Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season, which is always my favorite week because it's when I finally come to grips with the fact that my Fantasy team is absolutely horrible. 

I only do four leagues every year and the one where I ALWAYS do the worst is my work league here at CBS Sports. I always get the worst draft slot and I always end up with the worst team and even if my team is somehow good, it doesn't. matter, because everyone is eventually going to get injured. 

For instance, I have Saquon Barkley on my team this year, and he's already injured. In 2024, I had Christian McCaffrey. Last season, I had Brock Purdy. If I draft a player in my fantasy league, there's an 89% chance he's going to get hurt. If any NFL players are reading, I will accept money next year NOT to draft you. That way, you don't have to worry about getting injured. I'm a walking jinx. 

By the way, if anyone in my league is reading, Barkley is officially on the trade block and I will take anything for him. I'm thinking Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson for Barkley straight up. Please let me know if you're interested. 

Anyway, the only thing I'm interested in right now is getting to the Week 5 picks, so let's do it. 

Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here, but you don't need to click over this week, because we have more important things to go over right now, like why you should sign up for the Pick Six newsletter that we have here at CBSSports.com. 

Based on my unscientific research, I've found that roughly 52.3% of the people who read this picks column wish they could get an email from me twice a week. Well, YOU CAN. I write the Pick Six NFL newsletter here at CBS Sports and it comes out twice a week (Monday and Thursday). If you want it sent to your inbox, all you have to do is click here and subscribe. Once you sign up, you'll immediately start getting the newsletter where I'll be touching on every NFL-related topic I can think of and even ones that I can't think of. If you're wondering how that's possible, you'll have to subscribe to find out. 

Alright, I'm going to stop talking so we can get to the picks. 

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

NFL Week 5 picks

Raiders (3-1) at Patriots (2-2)

After watching Drake Maye play over the past four weeks, I feel like I can pretty confidently say that this game is going to go one of two ways for him: Either he's going to turn the ball over seven times and the Patriots are going to lose by 21 points or he's going to throw for 278 yards and three touchdowns in a wild win that no one saw coming. There is no in-between. 

Maye is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. I can't figure him out, you can't figure him out, Mike Vrabel can't figure him out. No one can figure him out. One week, he might show up and play like Tom Brady. Another week, he might show up and go full Ryan Leaf. 

It can't be easy for Josh McDaniels to create an offensive game plan when he doesn't know which Maye is going to show up. 

The good news for the Patriots is that it might not matter this week because they shouldn't have to TOTALLY lean on Maye against the Raiders' defense. The Raiders are 3-1, but if they've had one issue on defense this year, it's that they haven't been able to stop the run. They did hold the Dolphins to just 74 yards on the ground in Week 1, but that came against the Dolphins, so I'm not going to count that. 

In the three games since then, they've given up an average of 154.7 yards per game, which is the most in the NFL over the past three weeks. The only other defense that's given up at least 150 yards per game in that span is the Packers, and if you've watched the Packers play defense at all this season, you know that being compared to them is not a good thing. 

And we haven't even gotten to the ugly part for the Raiders. The ugly part is that they're giving up 5.2 yards per carry. The Raiders' pass-rush has looked fantastic this season -- the Vegas defense has registered at least two sacks in each game this year -- but if the Patriots run the ball on every play, then they won't have to worry about the pass-rush. 

This feels like a game where Maye will be asked ot throw 20 or 25 passes and then McDaniels is going to let his two running backs (Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson) do the rest. 

The Raiders are definitely a good team, but I just don't like this spot for them: They're coming off a tough loss to a division rival, and now, they have to fly all the way across the country. Also, the Raiders beat Mike Vrabel in his first game ever as the Patriots' coach last season, and he seems like the kind of guy who would hold a grudge over that. 

