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Bills quarterback Josh Allen has fallen off in the MVP race over the last two weeks, throwing four interceptions during that stretch. Allen will try to get back on track when the Bills face the Steelers on the road on Sunday afternoon during the Week 13 NFL schedule. He has an over/under of 32.5 pass attempts in the Week 13 NFL odds, and SportsLine's proven computer model is backing the Under with its NFL quarterback best bets. The model has also revealed picks for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three quarterback betting picks for NFL Week 13 (odds subject to change): 

  • Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 247.5 passing yards
  • Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: Under 20.5 completions 
  • Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Under 32.5 pass attempts

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +451 (risk $100 to win $451).

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 247.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Stafford has emerged as the clear MVP favorite through the first 12 weeks of the season, leading the top team in the NFC. The veteran ranks fifth in the NFL with 2,830 passing yards, averaging 257.3 yards per game. He completed 25 of 35 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Tampa Bay last week, going over 270 yards for the third time in his last four games. Stafford is facing a mediocre Panthers pass defense on Sunday afternoon, so the model has him finishing with 259 passing yards to clear this total. 

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: Under 20.5 completions (-140, FanDuel)

Indianapolis' coaching staff was heavily criticized for not utilizing star running back Jonathan Taylor enough at the end of its overtime loss to Kansas City last week, as Taylor has been the top rusher in the league this season. Jones has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, completing fewer than 20 passes in his last two outings. He is facing a Texans defense that ranks third in the NFL against the pass and first in total yards allowed per game. Jones is finishing with 18 completions in the model's simulations, creating value on the Under.    

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Under 32.5 pass attempts (-140, FanDuel)

Allen has been struggling with ball security in recent weeks, racking up five interceptions in his last three games. The Bills have an outstanding rushing attack to fall back on, so there is no need to force the issue against Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Allen has attempted fewer than 32 passes in eight of his last 10 games. Pittsburgh plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the NFL, limiting the overall possessions in this matchup, which is one reason why the model has Allen throwing 30 passes on Sunday.