Week 12 NFL picks: FanDuel Sportsbook parlay with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnell Mooney, DeVonta Smith pays 7-1

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a truly historic season and Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record (1,964) is in sight. Smith-Njigba has piled up 1,146 yards over his first 10 games, which puts him on a 17-game pace for 1,948 receiving yards. However, perhaps even more impressive than the total has been the consistency, as Smith-Njigba has finished with at least 93 yards in nine of 10 games and 79 yards or more in every contest this season.

On Sunday, the Seahawks will take on the Tennessee Titans and the latest NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list his over/under at 93.5 receiving yards against the league's worst team. That's why the SportsLine Projection Model is recommending Over 93.5 yards for Smith-Njigba as part of its NFL wide receiver parlay on FanDuel this week.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 on a 48-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three quarterback betting picks for NFL Week 12 (odds subject to change): 

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks, Over 93.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Darnell Mooney, Falcons, Under 3.5 receptions (+128)
• DeVonta Smith, Eagles, Over 55.5 receiving yards (-114)

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +703 (risk $100 to win $703).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks, Over 93.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

The former first-round pick caught 100 passes for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns last season to establish himself as one of the future stars at the position. However, with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett departing this offseason, he's looked like the most dominant wide receiver in the league. In addition to leading the NFL in receiving yards, he also leads in target share (37.2%), target rate (36.7%) and air yards share (49.2%). Game script is probably driving this total down with Seattle favored by 13.5, but the model predicts that Smith-Njigba still finishes with 104 receiving yards on average.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons, Under 3.5 receptions (+128, FanDuel)

Kirk Cousins is a four-time Pro Bowler and he's only a couple of seasons removed from a nine-figure contract, but he hasn't meshed in Atlanta and ultimately lost the starting job last season. The Atlanta passing offense was already pretty middle-of-the-road, but with Michael Penix Jr. (knee) out for the rest of the year and Cousins back installed as the starter, there isn't a lot of reason for optimism. Mooney has only reached four receptions once in seven games and this line assumes that his rapport with Cousins will help his cause. However, feeding Drake London, Bijan Robinson and even Kyle Pitts should be a higher priority for the veteran quarterback. The model predicts 3.0 receptions on average for Mooney.

DeVonta Smith, Eagles, Over 55.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

The squeaky wheel got the grease last week with A.J. Brown receiving 11 targets after not-so-cryptic complaints on social media about his involvement in the offense. That led to Smith only being targeted five times and finishing with one catch in a defensive slugfest between the Lions and Eagles. However, Smith has been the more productive receiver this season and he had 31 catches for 499 yards and two touchdowns over his previous five games while putting up at least 69 yards in four of those five contests. The model predicts 66 yards on average for Smith.