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Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season started with an upset with by the Giants over the Eagles on Thursday night and another underdog won Monday with the Falcons dropping the Bills. However, favorites were generally successful on Sunday with the Packers and Steelers both winning off the bye week. Will favorites continue to roll in Week 7 or can more underdogs get wins?

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 7 NFL games, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He's going with two parlays for Week 7, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 7 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL moneyline favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL moneyline favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning 9 of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate. In Week 4, favorites struggled on a relative basis, going 10-5-1. Two weeks ago, NFL betting favorites had its worst week this season going 8-5. In Week 6, NFL betting chalk bounced back by winning 11 of 15 games.

NFL betting favorites have won 63 out of 92 games through the first six weeks of the 2025 season, resulting in an overall success rate of 68.4%. That number is currently below the 71.8% mark from last year. What does it mean for Week 7? Will underdogs bounce back?

Cleveland Browns over Miami Dolphins

Let's not overthink this matchup. I was skeptical about the Dolphins heading into this season, and nothing I've seen so far indicates they are prepared to succeed against the Browns' defense in the Dawg Pound.

Cleveland's defense ranks third in the NFL, allowing just 262.3 yards per game, while Miami's stop unit ranks 30th, averaging 389.3 yards allowed per game. Myles Garrett recorded two sacks when these teams faced off in Florida last year. However, both starting quarterbacks were different, making that game irrelevant to the current matchup. Garrett has not recorded a sack in his last three games and will be looking to capitalize against a subpar offensive line. Watch for his anytime sack line if it's available at a reasonable price (+140 or higher).

Cleveland's rushing defense is ranked third, conceding only 79.7 yards per game, while Miami yields 168.5 yards on the ground (32nd). At home, the Browns will lean further into early-down runs to wear down Miami's front and control the clock. I don't care whether it's Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders; whichever quarterback finishes this game should find success in this spot.

Los Angeles Chargers over Indianapolis Colts

The Chargers host the Colts at SoFi Stadium in what could be a critical AFC clash between two division leaders. The Colts will be playing their second consecutive road game in Los Angeles after two straight home tilts. They are currently ranked fourth in net yards per play, while facing the 29th hardest schedule. In contrast, the Chargers are ranked 10th in NYPP while playing against the 17th hardest slate.

Jonathan Taylor is the Colts' most dangerous offensive weapon. He leads the NFL with 603 rushing yards through six games, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring seven rushing touchdowns. However, the Chargers' rushing defense—while struggling recently—has shown it can rise to the occasion. The key to stopping the Colts is to contain Taylor and the running game. The Chargers' brilliant coaching staff knows Indianapolis cannot run wild if they want to win this game. Daniel Jones will have difficulty throwing against the Chargers, who rank second in opponent passer rating (73.7). It should be an entertaining matchup to watch.

Although Los Angeles has struggled without Khalil Mack (elbow injury since Week 2), the unit ranks ninth in overall defensive rankings. With Mack potentially eligible to return after opening his 21-day practice window, the Chargers could see a significant boost to their pass rush at the perfect time. The Colts have scored 71 points in their last two games and now hit the road. This is a strong system play that supports the home team. Justin Herbert should have a lot of success passing and running the ball. Play the hosts.

Denver Broncos over New York Giants

This will be a significant test for Jaxson Dart and the Giants, who will face an elite defense at a high altitude following a big win against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Giants will have a quick rematch against Philadelphia next week.

Denver's defense has been historic through Week 6. It leads the NFL with 30 sacks—ten more than any other team—and ranks second in both total defense (4.3 yards allowed per play) and scoring defense (15.8 points allowed per game).

New York's offense has significantly improved, and its season-long statistics are somewhat skewed due to Russell Wilson's play early in the season and the absence of Andrew Thomas at tackle.

During their current six-game home winning streak, the Broncos have allowed just 12.8 points per game and outscored opponents by nearly 20 points each contest. Based on simulations, I believe the home team will win, with a probability of over 85%. However, I would not be surprised if the Giants remain within one possession due to a backdoor cover.

