NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football betting guide: Best bets for Falcons vs. Bills, Commanders vs. Bears

Week 6 of the NFL season ends with another Monday Night Football doubleheader! And this one is a doozy, with the Falcons hosting the Bills and then the Commanders hosting the Bears. Both games have ridiculously high totals, each lined around 50, so we should expect plenty of fireworks on this loaded slate.

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The weekend betting guide was a success, hitting over .500 on our ATS picks and player props, so let's try and roll that cash into some Monday night winnings as well.

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Bills at Falcons Under 50

Betting on an Under on Monday night is no fun, particularly when the two teams involved are loaded with talent like the ones we get in the opening Monday matchup of Week 6. But this line feels too high for what these teams want to do and how their defenses play. Ed Oliver should be back for the Bills and put up a not-so-cryptic Instagram post indicating he was prepared to wreck shop this week. 

The Bills are explosive in the passing game; it's what happens when you have Josh Allen under center. But the Bills love to run the ball, and as a 4.5-point favorite on the road, I would expect them to do that as much as possible on Monday night. If the Bills get a lead, they are more than willing to pound the football and win without blowing teams out this year. They're clearly emphasizing victories over style points this season, knowing how the AFC is set up at this point with all the injuries and flat-lined teams at the top of the conference. 

Atlanta is in theory also explosive in the passing game, although it largely hasn't shown itself to be the case so far this year. They had one Drake London blowup game and Bijan Robinson is a nightmare to cover in space when Michael Penix gets him the ball, but I think they'd love to pound the football and keep it out of Josh Allen's hands if they can. 

Both defenses are generally good and I think we could see a lot more running than folks expect in this opening salvo, leading to much fewer points.   

Bears +5.5 at Commanders 

This feels like stepping in front of a dangerously fast-moving truck because not only are we betting against Jayden Daniels, but we're fading the conensensus pick at home, a week after the Commanders absolutely throttled the Chargers on the road. But I like living dangerously, so here we are! 

This line moved towards the Bears throughout the week but has drifted back towards the Commanders. I get it -- Washington looks like it might be a physical run team with the potential to play up on defense, they're at home, Daniels is a difference-maker when he's on the field and we don't know if the Bears can stop anyone.

But Chicago's played well this season on offense and Caleb Williams started to find his groove before the Week 5 bye. I'm going to trust that the week off gave the Bears time to game plan for this matchup of the top two picks from the 2024 NFL Draft and, more importantly, for Ben Johnson to assess the first four weeks of the season and get more comfortable with what he's doing. 

This game feels like the one more likely to become a shootout and if last year's Chicago team can force Daniels to hit a ridiculous Hail Mary to beat them, I trust this Chicago team to keep it close in a high-scoring game where I'd prefer to be holding the points at the end of the game.

Monday Night Football player props

D.J. Moore Over 3.5 receptions

Moore's kind of fallen off the radar this season thanks to the emergence of Rome Odunze, and it's presenting some value in terms of his receptions prop. This number is a little juicy, but this is a homecoming for the former Maryland Terrapin and I think there's a real opportunity to buy low on someone we believed was the top option in this passing game prior to the season. 

The biggest concern here is if Moore gets rushes out of the backfield instead of targets, which has burnt backers of Moore already this season. But we're talking a low number of just 3.5 here and I think it's perfectly reasonable he clears this, especially with Chicago a pretty hefty dog and likely to pass in the second half if the point spread and total are indeed accurate 

Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 receptions

Robinson has only cleared this number in two out of four games this year, but the targets have been there for him to get at least five catches in every single game, with Michael Penix throwing at his all-world back plenty this season. If the Falcons want to win this game, they need to get Penix in a good rhythm early, keep the Buffalo pressure off of the second-year quarterback and be able to win in the passing game as well as the running game. 

Utilizing Robinson's skill set is the best way of doing that and I'd expect he's the focal point of the offense against a Bills team that should be soft over the middle with Matt Milano still out for this game. If the Falcons pepper Robinson early and often and force Buffalo to stay on its heels. they'll have a real chance in this one. 

We're also getting plus money on a number Robinson's gotten to half the time this season, which I certainly like. 

Anytime touchdown picks

Rome Odunze anytime TD

A perfectly fair price for Chicago's No. 1 receiver, a player who has turned into the top option for Caleb Williams in his second year. Odunze looks like the out-of-the-box Pro Bowl receiver Chicago drafted in the first round once he actually got some playing time and has been electric in the passing game for Johnson so far this season. I don't see any reason that stops in a likely shootout on Monday night.  

Jackson Hawes anytime TD

Our weekly longshot stab at an anytime touchdown scorer, Hawes is seeing tons of time on the field because of his blocking skillset. And with Dalton Kincaid banged up, it's perfectly possible he ends up getting even more run, especially if the Bills are looking to pound the football against Atlanta. 

We've seen Hawes score already this season in prime time with the Bills scheming up stuff specifically for the rookie. I wouldn't be surprised if the run-heavy Buffalo offense designed something else to get him in the end zone here and at this price, how can you not dabble a little?