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Though the days of Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce dominating weekly stat lines have passed, the NFL has seen some revitalization at tight end in recent years with high drafts picks like Tyler Warren, Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid entering the league. Bowers played on Thursday in Week 10, but Warren and Kincaid are both in action on Sunday afternoon, alongside big veteran names like George Kittle, Zach Ertz and Mark Andrew. Kittle has one of the week's highest receiving yards line for a tight end at 50.5, and SportsLine's model is projecting that he falls well short of that line in its tight end bets for Week 10.  

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 10 on a sizzling 47-29 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three wide receiver betting picks for NFL Week 10 (odds subject to change): 

  • Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 receiving yards 
  • George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Under 50.5 receiving yards 
  • Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: Over 42.5 receiving yards

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +561 (risk $100 to win $561).

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

The Lions are 8-point favorites against the struggling Commanders, who won't have Jayden Daniel (elbow) for this one. While it's a favorable matchup in some senses for LaPorta and the passing attack, there's also the strong possibility that Detroit is playing from ahead and takes the air out of the football in the second half. LaPorta, in fact, has gone Under his receiving line in four of the past seven Detroit games when playing against a team with a losing record. SportsLine's model is projecting him to have 42 yards on Sunday. 

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Under 50.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

Kittle has fallen short of his receiving line in five straight games, and the model is projecting that trend to continue in a difficult matchup against the Rams on Sunday. Los Angeles is giving up an average of just 41.5 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the fifth-best mark in the league. SportsLine's model has Kittle at just 45 yards of receiving in this matchup.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: Over 42.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

Kincaid, meanwhile, has been trending the other direction with six Overs in his last 10 games on his receiving line. He's had a pair of 100-yard games over the past three weeks, so he has potential to smash this line. It might be wise to consider some higher alternate lines as well, but SportsLine's model is very comfortable with Kincaid clearing 42.5 yards against the Dolphins, projecting him to have 53 yards.