Ravens snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with a series of big mistakes in big spots against Bills

With 7 minutes and 27 seconds remaining in their Sunday night classic against the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens had a 98.7% chance of winning the game, according to ESPN's live win probability tracker. And yet, the Ravens -- as they have done seemingly countless times in recent seasons -- found a way to lose the game anyway. It was the eighth time since the 2021 season that they've lost a game where they at one point had at least a 90% win probability, three more than the next-closest team.

The loss was incredible (in the bad way) for more than just that reason. For example, according to CBS Sports research:

• The Ravens led by 15 points with under five minutes remaining in the game. NFL teams had won 717 consecutive games when winning by 15+ points with five or fewer minutes remaining in regular. The last time a team lost such a game was in 2017.
• It was the first time in NFL history that a team lost in regulation when winning by 15+ points in the final four minutes. 
• The Ravens allowed Josh Allen to throw for 251 yards and total three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone. He's the only quarterback in the last 35 seasons with 250+ total yards and 3+ total touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a win.
• The Ravens became the first team in NFL history to lose a game where they had 40+ points and 235+ rushing yards. Teams are now 277-1 in that situation, according to the Associated Press.
• The Ravens averaged 8.6 yards per play and still lost the game. It was the first time a team averaged 8.5+ yards per play and still lost since the Ravens did so themselves in 2022, via The Athletic.
• Lamar Jackson now has more losses with a 7+ point fourth quarter lead (9) in his career than Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts combined (8)
• John Harbaugh has the most losses with a 10+ point second-half lead (17) by any head coach in at least the last 35 seasons, according to the AP.

It was a game filled with crucial mistakes for the Ravens, even while they looked electric in hanging 40 points on the Bills' defense.

Early in the game, rookie safety Malaki Starks got both hands on a potential interception but couldn't come away with the ball. (It appeared to be tipped by Khalil Shakir, but he did get both hands on it.) Later, Chidobe Awuzie definitely dropped what should have been a diving interception along the right sideline. Again, the ball hit him in both hands.

The defensive backfield made a couple of other mistakes, most notably Jaire Alexander's pass interference against Joshua Palmer on a fourth down midway through the third quarter. That set the Bills up at the 4-yard line and led to a touchdown two plays later. Alexander also tripped up Keon Coleman on a late-game completion instead of allowing him to score so the Ravens could get the ball back, and that led to the game-winning field goal with no time remaining.

Late in the second quarter, the Bills got the ball back with 25 seconds left and no timeouts in their quiver. And yet, the Ravens allowed Allen to complete consecutive passes to get into range for a Matt Prater field goal. 

Without that sequence, the Ravens are up by five points at the end of the game rather than two, and the Bills need to score a touchdown rather than a field goal in order to complete their comeback. 

After Derrick Henry's 46-yard touchdown to put the Ravens back up by two scores early in the fourth quarter, rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed the extra point. That would've put the Ravens up by 16 points rather than 15, and if he'd made it, they obviously would've been leading by three instead of two late in the game and the Bills' game-winning field goal would've instead sent the game to overtime. 

Minutes later, Ravens linebacker Trenton Simpson tried to down a punt at the goal line, only he slid to cover the ball rather than either standing and downing it or tapping it backwards to a teammate. His glove went about a centimeter over the goal line, so the Bills got the ball at their own 20 rather than inside the 1. They quickly marched 80 yards down the field for a touchdown. 

On the ensuing drive, Henry -- who had been having an absolute monster game 171 yards and two touchdowns on the ground -- committed a rare fumble while being tackled by Ed Oliver in the backfield. 

It was only the 21st fumble of Henry's career on his 2,548 career touches. That means he had a fumble rate of less than 1% for his career, and yet he coughed it up at just about the worst possible time. Of course, that miscue immediately led to a Bills touchdown, albeit one where they missed the two-point conversion. 

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John Breech

Leading by two points on the following possession, the Ravens faced a fourth-and-3 from their own 38-yard line. Rather than go for it and trust his two best players to pick up three yards, John Harbaugh chose to punt the ball away and trust his defense, which had allowed three touchdowns on four fourth-quarter possessions, including back-to-back scores in the last few minutes. 

Jackson would say after the game that he was cramping ahead of fourth down or he would've pushed to go for it, but Harbaugh himself said that he was probably going to punt anyway. "I did think about going for it. Fourth-and-3, if you don't get it, they're in field-goal range," he said, via Ravens Vault. "I think punting is what most people do there."

Just because it's what most people do, doesn't make it the right decision. The Ravens played not to lose rather than trying to win the game, and it came back to bite them. Harbaugh could've elected to call a timeout to get Jackson through his momentary cramps and then go for it. He also could've recognized that going for it and giving the Bills the ball in field-goal range, but while the Ravens were armed with all their timeouts, could've allowed them to get the ball back with more time on the clock than what actually happened, which is that the Ravens didn't get to touch the ball at all. 

This isn't even an exhaustive list of everything the Ravens messed up in the game. It's just the more notable mistakes that led to them, once again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in a game they seemingly had wrapped up in a bow.