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Defeating Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs is one of the more difficult things to do in sports, and the Denver Broncos look to add themselves to that short list this weekend. The Chiefs are 9-3 during the regular season in the week following a bye under Reid, and with Kansas City coming off a 28-21 loss against Buffalo before its break, the Chiefs could be even more focused coming out of the bye. It's a high-stakes football weekend in Missouri sports betting, as along with the Chiefs playing the current AFC West leaders, the No. 22 Missouri Tigers play Mississippi State in a crucial contest if the Tigers want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. The SportsLine advance projection model has locked in its best bets for both the Chiefs and Missouri, along with Missouri State in action against UTEP, to build a Missouri parlay that pays more than 6-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The model is backing the Tigers to cover as 7.5-point favorites, as well as taking the Under in the Chiefs and Bears contests this weekend in a Missouri parlay at FanDuel. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. It has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks. Anyone following its NFL betting picks or college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Three Missouri betting picks for NFL and college football (odds subject to change): 

  • Missouri State vs. UTEP: Under 48.5 total points
  • Missouri (-7.5) vs. Mississippi State
  • Chiefs vs. Broncos: Under 44.5 points

Combining the model's three picks into a parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +613 (risk $100 to win $613).

Missouri State vs. UTEP: Under 48.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)

The Over hit is Missouri State's season-opener against USC, which is no surprise being that the Trojans have the No. 4 scoring offense in the nation. However, the Over has not hit since, and that's a trend the model has taken note of and expects to continue on Saturday. The Under has hit in eight straight Bears games, often finishing well below the over/under mark. Six of the eight Unders have hit by 9.5 points or greater, including going Under 51.5 points in last week's 21-17 victory over Liberty. The Unders have also ed to strong results for the Bears, who are 6-3 and riding a four-game winning streak. The model projects this trend to continue, with the Under hitting in 60% of simulations for this 3 p.m. ET matchup on Saturday.

Missouri (-7.5) vs. Mississippi State (+100, FanDuel)

Missouri is 6-3 this season, with all three losses coming against ranked opponents. Mississippi State is currently unranked at 5-5 overall, including 1-5 in SEC play. Five of the Tigers' six wins have come by at least eight points as well to cover this margin. The Tigers are 4-2 against the spread as the favorite this year. Mississippi State is coming off a 41-21 loss to Georgia last week. Missouri sophomore running back Ahmad Hardy is fourth in college football in rushing at 1,046 yards this season, including rushing for 109 yards on 8.4 yards per carry against No. 3 Texas A&M last week. The Tigers are seventh in college football in rushing at 234 rushing yards per game, and the model projects another strong rushing performance on Saturday. The Tigers cover the spread in 60% of simulations for this 7:45 p.m. ET start.

Chiefs vs. Broncos: Under 44.5 points (-115, FanDuel)

The Chiefs and Broncos both have top-five scoring defenses this season, with Denver ranking third at 17.3 ppg allowed this season and Kansas City fourth at 17.7 ppg allowed this year. The Broncos' defense has been integral to their seven-game winning streak as the offense hasn't performed nearly as consistently. Denver has allowed 22 total points over its last two games. The Under has hit in seven of 10 Broncos games this season, including each of its last two contests. Meanwhile, the Under has hit in four straight Kansas City games and six of nine contests on the season. The Chiefs are allowing 11.3 points over their last four games, and the model projects the Under to hit in 57% of simulations for this 4:25 p.m. ET start.