NFL longshot picks, player props, predictions: Model targeting Dillon Gabriel 220+ yards in Week 6

Dillon Gabriel is set to make just his second NFL start for the Cleveland Browns in his rookie season, and although it hasn't come at the NFL level, he is older and has more football experience than other non-rookie quarterbacks such as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Gabriel took his first college snap in 2019 when Williams and Maye were still in high school, and he started 64 games over six college seasons, gaining additional eligibility through the COVID-19 pandemic and injury. He threw for more than 3,100 yards in each of the five seasons he played more than three games, and graduated as the FBS all-time leader in passing touchdowns (155) while playing at UCF, Oklahoma and Oregon. 

The 24-year-old rookie threw for 190 yards against the Vikings in his first NFL start last week, but the SportsLine Machine Learning Model expects his passing volume to increase in his second start, projecting him for 230 passing yards. With DraftKings offering Gabriel for 220+ passing yards on the alternative line for NFL player props at +247 odds, the model views this as one of its best longshot bets for Week 6 NFL betting at online betting sites. 

SportsLine's Machine Learning Model can help you find value to add to your Week 6 NFL picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code, where new users receive 20 100% profit boost tokens with the code CBS20X:

Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine's Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each player prop. 

Best Week 6 NFL longshot picks:

• Dillon Gabriel, Browns, 220+ passing yards (+247)
• David Montgomery Lions, 60+ rushing yards (+250)
• Darren Waller, Dolphins, anytime touchdown scorer (+290)

New users can play these picks with the latest DraftKings promo code, where you can get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins: (odds subject to change)

Dillon Gabriel, Browns, 220+ passing yards (+247)

Gabriel threw for 3,857 yards at Oregon last year, which was eighth in college football, before being selected in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He completed 19 of 33 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns in his debut against the Vikings last week, and now that he's had his taste of NFL football, the model projects a stronger performance in his second start. The Browns return from London to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 260.5 passing yards per game this year, including 350 yards to Carson Wentz in Week 4 before the bye week.

The Steelers haven't played elite quarterbacks either. Wentz, Drake Maye and Sam Darnold all threw for more than 220 yards, while Justin Field finished with 218 passing yards. You can find this alternate passing yards option at DraftKings Sportsbook at +247 odds, and with the latest DraftKings promo code, new users can get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.

David Montgomery Lions, 60+ rushing yards (+250)

Montgomery had a season-high 18 carries last week for 65 yards in Detroit's 37-24 win over the Bengals. He rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries against the Ravens in Week 3, as he's reached 60 rushing yards in two of his last three contests. Montgomery played one more snap than Jahmyr Gibbs (33 to 32) last week, and part of that was due to game script, but also as a way to keep both Montgomery and Gibbs healthy throughout the season and for a likely Lions playoff run. 

The 28-year-old has at least nine carries on 20 snaps in all five games this season, and the Lions may look to control the time of possession and run more on Sunday Night Football against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs rank 21st in rushing defense (123.4 yards per game) and 26th in yards per rush (4.8). Fanatics Sportsbook offers Montgomery for 60+ rushing yards at +250 odds, and with the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, new users can bet $50 and get $250 in FanCash.

Darren Waller, Dolphins, anytime touchdown scorer (+290)

Waller's snap percentage increased from 28% to 58% in his first two games of the season over the last two weeks after his one-year retirement from the NFL. The 33-year-old had two touchdowns against the Jets in his return, and he scored again last week while securing all five of his targets for 78 yards against the Panthers. Waller's return comes at an opportune time with Tyreek Hill (knee) out for the season, and Waller figures to be a key part of the passing attack the remainder of the season.

The Dolphins play the Chargers, who are coming off losses to the Giants and Commanders. The model projects Waller to score a touchdown in 41% of simulations, compared to his +290 odds giving implied odds of 25.6%. FanDuel is offering Waller at +290 odds, compared to other sportsbooks having him in the +265 range, and with the latest FanDuel promo code, new users receive $300 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

Want more Week 6 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's NFL longshot picks for Week 6. Now, get NFL Week 6 projections for every NFL spread, total and player prop at SportsLine.

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You can also see the model's best bets for every Week 6 NFL game, including Cardinals vs. Colts, Bengals vs. Packers and Lions vs. Chiefs. Finally, SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who is 11-1 (+988) over his last 12 NFL ATS picks, has locked in multiple Week 6 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.

Want more huge paydays? The model has also built a five-leg Week 6 NFL parlay that would pay well over $7,000 for a $10 bet. Check out the model's Week 6 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.