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The NFL playoffs are rapidly approaching, and star quarterbacks are starting to separate themselves from other signal callers in the league. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has taken a huge step forward this year, completing 71.9% of passes for 2,836 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is facing Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon during the Week 12 NFL schedule, and his over/under for passing yards is 250.5. SportsLine's proven computer model is backing the Over with its NFL quarterback picks, and it has also revealed picks for Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 on a 48-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three quarterback betting picks for NFL Week 12 (odds subject to change): 

  • Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 271.5 passing yards
  • Drake Maye, New England Patriots: Over 250.5 passing yards
  • Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Under 33.5 pass attempts

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +578 (risk $100 to win $578).

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 271.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Kansas City is coming off consecutive losses to Buffalo and Denver, falling to 5-5 overall this season. Mahomes had 250 passing yards against the Bills before narrowly going over this total with 276 yards against the Broncos. He is averaging 262.5 passing yards per game this season, and he is facing a Colts defense that had an extra week to prepare due to a Week 11 bye. Indianapolis has held three straight quarterbacks under this total, and SportsLine's proven computer model has Mahomes finishing with 262 yards in its simulations for this matchup. 

Drake Maye, New England Patriots: Over 250.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Maye's progression has been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season, racking up 2,836 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions as an MVP contender. He has thrown for at least 255 yards in four straight games and six of his last seven outings, including 281 yards against the Jets last week. The 23-year-old is averaging 257.8 passing yards per game, and he is facing a Bengals pass defense that is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (257.3) this season. He is finishing with 272 yards in the model's latest simulations, creating plenty of cushion.    

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Under 33.5 pass attempts (-108, FanDuel)

Stafford has gone Under this number in four of his last five games, finishing with 28 pass attempts against Seattle last week. The veteran has been the most efficient signal caller in the league, racking up 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season. Neither the Rams nor the Buccaneers play at a particularly fast pace, with both teams ranking outside the top 10 in plays per game. This will limit the number of overall possessions, and that is one reason why the model has Stafford finishing with 32 pass attempts on Sunday night.