NFL Week 15 early picks: Fade the Chiefs and Colts, plus more best bets

What a wild Week 14! Playoff positions are all over the place at the moment -- look no further than the NFC, where the Bears lost a hard-fought battle against the Packers and went from the No. 1 seed to the No. 7 seed. The Eagles and Cowboys bookended the week with matchups that could have really flipped the NFC East but left things as they were coming in. Denver and New England have 11 wins and still haven't really secured their divisions, which is pretty wild. 

The Dolphins are somehow back involved in the AFC playoff race?! And Philip Rivers might be coming out of retirement to try to save the Colts' season!

There's plenty more chaos to come this week and through the rest of the season. Let's dive into some early Week 15 plays.

Bet it now: Chargers +4.5 vs. Chiefs

This line cannot be serious, right? I saw it before the Chargers played on Monday and held off on including it here at first because I figured it would move if they won. And surely it will move by lunch time on Tuesday. 

But as of now it's the line and it is something we should seriously consider. Yes, the Chargers are on a short week and coming off a massive win over the Eagles on MNF at home, so maybe there's potential for some let down -- except there's really not. 

The Chiefs are the primary concern when it comes to the postseason spot the Chargers currently own, thereby knocking Andy Ried and Patrick Mahomes out of the playoffs. Justin Herbert is banged up, but the Los Angeles defense looks elite and the Kansas City offense does not look good right now. It's already ticking down in some spots and should probably close closer to Chiefs -3.5.

Bet it now: Seahawks -13.5 vs. Colts

No one likes to lay this many points this early in the week and I don't blame you for questioning this, but the Seahawks are in a great spot right now when it comes to the Colts offense.

Daniel Jones is done for the year, Anthony Richardson apparently doesn't have his vision back and Riley Leonard is dealing with a knee injury. Things are so bad Indy is bringing in Philip Rivers for a visit on Tuesday to try to bring the 44-year-old quarterback out of retirement. 

Please bear in mind Rivers hasn't played for so long that he's currently a Pro Football Hall of Fame semi-finalist. 

It's pretty unlikely he'll start this week unless he blows the Colts' socks off in a workout or Leonard can't play at all. Either way, the top-shelf Seattle defense is getting an incredible matchup against whoever's under center for Indy. 

Slow down Jonathan Taylor at all and things could get ugly here quickly. This line will close past 14. 

Bet it now: Lions vs. Rams Under 55.5

Holy high total, Batman! This is a big boy number and while the matchup might dictate a lot of points being scored, I'm just not sure it gets this high.

Both of these teams like to run the football and aren't afraid to slow things down. I absolutely could see a shootout, but we've seen the Rams and Lions square off in recent years and the game play a little bit tighter.

Detroit's defense isn't as good as L.A.'s, but it's good enough. And the playoff implications in this one probably dictate a little more caution on offense and a little more running of the football. 

I could see this number closing at 53.5 pretty easily, and holding a 55.5 would be swell. 

Bet it now: Panthers -2.5 vs. Saints

Ordinarily I would exercise caution with this game because the Saints look frisky and already beat the Panthers once. But Carolina knows how massive this game is (even though they could technically lose and still get in with a sweep of the Buccaneers) and are coming off their bye with a chance to specifically game plan against the Saints.

The key factor here is we want to get the number under a field goal, and I don't think Carolina -2.5 will hang around very long, given the setup for the Panthers and the late-season bye.