PICK: Patriots 27-24 over Raiders (+3.5)

Bears (3-1) at Packers (2-2)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

I don't think it's mathematically possible to be eliminated from the division race after just five weeks, but if the Packers lose here, I'm writing them off. And yes, if they lose here and then somehow end up winning the division, I definitely expect you to send this to that Old Takes Exposed guy so he can make fun of me.

The Packers are sitting at just 2-2, even though they were gifted one of the easiest QB slates to start the season. Here's who Green Bay has faced so far: 

Week 1: Carson Wentz/Kyler Murray (Murray got knocked out of the game in the first quarter)
Week 2: Geno Smith
Week 3: Michael Penix Jr. (He was making his first start in nine months)
Week 4: Jalon Daniels (He's an undrafted rookie who was making his first career start

If the Bears were playing this schedule, they would have put up 65 points on the Jets in Week 2 while starting their fourth-string QB, because that's what the Bears do, but that's not what the Packers do. Green Bay is 2-2, and the scary part is that the Packers are about three plays away from being 0-4. Both of their wins came by exactly three points. 

So why have the Packers been struggling? Someone could probably write a book on this, but I don't have time for that, so I'll try to do the quick summary: Their offensive line is a mess, they can't run the ball and Jordan Love hasn't looked great, but that's not completely his fault because he usually only has roughly 0.7 seconds to throw, because, again, the offensive line is a mess. 

If the Packers could run the ball, that would help fix a lot of their problems, so let's check in to see how their rushing attack is doing this year. 

Oh. 

If you're ranked 32nd, that means no one is worse than you and that's a lot of things to be ranked 32nd in. 

And then you have the Bears, who are the complete opposite of the Packers. Ben Johnson has designed such a perfect offense that it doesn't even matter who's under center. The Bears were down to their third-string QB (Case Keenum) in Week 3 and they still put up 375 yards of offense, which is more than the Packers have put up in three of their four games this year. In Week 4, Johnson gave the starting QB job to someone else (Tyson Bagent) and the Bears racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. 

At this point, I'm convinced that the Bears could start an actual bear at quarterback and the offense would still be serviceable. So Johnson has the better offense, and also, he hates the Packers. 

We need more head coaches who hate their division rivals. There was a game back in 1989 where Bengals coach Sam Wyche called a timeout with under 20 seconds left to play so he could kick a field goal. His team was up 58-7. He wanted to hit 60 points. The Bengals won 61-7. I could see Ben Johnson doing that (And shout out to my dad, former NFL kicker JIm Breech, for drilling the field goal)

The Packers' season isn't over if they lose here, but I think we'll be able to throw their division title hopes out the window. 

PICK: Bears (-3) 30-23 over Packers

49ers (4-0) at Seahawks (3-1)

  • Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

We are four weeks into the NFL season and no one has figured out how to stop the 49ers offense yet. In Week 1, the 49ers took a mini-vacation to Australia and then capped that vacation by dropping 27 points on the Rams. In Week 2, the 49ers scored 35 points before the end of the third quarter, but then took their foot off the gas against the Dolphins. In Week 3, Brock Purdy carved up the Cardinals' defense for four touchdowns in a game where the 49ers ended up scoring 36 points. In Week 4, the 49ers hit a road bump in the first half against the Broncos before exploding for 21 points in the second half. 

Through four weeks, the 49ers are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL. They're averaging 30.5 points per game and if they get to 30 in Seattle, they're going to win, because the 49ers do NOT lose shootouts. Since the start of the 2021 saeson, the 49ers are 37-1 when they score 30 points or more, including the playoffs. 

That being said, if anyone can hold the 49ers to under 30 points, it's the Seahawks, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Not only that, but they have a defensive mastermind in Mike Macdonald, who is the one head coach you want to have when you're facing a Kyle Shanahan offense. 

In his two seasons on the job, Macdonald has faced the 49ers five times, including one game in the playoffs, and the 49ers have only topped 30 points one time (and that came in Macdonald's first meeting with them, a game the Seahawks lost 36-20). In the four games since then, the 49ers haven't even hit the 20-point mark, and they've averaged just 10.8 points in those four games. 

