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This is a lot of points with a banged up Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews likely sitting. However, the Jets are just ... not good. They don't alter their offensive game plan for whoever they're playing and they'll need to run to beat the Ravens defense. They can't run. Le'Veon Bell has almost half as many rush yards as Jackson. The Jets are good against the run, but Baltimore can pass early (Marquise Brown could have a big day here) and then grind out a multi-touchdown victory in this spot. The Ravens know this win gives them 10 days to prep for the Browns on the road.
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How do you like the idea of David Blough winning someone a million dollars in daily fantasy? Because it could happen, especially with the Kenny Golladay stack. The Lions aren't a good football team, but they can stretch the field, even with Marvin Jones on IR. I think the Buccaneers will win, but four points is a bit much for a team that turns it over as much as Jameis Winston does. They had no business pushing/winning last week but they're a rollercoaster. I'll take the Lions to grind something out here.
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Can Bill Callahan maximize his rookies in this game? There could be a lot of wind, which should minimize the amount of passing that both teams can utilize, and that makes me a little nervous for the Dwayne Haskins-Terry McLaurin connection. But did you see Eli Manning and Darius Slayton hook up on Monday night? This Eagles secondary can be torched deep. I don't expect a ton of points (and might like the under 40, honestly) but I think the Redskins can get a deep shot or two and keep it within the number, maybe even winning outright.
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Matt Nagy is 2-1 ATS when playing the Packers since he arrived in Chicago, with his only against the spread loss coming this year when the Bears lost 10-3 at home in Week 1. Akiem Hicks is back for this game, which should improve the run defense and it looks like it should be COLD (15 degrees at kick??) and a little windy in Green Bay. Mitchell Trubisky isn't playing great, but he's improved a lot as the season has moved along. The Packers aren't blowing anyone out and they're not blowing out a team with a decent defense.
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Bill Belichick is angry and that's not good for anyone in Cincinnati. The Bengals have basically accused the Patriots of stealing their signals and they're "livid" but I don't think they have the personnel to deal with the Patriots. New England has run it better and you can run on Cincy. WILL SOMEONE REALIZE YOU CAN RUN OUTSIDE ON THE BENGALS? I think the Patriots will have what the Jets and Browns didn't because, well, coaching. The Bengals can't come back against this secondary, not with their weapons. Belichick on the road as a double-digit favorite is 6-1 against the spread since 2015. He's 13-9 as a touchdown fave in the same span.
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First things first: LOVE the over in this game. Should be good weather and both teams are missing a ton on defense, while being able to take some shots deep down the field. It's moving up (50 now) but it's worth taking up to 51 or 51.5 and could just cruise into the 60's. I don't like getting in the way of the Ryan Tannehill freight train, but I think too many people will assume the Titans are going to roll here while ignoring the secondary issues and Deshaun Watson's ability to bounce back in a big way after an ugly loss to the Broncos. Give me the Texans in a wild shootout.
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Carolina might have shut it down at this point, honestly. They didn't have any life against the Falcons, and they simply can't stop anyone on defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are sneakily in must-win territory with the Rams creeping on them. Russell Wilson has thrown an interception in four straight games. The last time he did that was 2016 and he followed up that four-game stretch with a 350-yard, four-touchdown explosion against Arizona. This could be a big spot for Russ, who is 3-1 in his career in Carolina. The Seahawks are 9-3-1 against the spread in 1 p.m. ET games since 2015.
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Tough spot for Drew Lock here ... the Broncos aren't going to lob up 30 points in the first half against a Chiefs defense that's better than people think. However, I just don't see this being a shootout. In fact, I LOVE the under, and would recommend you get it in early because I bet it drops. Sunday should be cold, cloudy and with some light wind, so nothing crazy. But Clete Blakeman is calling the game and only has one game that's gone over this season. Additionally, in games with Andy Reid coaching in December as a 10-point favorite in K.C., the under is 4-1. This is the second-highest under we've seen since Reid got there and there are two good defenses playing.
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Taking the Giants here disgusts me, because they're a terrible football team. But there are a couple of key factors in play. One is the weather, which looks like it could feature a ton of wind. If DeVante Parker doesn't play this week, it's begging for a couple Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions, even against a horrific Giants secondary. Two, this is going to be the Saquon Barkley breakout game everyone has been waiting for. Pat Shurmur will feed the second-year back against a Dolphins run defense that isn't working very well.
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Every narrative runs counter to the Jaguars pick here. The Jaguars have quit. The Raiders are a decent team. The Raiders are playing their final game in Oakland, probably ever. The Jaguars stink on the west coast. None of that is false and it scares me to back a team that hasn't been within 17 points (!?!) in its last five games. But it's too obvious and the line is just a little too fishy for me. Plus I've got to roll with the Derrick Henry Corollary here: teams are 1-7 straight up the week after giving up 100 yards to Henry. The Raiders just got gashed and they could lose this game, which would be a ROUGH L to take.
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Toughest game to pick on the slate. How can you trust the Browns as road favorites? You really can't. But you might have to here, with the Cardinals struggling against everyone but the absolute worst defenses so far this year. Kyler Murray is awesome and I think Baker Mayfield's getting a bad rap this year. I also think Mayfield will be motivated against Kyler (who is his friend, but a fellow former Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick). David Njoku is a big-time sleeper this week and I would expect Jarvis Landry to eat as well, with Patrick Peterson shadowing Odell Beckham. The Browns feast on bad defenses and the Cardinals are not good on defense.
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I'm not falling for that throttling of the Jaguars by the Chargers. This is not a good team. They beat the Colts in overtime, beat the Dolphins, snuck past the Bears, caught a hungover Packers team and throttled the Jags. Minnesota is coming off a casual win over the Lions and the Vikings know how important this win is for keeping up with Green Bay. They should be focused and can light up a bad defense. Philip Rivers against a good pass rush isn't going to go well. Kirk Cousins could have a big game here.
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Terrified to back the Falcons here because of how bad Atlanta can be against an elite pass rush, and the 49ers definitely have an elite pass rush. But the 49ers secondary is badly banged up right now and they're coming off an emotional two-game road trip. I think they let their guard down a little bit and, even without Calvin Ridley, we see the Falcons and Matt Ryan manage to put some points and keep this game close enough to cover.
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This game stinks so freaking loud. The Cowboys were going to be -4 but now they're +1 because Dallas lost on the road to the Bears and the Rams won at home against the Seahawks? That's too wild of a swing. Los Angeles is good against bad defenses and bad against good defenses and the Cowboys defense isn't that good. Dallas has struggled to produce against teams with a winning record. But I can't just fall in line with the Cowboys completely falling flat on their face at home in a huge game, not with 10 days rest and the elite weapons they have on offense.
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Everyone is going to want to back Buffalo, a team that is probably better than the Steelers. But I don't see the Bills moving the ball on Pittsburgh at home in primetime. The Steelers will come to PLAY in this game and they can get the job done against a Bills team that is very good, but also susceptible to the run. Pittsburgh won't want to pass here. I expect very few points and would back the under for sure, but lean towards the Steelers at home. Mike Tomlin's prime time record as a short favorite is surprisingly good against the spread.
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Can't get away from the idea of the Saints coming out angry and just bludgeoning the Colts in this game. Indy is so short on both sides of the ball right now and the Saints need a get right spot after losing to the 49ers. I think Drew Brees goes ENORMOUS in this game, winging the ball all over the place. I would caution anyone who thinks Indy won't score though -- Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport are out for the year according to reports, so this could end up in a shootout.
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