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We have finally reached my least favorite week of the year: The first week after the time change. 

If I miss all of my picks this week, that's why. Turning the clock back and getting an extra hour of sleep sounds great in theory, but in reality, there is NO extra sleep for anyone in my house because I live with two kids under the age of five who don't believe in time changes. The time change should be optional for people who have kids. I tried to explain to them how the time change works, but it was like trying to explain to the Bengals how to play defense, you can use all the words you want, but it's just not going to help. 

The good news for the Bengals is that their defense probably won't give up any yards this week because they're on a bye. However, there are no byes here, so let's get to the Week 10 picks.  

Actually, before we get to the Week 10 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and if you want me invading your inbox twice a week, then you should definitely sign up. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. If you do that, it will instantly make us best friends and you don't even have to feel bad about it because I've already let all my current best friends know that they might be replaced this week. 

Alright, now let's get to the picks for real. 

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NFL Week 10 picks

Atlanta (3-5) vs. Indianapolis (7-2) in Berlin

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network,  Fubo -- try for free)

The NFL is clearly getting on board with this "Indiana Jones" stuff, because that's the only way to explain why Daniel Jones is getting sent to Germany this week for the league's first ever game in Berlin. Indiana Jones in Berlin? That's literally the entire plot of "The Last Crusade." 

You know what else is located in Germany? The original Cinderella castle, which I'm only bringing up because Jones might have finally turned into a pumpkin. During the Colts' loss to the Steelers on Sunday, he turned the ball over FIVE TIMES. If he turns it over five times this week, the Colts will lose by two touchdowns, but that won't happen because Shane Steichen won't let it happen. This is going to be a Jonathan Taylor game. If you don't want Jones to turn it over, then you just keep giving it to Taylor and that's exactly what I think the Colts will do. If you have Taylor on your fantasy team, congratulations, you're going to win this week.  

The Falcons defense has given up the FEWEST passing yards per game in the NFL this year (158.1), so the best way to beat them is to run the ball. Although Taylor struggled against the Steelers with just 45 yards, I don't see that happening two weeks in a row. The Falcons have given up more than 100 rushing yards in seven of their eight games this year, so Taylor should be able to run on them. 

Sure, the Falcons could come up with a unique plan to stop Taylor, but I don't see that happening for two reasons. For one, they're too busy accusing the patriots of cheating (Falcons coach Raheem Morris said the Patriots were simulating Atlanta's snap count in Week 9, which is illegal). 

The other reason I don't think they'll be able to stop Taylor is because they don't even know what to do with their own running back. Bijan Robinson has been one of the best running backs in the NFL this year, but you wouldn't know that because he has turned into the Bugatti parked at the mobile home. 

Out of those two options, the Falcons have nothing figured out. Atlanta is 3-0 this season when Robinson gets 15 carries or more in a game, but the Falcons don't care. They just refuse to hand him the ball. He got just nine carries in a Week 8 loss to the Dolphins and he got 12 carries on Sunday against New England. 

I know what you're thinking, "The Falcons fell behind in both games, so they had to get away from the run." No. They didn't even use him in the first half of either game. He got four first half carries against Miami and five against the Patriots. 

When Robinson gets hot, that takes a lot of pressure off of Michael Penix Jr. and right now, that's what the Falcons need. If someone reminds the Falcons' coaching staff that Robinson is on the team, then maybe Atlanta pulls off the upset here, but the more likely scenario is that Indiana Jones gets the grail diary back and uses it to find the path to the Lombardi Trophy. 

PICK: Colts 27-20 over Falcons | Colts -6| Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore (3-5) at Minnesota (4-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo -- try for free)

If you've looked at the NFL standings at any point over the past 24 hours, you may have noticed that the NFC North is arguably the best all-around division in football. Heading into Week 10, it's the only division where all four teams are at .500 or above. Oh, and did I mention that the four teams in the NFC North are a combined 8-3 against AFC North? The only reason I'm pointing all of this out is because the Ravens are favored to win this week, but maybe they shouldn't be. 

Despite their 3-5 record, the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North and that's mostly because they have Lamar Jackson back on the field. Jackson missed a month of football, but then returned with a bang in Week 8 with four touchdown passes in a blowout win over the Dolphins. 

Normally, when Jackson faces an NFC team I automatically pick the Ravens -- and that's mainly because he has a career record of 24-3 against NFC teams -- but I can not blindly pick the Ravens this week because Jackson isn't as automatic as he used to be against NFC teams (He's 0-2 over the past 12 months, including a loss to the Lions this year). 

As a starter, Jackson is 2-3 this year and in all three of those losses, the Ravens surrendered at least 37 points, so if even if Jackson plays well, that doesn't necessarily mean Baltimore is going to win. That's called getting Bengal'd, where your offense puts up a ton of points, but you still lose because your defense can't stop anyone. That's what I think might happen to Baltimore this week. 