This coaching matchup is basically like watching Garry Kasparov vs. Magnus Carlsen play each other in chess. I don't know if they've ever actually faced each other, but those are the only two chess names I know outside of Bobby Fischer, so we're going to stick with them. Shanahan will adjust to whatever Macdonald's been doing and then Macdonald will adjust to Shanahan's adjustments. It's a never-ending battle of wits. 

If Shanahan has one advantage going into this game, it's that Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his career. The 49ers QB hasn't been sacked a single time this season, marking just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a QB has led his team to a 4-0 start without being sacked. The only other quarterbacks to pull that off were Dan Marino for the 1984 Dolphins and Peyton Manning for the 2005 Colts. If you're doing things that only Marino and Manning have done, I can't pick against you. 

Purdy was my preseason pick to win MVP last year, and he's doing everything now that I thought he'd do in 2025. I hate making predictions. Although Lumen Field can get loud, no one has been able to handle that better than Purdy, who has the best record (4-1) of any visiting QB in Seattle. 

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I'm riding with the 49ers. Shanahan is going to use Purdy to checkmate the Seahawks.

PICK: 49ers (+2.5) 27-24 over Seahawks

Ravens (3-1) at Falcons (2-2)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

I don't usually put much stock in home-field advantage, but I have decided that I am NOT going to pick against the home team anymore on Sunday Night Football or any game on NBC. Through the first four weeks, here's what's happened in each NBC game: 

Week 1: New England at Seattle (-2.5) -- Seahawks win 13-10 (Wednesday night opener)
Week 1: Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+3) -- Giants win 28-20 
Week 2: Indianapolis at Kansas City (-6) -- Chiefs win 33-30
Week 3: L.A. Rams at Denver (+2.5) -- Broncos win 30-26
Week 4: Detroit at Carolina (+3.5) -- Panthers win 32-26

There have been five NBC games and the home team has won all of them, including three games where the home team was an underdog. Lamar Jackson is dealing with an ankle injury, so I don't know if he'll play in this game, but I don't care. I'm not picking against the home team. The NBC jinx is real and the Ravens are up next. 

One reason the Falcons might be able to win here is because the Ravens are extremely banged up. Not only is Jackson dealing with an ankle injury, but several key players, including CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) and guard Andrew Vorhees (foot) were knocked out of Baltimore's Week 3 games. 

Also, the Falcons have finally figured out how to play football. During the first two weeks of the season, they were stuck playing Cooper Rush at quarterback and that didn't work out so well for them. However, things have quickly turned around with Michael Penix under center. In Penix's two starts, the Falcons have averaged 40 points and 459 yards per game. 

No one can tackle Bijan Robinson. No one can cover Drake London. And Michael Penix actually looks like he knows what he's doing. He's making the right reads, he's getting the ball out quickly and he's throwing accurately. Penix only has four starts in his career where he's completed at least 70% of his passes, and two of them came in his two games this year. 

Even if this NBC jinx didn't exist, I'd probably still take the Falcons, but it does exist, so I don't have to put any thought into this pick. 

PICK: Falcons (+2.5) 30-27 over Ravens

Bills (3-1) at Rams (2-2)

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

After four weeks of Monday night blowouts, the Bills and Rams are here to save Monday Night Football. If you've been falling asleep at halftime of every Monday game this season, I can't blame you and that's because they've all been blowouts. 

Week 1: Chiefs 31-10 over Broncos
Week 2: Rams 28-6 over Giants
Week 3: Bears 27-7 over Eagles
Week 4: Falcons 45-24 over Saints

The games have been so bad that I've taught myself how to knit. That's now what I do with my Monday nights, but there will be no knitting this week. 

When I saw this game on the schedule back in August, I thought it looked like a potential Super Bowl preview, but after watching these two teams play for the past four weeks, I'm not so sure. 

