Best NFL prediction markets, apps, promos for Week 1: How, where to trade on Chiefs vs. Broncos, MNF

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both back and ready for Week 1, a statement that was far from a guarantee in January, and they lead the Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football tonight for what's sure to be one of the most popular trading options at prediction markets in the Week 1 NFL slate. Both Mahomes and Kelce have a huge fanbase, and although it's not quite at their level yet, Bo Nix is becoming a popular player as well. Star talent helps drive interest at prediction market apps, and no one quite has the star power of Kelce, who married Taylor Swift this summer. Kelce is priced at $0.30 per share to score a touchdown against the Broncos. Trade on the NFL with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS and get $25 in bonus trading credits after making $25 worth of trades here:

The Chiefs are trading at $0.56 per contract to win, while the Broncos are $0.44 at NFL prediction markets. Kansas City is trading at $0.50 per contract to win by 2.5 points or more, while the "No" on that outcome is priced at $0.51. More than 43.5 total points is priced at $0.51, while less than 43.5 total points is $0.50. Here's a closer look at the available top trading bonuses on some of the best prediction market promos, as well as the best prediction market sites available for Broncos vs. Chiefs with instructions on how to claim each offer and where to trade on Monday Night Football.

Here's a closer look at the available top trading bonuses on some of the top NFL prediction markets, as well as the best prediction market sites available for NFL Week 1, with instructions on how to claim each offer and where to trade on the NFL.

Where to trade on NFL Week 1

The Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS gives new users $25 in bonus trading credits after their first $25 in trades. The $25 bonus trading credits can be spread across multiple trades, such as on Kalshi NFL markets, and the bonus credits expire after seven days. 

The Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS gives users a $50 bonus for simply making a first-time deposit. Users get a $50 trading bonus with a $10 deposit, which is the minimum deposit for Polymarket US. Users can also use that on multiple trades, including but not limited to Polymarket NFL markets.

The Underdog promo code CBS gives new users a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds. The bonus funds are delivered within 72 hours of your first deposit. However, bonus funds can't be used on Underdog prediction markets, but they can be used on fantasy entries and DFS at Underdog. This promo isn't available in MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA.

Traders can take advantage of any of these promotions for NFL Week 1.

How prediction markets work

Prediction markets offer event contracts where users can purchase positions on a result at a given price (between $0.01 and $0.99). Each correct position pays out at $1.00 per contract. 

Contract prices are reflective of what the market predicts the win probability to be and are subject to change as money comes in. Below is a guide showing event contract prices along with their equivalent American odds:

Equivalent odds for NFL prediction market prices

• $0.10 per contract = +900
• $0.20 per contract = +400
• $0.30 per contract = +233
• $0.40 per contract = +150
• $0.50 per contract = +100
• $0.60 per contract = -150
• $0.70 per contract = -233
• $0.80 per contract = -400
• $0.90 per contract = -900

Week 1 NFL picks, predictions

Chiefs to win by more than 2.5 points: NO ($0.51)

The Broncos have won three straight against the Chiefs, and they are coming off having the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Denver has had one of the league's best defenses throughout the last few seasons. Last year, the Broncos ranked fourth in scoring defense and allowed the fewest yards per play (4.5). Patrick Mahomes is back, but after tearing his ACL and LCL in December and not playing at all in the preseason, rust could be a factor. The model projects the Chiefs to fail to win by more than 2.5 points in 51% of simulations. Trade on the NFL with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS and get $25 in bonus trading credits after making $25 worth of trades here:

Fewer than 43.5 total points scored ($0.50)

Each of the last six Chiefs vs. Broncos games totaled less than 43.5 points. While Mahomes and Travis Kelce garner much of the national attention, Kansas City's defense has been one of the sport's best over recent seasons as well, ranking in the top six in scoring defense in each of the last three seasons. Denver ranked fourth in scoring defense last year. The fewer than total hit in 13 of 17 games for Kansas City last season, and the model projects that trend to continue with fewer than 43.5 total points scored in 62% of simulations. Trade on NFL Week 1 at Underdog with the Underdog promo code CBS to get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds:

Responsible trading

Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.

Prediction market trading should be used for entertainment purposes in a fun, responsible manner. Trading is risky and involves a risk of loss; always trade responsibly.

Responsible Trading toolkits on prediction market platforms involve:

• Deposit Limits
• Session Time Limit
• Timeout
• Self-Exclusion
• Close Your Account
• Contact Helplines

Prediction market platforms offer Responsible Trading resources that can be found in your account settings after logging in or by request by contacting customer support. Concerned about your trading? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. 

Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.

Some markets on the Polymarket global site may not be available on the CFTC federally-regulated and licensed Polymarket U.S. app. Volume and pricing on the Polymarket U.S. app may differ from the Polymarket global site.