The Ravens have given up the fifth-most passing yards per game in the NFL this year and that could be a problem for a team that's about to face a Vikings offense that has one of the top receivers in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. I definitely don't trust J.J. McCarthy just yet and if the Ravens could get any pressure on the quarterback, I'd probably lean toward Baltimore, but they haven't been able to do that this year. Even the Ravens know they've struggled to get pressure on the QB, which is why they added Dre'Mont Jones in a trade on Monday night. Jones might eventually help Baltimore's defense, but I don't think he'll help much this week. 

The Ravens have NEVER won in Minnesota and I'm going to say that streak somehow continues on Sunday. 

PICK: Vikings 27-24 over Ravens | Vikings +4 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

New England (7-2) at Tampa Bay (6-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS,  Paramount+)

For the first time since Tom Brady retired, we're getting the Tom Brady bowl. If I ran the NFL, I would move this game to Tom Brady's backyard and let Tom Brady handle the coin toss. I'd also make every player on the field wear a Tom Brady jersey, but Tom Brady would NOT get to announce the game because it's on CBS and we have the all-world crew of Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson handling that. 

Tom Brady left New England after the 2019 season and it took the Patriots five years to find his replacement, but the patience has definitely paid off, because Drake Maye looks like a superstar. During the Patriots' Week 9 win over the Falcons, Maye had his eighth straight game of at least 200 passing yards and a QB rating of at least 100, which moved him passed Patrick Mahomes for the longest streak ever by a player under the age of 24 all-time. If Maye hits those numbers this week, then he'll have nine straight, which will move past TOM BRADY for the second-longest streak in NFL history (Brady did it during the Patriots' undefeated season in 2007).

The only question I have about Maye is whether he can single-handedly carry the Patriots, especially against a good team. Does that sound like a crazy question? Yes, but hear me out. Since making his first career start last year, the Patriots are 1-9 in any game where Maye has had to throw the ball 30 times or more, including 0-2 this year. That means Maye is 9-2 when he throws the ball less than 30 times, so he although he's been AMAZING, he hasn't really had to put the team on his back. 

The reason I'm bringing that up this week is because every game against the Buccaneers seems to turn into a shootout. With the way the Bucs play, the opposing quarterback is almost always forced to throw it more than 30 times. Five of Tampa's eight opponents have thrown more than 30 passes against them. In the Bucs' eight games this year, opposing teams are averaging 34.9 pass attempts per game (The Patriots are 0-7 when Maye attempts more than 34 passes). It's easy to say, "well, if you're throwing a lot, it's because you're trailing," but five of Maye's seven losses in that 0-7 span came in games that were decided by one score. 

Both of these teams are surrendering less than 95 yards per game on the ground -- the Patriots have given up the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this year -- so this feels like a matchup where both quarterbacks are going to be throwing it a lot. 

If the Patriots are going to win, they're likely going to need Maye to throw the ball, but they haven't been able to win when he's forced to throw the ball. You know who does win when he's forced to throw the ball? Baker Mayfield. The Bucs are 3-2 this season when he throws the ball 30 or more times. 

In the battle of Tom Brady replacements, I'll take the Fighting Mayfields. 

PICK: Buccaneers 27-24 over Patriots | Buccaneers -2.5 | Odds via BetMGM

Pittsburgh (5-3) at L.A. Chargers (6-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC,  Fubo -- try for free)

It's probably too late, but the Steelers might want to check with the NFL about the possibility of getting this game flexed to 1 p.m. ET. Heading into Week 10, the Steelers are 0-2 in prime time this year, but 5-1 when they don't play in prime time. Over the past 12 months, the Steelers are 0-5 in prime time (including the playoffs) and 9-4 in all other games. 

And then you have the Chargers, who not only have won four straight prime-time games, but they've averaged 29.5 points per game in those wins. Advantage: Chargers. 

Although the Steelers have been bad in prime time, I can't base my entire pick on that. This game is all going to come down to which Steelers defense shows up on Sunday. In Week 9, the Steelers pulled off an upset over the Colts by forcing six turnovers. That's the good Steelers defense. But let's not forget about Week 7 when Joe Flacco threw for 900 yards against them in a 33-31 Pittsburgh loss. That's the bad Steelers defense. 

The bad Steelers defense has been showing up a lot this year, and to be honest, no matter which ones show up Sunday, the unit is probably going to struggle to slow down the Chargers. Heading into Week 10, the Steelers have surrendered 278.3 passing yards per game this year, which is the MOST in the NFL by far. Even the Bengals, who have the worst defense in football history, have only given up 260.1 yards through the air this year. So you have a bad Steelers defense that will have to figure out a way to stop Justin Herbert, who has the second-most passing yards in the NFL this year. 