The Bills are 3-1, but those three wins have come against three teams that are a combined 2-10. The Bills' best win came against a Lions team that currently has the NFL's worst defense. I'm not saying I'm concerned about the Bills just yet, but I'm not saying I'm not. I think what I'm trying to say is that I'm somewhat worried about this team and that's mostly because the defense can't stop anyone. The Patriots offense had scored a total of 29 points through the first three weeks and they hit that number in ONE game against the Bills

The Bills have given up the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL this season, and now, they have to face the reigning MVP (Matthew Stafford) and they have to figure out how to stop both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bills and if they had anyone besides Josh Allen at quarterback, I'dl probably pick the Rams by double digits, but they have Josh Allen. 

The last time the Bills played the Rams came two years ago, and it played out a lot like I expect things to play out on Sunday: The Bills' defense got steamrolled, but Buffalo still almost won thanks to a superhuman performance from Josh Allen, who totaled SIX TOUCHDOWNS. 

I'm expecting more of the same this week, but I could see that turnover number going up. Allen has made some questionable throws in big spots this year. In Week 4, he threw an interception that iced the win for the Patriots in a situation where the Bills only needed about 15 more yards to get into range for a possible game-tying field goal. In Week 1, the Bills would have lost to the Texans if Kamari Lassiter hadn't dropped a gift of an interception with under two minutes left to play. 

Allen can't afford to turn the ball over against the Rams because the Bills' defense just isn't good enough to bail him out against good teams. 

Heading into Week 4, the Bills were on top of the AFC East and they looked unbeatable, but things could soon get very interesting. If they lose this game, and the Patriots beat the Raiders, New England will suddenly take over first place in the division. 

This is a big game for both teams, but I feel like the Rams need it more, so I'm rolling with them.  

PICK: Rams (-2.5) 34-31 over Bills

NFL Week 5 picks: All the rest

Cowboys 27-17 over Buccaneers
Jaguars 30-20 over Eagles
Bears 23-20 over Packers
Texans 20-13 over Titans
Bengals 24-16 over Dolphins
Vikings 19-16 over Saints
Browns 20-17 over Jets
Colts 22-19 over Steelers 
Giants 23-16 over Commanders
Broncos 27-20 over Chargers
Lions 30-23 over Cardinals
BYES: Chiefs, Panthers

Last Week 

Best pick: Browns over Steelers. Last week, I predicted that the Browns would beat the Steelers by three points in a thriller and guess what happened? The Browns beat the Steelers by exactly three points in a thriller. Now, did I know that Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were going to cuss each other DURING the game? Of course. Rodgers and McCarthy are like a divorced couple who decided they're going to stay together until their youngest kid graduates high school.  

They necessarily want to be in this together, but at this point, it's pretty clear that it's the only option. 

Also, I picked the Browns to win because they're basically unbeatable on Thursday nights and that's when this game was played. I'm not sure the NFL would agree to it, but the Browns should definitely ask the league to schedule all of their games for Thursday night next season. 

Worst pick: Jets over Bears. The Jets have been bad for so long that I usually just automatically pick against them each week without even thinking about it, but for some reason, I strayed from that plan. In Week 4, I decided the Jets were going to pull off an upset against the Bears, and let me just say, that absolutely backfired in my face. Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson spent four seasons together in Detroit, so I thought maybe that would help Glenn when it came time to devise a defense that might be able to slow down the Bears, but I was wrong. 

In a wild coincidence, the team (Browns) from my best pick of the week is playing the team (Jets) from my worst pick of the week this Sunday. I bet you can guess who I'm taking. Hint: It's not the Jets. 

Picks record

  • Straight up in Week 4: 10-6
  • SU overall: 38-26
  • Against the spread in Week 4: 6-9-1
  • ATS overall: 28-34-2
  • BREECHIGAMIS: 1

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's sitting in a dark corner somewhere regretting every Jets pick that he's ever made in his life.

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