Week 7 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A very popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Tennessee Titans over New England Patriots

I know we are on the Titans again. Don't turn away. Please hear me out. Following Brian Callahan's termination last week, Mike McCoy has been appointed as the interim head coach for Tennessee. McCoy's first challenge is competing against Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, who led Tennessee from 2018-23 before moving to the Northeast. This emotional subplot should fire up a buy-in from players and fanbase alike, turning Nissan Stadium into a potential hostile environment for Vrabel's new squad. In terms of matchups, there is an excellent opportunity for an upset.

New England's pass defense has yielded 239.0 yards per game (25th-ranked), allowing a 69.4% completion rate. Tennessee counters with rookie QB Cam Ward's play-action mastery and WR Calvin Ridley, who leads the team with 290 receiving yards. On the flip side, the Titans' pass defense is ranked 13th, allowing only 209.7 yards per game. Tennessee has played the eight-hardest schedule, while New England has played the second easiest through six weeks.

The Titans have a massive special teams edge. Tennessee ranks first in net punting (45.3 yards) this season. New England's coverage unit surrenders a 24.1-yard kick-return average (29th) and has given up multiple return TDs this season. Consistently flipping field position enables the Titans to start their drives from beyond the 35-yard line.

New England sits dead last (32nd) in EPA per rush and 29th in yards per carry, with both running backs grading among Pro Football Focus's bottom five this season. The Patriots are uncertain about how the new head coach plans to attack them offensively and what adjustments the Titans might make defensively. It's a guessing game for the road team as big chalk. Throw in a 50% chance of light rain, and we have all the ingredients for an upset that nobody saw coming except for yours truly.

Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles

Minnesota's defense leads the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed at –0.20, anchored by the league's top pass defense at –0.42 EPA per pass play. Its front seven generates pressure on 36.6% of dropbacks, ranking 11th, and allows fewer than 160 passing yards per game. This seems like a terrific matchup for the Vikings. The Eagles' offense has struggled significantly because opposing teams have figured out their play strategy. Philadelphia ranks 22nd in EPA per pass play, and Jalen Hurts' unit has been held to 17 points in each of its last two losses. The Super Bowl hangover has been in full effect.

The betting market is giving too much respect to Philadelphia's Super Bowl pedigree and 4-2 record while undervaluing Minnesota's defensive improvements and home-field advantages. With the Vikings getting 2.5 points at home and +125 to win straight up against a struggling Eagles offense, this line presents clear value. The Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played the Giants last Thursday and playing them again in Week 8.

Every team will be fired up to play the defending Super Bowl champions. Minnesota has a strong home-field advantage, ranking in the top five. Kevin O'Connell has won two of three after a bye week, with the only loss by two points against Detroit last year in Minnesota. Giving offensive-minded head coaches two weeks to prepare is typically an advantage not accounted for in the line. I made this line Philadelphia -1 with a healthy J.J. McCarthy under center. Love the home team at plus money.

Houston Texans over Seattle Seahawks

Despite entering as +155 underdogs, the Texans' elite pass rush and top-five defense, combined with Seattle's offensive line vulnerabilities and key injuries, create the perfect recipe for an upset on Monday Night Football. Also, the schedule makers did the Seahawks no favors through Week 6 by alternating home and away games from the beginning of the season.

The Seahawks are favored for a reason. Seattle owns a clear advantage in offensive efficiency, generating more yards per play and converting third downs and red-zone trips at a higher rate. Its special teams and run defense are both top-five units. The Texans' strong pass defense and proficient third-down stops keep them competitive, and they have two weeks to prepare against a fatigued team playing in its seventh consecutive week.

Houston's defense currently ranks fourth in defensive DVOA, allowing only 12.2 points per game, the lowest in the league, over the first six weeks. The Texans have a strong pass rush, ranking third in pass-rush win rate by generating pressure on 29% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, Seattle's offensive line is struggling, sitting at the bottom with a pass-block win rate of just 51%, which leaves them vulnerable to stunts and blitzes.

Seattle is just 1–2 this season at Lumen Field with a blowout win over New Orleans. Seattle's injury report lists multiple defensive linemen as out or questionable, including a starting end and both starting tackles. While these absences weaken Seattle's pass rush, they also limit rotation against Houston's rushing attack, creating fewer favorable matchups to slow down C.J. Stroud and company. The Texans are currently at league average in rushing yards, but show increased production following a bye week. This is an excellent price for the underdog in this spot.