with the promo code CBSSPORTS:

Fewer than 43.5 total points scored ($0.50)

Kansas City's offense wasn't nearly as dominant last year, even before Mahomes' injury. The Chiefs finished 20th in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Travis Kelce is another year older; he turns 37 in October. Although Mahomes is cleared to return, there's no guarantee he'll be his former self in Week 1. Both teams could rely on their stout defenses. Denver ranked fourth in scoring defense at 18.5 ppg allowed, and Kansas City was fifth at 19.3 ppg allowed last season. Each of their last six head-to-head matchups failed to result in more than 43.5 total points scored. The model projects fewer than 43.5 total points scored in 62% of simulations. Trade on NFL Week 1 at Polymarket with the Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 trading bonus:

Responsible trading

Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.

Prediction market trading should be used for entertainment purposes in a fun, responsible manner. Trading is risky and involves a risk of loss; always trade responsibly.

Responsible Trading toolkits on prediction market platforms involve:

• Deposit Limits
• Session Time Limit
• Timeout
• Self-Exclusion
• Close Your Account
• Contact Helplines

Prediction market platforms offer Responsible Trading resources that can be found in your account settings after logging in or by request by contacting customer support. Concerned about your trading? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. 

Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.

Some markets on the Polymarket global site may not be available on the CFTC federally-regulated and licensed Polymarket U.S. app. Volume and pricing on the Polymarket U.S. app may differ from the Polymarket global site.