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Aaron Rodgers had the most efficient game for a quarterback his age in NFL history last week, becoming the oldest quarterback to complete 85% of his passes nearly two weeks after his 42nd birthday. The Steelers quarterback completed 23 of 27 passes for 224 yards in a 28-15 win over the Dolphins. However, the Dolphins needed a miracle to make the postseason, even if they won that game, and it showed in their performance. This week is an entirely different situation with Rodgers going against the Lions, who have been one of the best teams in the league the last few years, and Detroit remains relevant in the NFC postseason picture. 

The Detroit Lions host the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday in a crucial game for both teams. With that, the SportsLine model doesn't project Rodgers to have as strong a performance, including Rodgers' Under 232.5 passing yards and the Lions to cover as 7-point favorites as a part of a Lions vs. Steelers same-game parlay that pays out at 5-1 at DraftKings. The model is also backing Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams for Over 67.5 receiving yards to conclude its Steelers vs. Lions same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 on a 52-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Lions vs. Steelers SGP betting picks for NFL Week 16 at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Lions -7 (-115)
  • Aaron Rodgers Under 228.5 passing yards (-111)
  • Jameson Williams Over 68.5 receiving yards (-112)

Combining the model's three Steelers vs. Lions picks into a same-game parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +554 (risk $100 to win $554).

Lions -7 (-115, DraftKings)

The Lions have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL at 30.6 points per game this season, including 33.7 ppg at home. Detroit is 5-2 at home this season, with all five of its wins coming by at least seven points. The Lions are coming off a 41-34 loss to the Rams last week, but they are 4-1 against the spread following a loss while winning all five of those games straight up. The model projects that trend to continue with the Lions covering in 52% of simulations.

Aaron Rodgers Under 228.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)

Rodgers has gone Under this total in six of his last seven games, even last week when he completed 85% of his passes on 27 attempts. The 42-year-old threw for 224 yards last week, which was just his second time breaking 200 yards in his last five contests. The future Hall of Famer isn't the same pass-heavy quarterback he was throughout his career, and especially in a game against an offense like the Lions, an effective strategy would probably be to try and control the time of possession. That won't come with Rodgers taking deep shots down the field. Rodgers is averaging 199.5 passing yards per game this season, and the model projects him for 210 passing yards on Sunday. Play Rodgers' Under.

Jameson Williams Over 68.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

The big-play receiver has showcased why he was the No 12 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft in recent weeks, going well Over this number in each of the last three games and in five of his last six contests. Williams has more than 95 yards in three straight games, averaging 124.7 yards per game over that span. He also has at least 88 yards in five of his last six games. He has at least nine targets in three straight games, and given his effectiveness and importance to the offense, the model projects Williams to finish well Over this total. The model projects Williams for 85 receiving yards on Sunday.