In Week 9, the Steelers stopped the NFL's leading passer (Daniel Jones), but that only worked because the Colts' offense revolves around Jonathan Taylor and if you stop him, you can stop Indy. With the Chargers, they don't need their running game to beat you, they just need Herbert. As a matter of fact, the Chargers are 1-2 this year when they rush for 150 yards or more, so they're actually worse when they run the ball well. For the Chargers to win this game, they need Hebert to pick apart the Steelers and not turn over the football (The Chargers are 5-0 this season when Herbert has a QB rating above 100 and 1-3 when he doesn't). 

The loss of Joe Alt hurts because the Chargers weren't really in a position to lose any more offensive linemen, but I'll say the Herbert puts on his Superman cape and leads the Chargers to a prime-time win.  

PICK: Chargers 34-27 over Steelers | Chargers -3 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Philadelphia (6-2) at Green Bay (5-2-1)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN,  Fubo -- try for free)

Like most people, I flipped my clock back over the weekend, which I'm only mentioning, because that means it's November and the time change is my annual reminder that it's time to start picking the Eagles to win every game they play in for the rest of the month. During the first two months of the season, picking the Eagles is always a crapshoot because they're always bickering over something which causes them to lose one or two inexplicable games, but once the calendar hits November, they destroy everyone in their path. 

Since the start of the 2023 season, the Eagles are 7-0 in the month of November, but it won't be easy to keep that undefeated streak going this year because they'll be facing the Packers, Lions and Cowboys between now and the end of the month. 

Heading into November, the Eagles had two big weaknesses on their defense: Their secondary has been struggling and their pass-rush hasn't been as good as it was last year. Well, Howie Roseman, who spends so much time on his phone around the trade deadline that we should just name the deadline after him, went out and made THREE trades over the past few days to fix those problems. 

  • On Oct. 29, the Eagles acquired CB Michael Carter II in a trade with the Jets. 
  • On Nov. 1, the Eagles made a deal for CB Jaire Alexander (in a trade with the Ravens)
  • On Nov. 3, they called the Dolphins and made a trade for Jaelen Phillips 

This is apparently why they're so good in November, because if they have any weaknesses, Roseman goes out and fixes them at the trade deadline.

This week, the Eagles head to Green Bay, and let me just say, there is no team in the NFL more confusing than the Packers. This is a team that has impressive wins over the Lions and Steelers, but then they also lost to both the Browns and Panthers. 

I like the Packers a lot, but I think the offense is going to look out of sync this week due to the loss of Tucker Kraft. The tight end leads the team in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, but he's out for the season after tearing his ACL in Week 9. I think Jordan Love is going to have a tough time adjusting in his first game this season without his star tight end. 

PICK: Eagles 27-20 over Packers | Eagles +2.5 | Odds via DraftKings, where new users bet $5, get $300 in Bonus Bets + 3 Months of NBA League Pass. Click here to get started:

NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest

Broncos 24-17 over Raiders
Bears 20-17 over Giants
Bills 34-24 over Dolphins
Browns 19-16 over Jets
Panthers 24-16 over Saints
Jaguars 23-20 over Texans
Seahawks 27-23 over Cardinals
Rams 30-23 over 49ers
Lions 30-20 over Commanders

BYES: Bengals, Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Ravens would win by double digits over the Dolphins and guess what happened? The Ravens won by double digits over the Dolphins. Now, did I know that the Dolphins were going to completely implode and then fire their general manager after the loss? Kind of. There is no one who loves firing people more than Stephen Ross. The Dolphins owner has fired three head coaches over the past 10 years and I thought for sure he was going to add another one last week, but then he threw a curveball by firing the general manager (Chris Grier). I'm sure Dolphins fans would love to see Ross fire himself, but I don't think that's how being an owner works. If you're a Dolphins fan who wants to see a new owner, I think your best bet at this point is to start a GoFundMe and try to raise $8 billion, which you can then use to buy the team. If you go that route, I promise to donate at least $5 to the cause. 

Worst pick: The Bengals have arguably the worst defense in the history of football and even though I was well aware of that fact going into Week 9, I still picked them to beat the Bears, and not surprisingly, that pick blew up in my face. There was a small span of about 13 seconds on Sunday where I didn't think it was going to blow up in my face, but it did. With 23 seconds left in the game, all the Bengals had to do was tackle Colston Loveland to give themselves a shot at a win and even though he was SURROUNDED BY THREE GUYS, they couldn't do it. 

That man somehow broke loose for a touchdown. If there's one picture that sums up the Bengals defensive play in 2025, that's is definitely it. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got nine full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I'm 8-0 picking this year (Straight up): NONE
Teams I'm 8-1 picking this year (Straight up): Colts, Titans, Broncos, Saints, Raiders (7-1)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Lions (3-6), Falcons (3-5)

Longest winning streak: Raiders (Seven straight games picked correctly)
Longest losing streak: Bengals, Steelers and Packers (two straight games picked incorrectly)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 9: 8-6
SU overall: 87-47-1

Against the spread in Week 9: 8-6
ATS overall: 64-71

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably still trying to explain to his kids how the time change works and by the time they understand, it will probably already be time to change the clock again.