NFL's next act in reinvigorating special teams? Double the onside kick success rate -- or ditch it altogether

NEW YORK -- The NFL appears to have saved the kickoff after being on life support for years. Now its attention turns to the onside kick, which has been terminal for years.

In its presentation to NFL team owners and executives Tuesday, the league's football operations department noted the NFL needs to look at how to fix a once exciting play that has become almost too impossible to execute.

Troy Vincent, the NFL's executive vice president of football operations, mentioned to team owners the need to consider a potential onside kick alternative this offseason. That could take the form of a new-look onside kick, or the long-discussed-but-never-taken-seriously fourth-and-long attempt.

"Now that we see what has happened with the dynamic kickoff," Vincent said, "it may be time for the membership to revisit some of those things that may be out of the ordinary."

Vincent was probably trying to plant the seed in the heads of owners as they watch this season. Only one of the 21 onside kick attempts has been recovered by the kicking team, making for a paltry 4.7% recovery rate.

The NFL doesn't want to make it easier for trailing team to come back, but they want to give them a semblance of a chance. Sources say the league would prefer the rate be around 12%.

A series of changes to the kickoff have nearly killed the onside kick. From 2000 through the 2017 regular season, the onside recovery rate was 19.5%. Before the 2018 season, the league changed the rules that prohibited players on the kickoff team from a 5-yard running start at the kick, placing players just one yard off the ball.

The return rate cratered. From 2018 through 2023, just 8.7% of onside tries were recovered. Then came the dynamic kickoff.

With the new kickoff setup, teams were forced to declare the onside attempt, eliminating entirely the element of surprise. On top of that, the NFL disallowed teams from trying it unless they were trailing in the fourth quarter. Only three of 50 attempts were recovered in 2024 -- a 6% rate.

The NFL saw the dying try but kept its focus in 2023 and 2024 on reinvigorating the kickoff. Through Week 7, 79.3% of kickoffs were returned compared to a historic low 18.2% in 2023.

This past offseason the NFL tried to tweak the play by scooting the players up a yard. But those inside the league figured it wouldn't make much of a difference. It has not.

The NFL's internal tracking data has shown them that without the run-up, players need a few yards ahead of the ball's spot. An ideal spot for the players, instead of being at the 34, could be at the 37-yard line with the ball being kicked from the 35. It would make for a unique setup, but so is the dynamic kickoff.

Another option for the league has been the fourth-and-15-or-so alternative. Former Broncos GM John Elway first proposed the fourth-and-15 alternative toward the end of the 2010s with the onside recovery rate declining. It never gained traction, but years later the Eagles picked it back up, with Philly recommending a fourth-and-20 play from the kicking team's 25-yard line.

NFL data suggests a fourth-and-17 play has a success rate around 12%, so that could be the sweet spot for such a play. But it comes with issues.

First, it's gimmicky, and that's likely the main reason team owners haven't been interested in pursuing it. Second, there are concerns that a defensive pass interference could give the "kicking" team possession of the ball without actually being "successful" in the attempt. The 'ole underthrown ball where the receiver works back into a cornerback who hasn't turned his head around would result in a first down for the kicking team.

But this is the entire point. Much like the kickoff needed change and the league charged special teams coaches with putting together alternatives, the onside kick needs a boost. And it may be gimmicky and look different, but some knobs need adjusting.

The seed has been planted in team owners' minds to keep a watch on the play and think about alternatives that could come in future years.