NFL Week 1 picks: Betting expert says home underdogs, including Chicago Bears, provide excellent value

NFL divisional home underdogs present one of the most compelling and historically profitable betting opportunities in Week 1. They are backed by decades of data and numerous factors that create unique value for sports bettors. The statistical evidence supporting divisional home underdogs in Week 1 is nothing short of spectacular. Since 2009, these underdogs have a 23-6 record against the spread, achieving an impressive 79.3% success rate. 

Analyzing the data in more detail reveals an even stronger performance in recent seasons. Since 2012, home dogs are an impressive 18-4. From 2018 to present day, divisional home underdogs have a 10-2 record against the spread. This consistency across various periods shows that this trend is reliable based on fundamental factors. I have been cautious in recent years, thinking a regression to the mean is near, but it never materializes. The trend is your friend until it has run its course.

Teams in the same division often have a deep understanding of one another, having faced each other twice a year for decades. This familiarity balances out differences in talent, as both coaches and players know each other's tendencies well. Even rookie head coaches will utilize all the game film from previous matchups. These games are more competitive regardless of expectations for the upcoming season. Playing at home in the opening week against a division rival generates maximum motivation. Teams are desperate to make early statements in the division race, and home underdogs have "nothing to lose" while road favorites face pressure to validate their higher expectations. The oddsmakers have caught on with no divisional home dog getting more than 5.5 points in Week 1.

Here's a look at this season's Week 1 home underdogs, and how confident I am on a 1-5 scale in their ability to keep this NFL betting trend going.

Week 1 divisional home underdogs

Chicago Bears (+1.5)

Confidence: 5

I believe the Chicago Bears will exceed their win total, while the Minnesota Vikings will underperform this season. The Vikings will start rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy in his first career start on Monday Night Football, playing a road game. I view the Bears as a strong choice, even without this system. With that in mind, I really like the Bears' chances to win outright.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 

Confidence: 5

The Atlanta Falcons are consensus home underdogs in this NFC South rivalry opener. As noted above, Week 1 divisional home underdogs have gone 29-8 ATS since 2009, making this the highest-percentage system available. A fresh slate mentality negates previous season performance, and the public typically overreacts to offseason narratives. Atlanta is my choice to win the division at plus money, and this would be a great start.

Cleveland Browns +5.5

Confidence: 3

The Cleveland Browns are 5.5-point home underdogs in this clash of AFC North foes. Teams familiar with each other tend to have closer games than the betting spreads indicate, and these are two very familiar opponents. Additionally, home-field advantage is amplified in Week 1, as crowd energy is at its peak and the optimism for the regular season is high. Underdog teams often play with a sense of urgency that the betting line does not fully consider.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 

Confidence: 1

We have a classic NFC West rivalry, with the Seattle Seahawks receiving points at home. It is not the vaunted home-field advantage of yesteryear's Seahawks, as they were 8-9 straight up and 5-11-1 against the spread at Lumen Field over the last two seasons. I am down on the Seahawks this season and high on the San Francisco 49ers. This is a pass for me, as I have low confidence at the current number.