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Would much rather have this closer to a pick 'em in case the Texans' defense decides to let the Buccaneers storm back into the game -- and there's a good chance they could/would/will considering how Jameis Winston likes to play. Every game is a rollercoaster. I'm just looking for an enormous game from Deshaun Watson here against a bad Bucs pass defense that won't contain DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills. Missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I'm not sure Tampa Bay can keep up.
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The Bills have largely looked like the better team the last few weeks. They went into Dallas and beat the Cowboys. They went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. The Patriots struggled to put away the Bengals after losing back-to-back games. People think the Patriots won't be able to put away Buffalo. I'll take the Pats as a short home favorite any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Hit the under here: since 2017, when the Patriots are a favorite of less than seven points at home, the under is 9-1.
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The Rams got thumped by the Niners earlier in the year and this line doesn't exactly reflect that expectation. But the Niners should be in a prime bounceback spot here: after losing to Atlanta in heartbreaking fashion in a game where they were sitting a good portion of their defensive players, the Niners will likely bring everyone back on the field to try and cut loose on a critical game for seeding. The Rams really struggle with teams who can apply heavy pressure off the edge and the Niners can do just that.
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We are LOADING UP on the chalk this week apparently. Sorry, but I'm not buying the Jaguars ability to play hard, even against a bad defense like that of Atlanta. I would like to take this over, though -- 46 is too low a number for a pair of bad defenses like this playing on Atlanta's track. I think we see a big old pile of points from these teams. Give me the Falcons to pull away though. We might be due for another mammoth game from Julio Jones in this one.
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Feels like a bit of an overreaction here from last week: the Titans fell to the Texans while the Saints completely rolled the Colts on Monday Night Football. I would assume most people look at this line and think the Saints will cruise. But I'm not so sure: with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins gone, the Saints run defense isn't quite as stout. This line has moved a bunch and Tennessee is capable of throwing it in the second half if they need. But I think Derrick Henry could end up having another monster game after a down week against Houston.
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The Giants aren't a good team, but they did a heck of a job lighting up the scoreboard against the Dolphins in the second half last week. I think they can still score against Washington, but I fully expect this team to be emotionally exhausted from giving it everything for what could have been Eli Manning's final home game. They finally shut down Evan Engram so I think they're beginning to get a sense of how this season winds down. Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin are getting things going in the pass game and I can see a couple of deep shots against a very bad Giants secondary to give Washington a win.
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The Steelers stand out as a team who should win this game because it's against the lowly Jets who just got blasted last Thursday against the Ravens. But the Jets defense is actually not terrible, at least against the run, and I don't think Devlin Hodges can pass. Josh Allen actually made a little noise against Pittsburgh and that was on the road -- Sam Darnold's been good at home so far this year and maybe we get a little Le'Veon Bell revenge game here...
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Over the last few weeks/months, Joe Mixon has quietly been awesome. Since Week 10, he has 130 carries for 605 yards and 13 catches for 140 yards. That's a ton of yards from scrimmage. Only Christian McCaffrey has more (and only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry have more than 700 scrimmage yards in the same span). The Dolphins are just horrible at stopping the run and I could see Mixon having a monster game down in South Beach as the Bengals roll. The Dolphins shouldn't be favorites.
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There won't be many people projecting the Colts to emerge victorious against the Panthers after Monday night's debacle in New Orleans. But you know what's funny? Last year the Redskins got obliterated by the Saints in the Bayou as Drew Brees was breaking a record and proceeded to beat the Panthers the next week. Carolina can't stop anyone on the ground, and I'm feeling Marlon Mack finally bouncing back this week.
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BOY is this going to take a leap of faith. Fading the Ravens is dangerous, but would they really be a SIXTEEN-POINT FAVORITE against Cleveland at home? That's a ton of points for a team that hung a 40 burger on them earlier in the year. Here's the thing: if you can run the ball against Baltimore, you can keep things close. And this is just too many points for a divisional game. Nick Chubb can come out for another party with the way he's been playing.
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Let's see ... home loss to the Buccaneers? Check. Fans wearing paper bags to said home loss? Check. Fans with a "Sell the Team" sign in the stands? Check! Martha Ford giving a vote of confidence to Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn? Big old check. No one will want to back the Lions in this spot. But the Broncos can't be a 6.5-point favorite against anyone right now, not with Drew Lock under center.
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I know the Chargers got blasted into the sun against Minnesota on Sunday and it's a very good reason not to take them as a big favorite. But I can't get past what happened to the Raiders at the end of that game on Sunday against Jacksonville. In their final home game EVER in Oakland, against maybe the worst team in football, the Raiders coughed up a lockdown lead and egged on a Hail Mary. It's a brutal finish for the Raiders and I'm not sure they recover from it for a competitive effort against the Bolts.
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It would be preferable to get this at +3, but the Eagles probably shouldn't be underdogs in what should be a really close game. They're at a disadvantage in some key spots here for sure. But I'll take Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson over Dak Prescott and Jason Garrett all day (not individually, but in terms of the combo). The injuries to the Dallas linebackers should be a big concern too, especially with the Eagles operating out of a ton of 12 personnel, maxing out Zach Ertz/Dallas Goeddert and getting Miles Sanders going. Wentz just finds a way to get it done.
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This number is so big it's a little bit scary, but the Seahawks last week became just the second team in NFL history to win 10 games in a single season by one score or less. Given that they've only played 14 games, I will definitely bank on them not winning by multiple scores in this game as well, despite beating the Cardinals by several touchdowns previously. Kliff Kingsbury's a lot more comfortable coaching and making some smart decisions. Kyler Murray will play well enough to keep this close, even if it's not a shootout.
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I honestly don't think the Chiefs are going to try and blow out the Bears, because Andy Reid respects Matt Nagy and doesn't want to torch his old offensive coordinator. Maybe by Sunday night they'll know the Patriots won. But if the Texans won, the Chiefs will still be inclined to push and try to win. They're not going to take their foot off the gas and the defense is playing excellent football right now. KC would be my choice to win the Super Bowl right now. They know getting a bye could really help them out.
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SILENCE YE CRITICS WHO SAY KIRK COUSINS CAN'T WIN A BIG GAME. This is what I imagine Kirk Cousins saying in the photo to the left anyway. I think the Vikings put together a big game here, limit Aaron Rodgers and come away victorious by a touchdown plus. They know it's a must win to get in the playoffs and to have a shot at winning the division/securing a bye in the postseason. Plus the Packers might be frauds. But I didn't say that. As far as you know.
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