Lamar Jackson's two Hall of Fame careers: How Ravens QB measures up to Canton standards as passer and rusher

Lamar Jackson is just over a week away from the start of his eighth NFL season. With that comes the excitement of another year watching perhaps the game's most electrifying quarterback still in his prime, with the backdrop of the obligatory "will he ever get over the hump?" question.

I'm going to dodge the Super Bowl topic in today's ring culture, take the glass-half-full approach and look at a player who is not authoring one Hall of Fame career, but two. 

Jackson is already a lock for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He has two NFL MVP awards and could have easily won a third last season. All seven retired players with multiple NFL MVP awards (excluding Tom Brady, who is not eligible for the Hall of Fame yet) are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. That's Peyton Manning, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Jim Brown, Steve Young, Joe Montana and Kurt Warner.

Ravens' Lamar Jackson makes comment that should scare every NFL defense: 'The game has gotten a lot easier'

John Breech

Lamar Jackson is only 28 years old and he could never play another snap and would still be enshrined in Canton. Pretty cool. Even more impressive, he's on the path to two Hall of Fame careers. I believe that if you isolate his passing and rushing statistics, you would see that both trajectories are Hall of Fame worthy.

Few players rival Jackson's production on a per-play basis in both areas. He averages the seventh most yards per pass attempt (7.8) since 1970 among players with 1,500 passes. He's first in yards per rush attempt (6.1) in that span among players with 1,000 rushes.

His combo of volume and efficiency isn't bad, either. He's the only player with 150+ pass touchdowns and fewer than 50 interceptions through seven seasons in NFL history. He's the only player with 6,000+ rush yards on 6.0+ yards per rush through seven seasons. He is a unicorn.

Lamar Jackson Career

Of course, his passing and rushing prowess (especially his blazing speed) both feed into each other and make him into the Hall of Fame package he is today. But for kicks, let's pretend each part of his game is its own career and see how it stacks up to a Hall of Fame measuring stick.

Lamar Jackson's Hall of Fame résumé as a passer

It's wild to think that the NFL's all-time rushing leader among quarterbacks also has a Hall of Fame résumé as a passer if you isolate his passing stats. That's the case with Jackson. This comes with the caveat that you must disregard the fact that Jackson's rushing ability has elevated his passing numbers. 

Earlier this month, Ravens coach John Harbaugh pointed out Jackson's passing credentials. "He is a historically good passer," Harbaugh said on ESPN's Kevin Clark's "This is Football" podcast. "And that's really quite a statement because of the narrative that's been surrounding him ever since the beginning. Lamar Jackson can throw the football. He can throw it every kind of way; he can make every kind of throw any kind of way you want. He's as good as any passer that there's ever been -- and I think now the numbers are proving that."

Jackson's passing numbers are truly a sight to behold. He ranks top 10 in the NFL since 1970 in passer rating (102.0), yards per pass attempt (7.8), pass touchdown percentage (6.4%), interception rate (1.9%) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.4). That's among quarterbacks with at least 1,500 career pass attempts. He has the most games in NFL history with at least five touchdown passes and five or fewer incompletions (five). 

Lamar Jackson career (NFL rank since 1970, minimum 1,500 attempts)

In 2024, he became the first player in NFL history to have 40+ pass touchdowns and fewer than five interceptions in a single season. He posted the fourth-highest passer rating in a season all-time (119.6). 

His passing numbers are now stunningly close in several efficiency measures to those of Patrick Mahomes. 

Mahomes still has the edge, especially when considering advanced metrics like EPA per throw and pass success rate, which take into account situational football. Nonetheless, it's stunning Jackson is not just in his area code, but virtually the same or better in terms of career yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating.

Mahomes vs. Jackson - NFL careers

Of course, Jackson's Hall of Fame case as just a passer is far more nuanced than a comparison to one player. It's difficult to rely solely on his efficiency measures because of how much easier passing is in today's game compared to that of quarterbacks already in the Hall of Fame. You can't rely too much on his volume numbers either because he throws much less than this generation's best passers. He averages 25.1 career pass attempts per game, well behind the likes of Patrick Mahomes (37.2), Drew Brees (36.8), Tom Brady (36.0) and Peyton Manning (35.3).

There are ways to thread the needle, though. Pro Football Reference's adjusted net yards per pass attempt index (ANY/A+ for short) is a great way to compare passing numbers across eras and it's also easy to understand because it's based on a scale where 100 is average. Think of it as a much better version of passer rating, adjusted for different eras, that takes into account a quarterback's passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and sacks on a per-throw basis.

Jackson's figure in this department is 116. That's better than the average rating of the 14 Hall of Fame quarterbacks to debut since 1970 (112). 

ANY/A+ of Hall of Fame quarterbacks to debut since 1970

Jackson may never throw for 500 touchdowns or 60,000 yards like today's Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks, but on a per-throw basis, he's as good as anyone. He has the same career ANY/A+ as Tom Brady and Drew Brees. It's higher than potential Hall of Famers like Philip Rivers (112), Russell Wilson (109), Matt Ryan (107) and Matthew Stafford (105). So even as Jackson declines as a passer later in his career, he still has some wiggle room to compare favorably to other great quarterbacks in this department.

ANY/A+ of Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks since 2000

While the frequency of Jackson's passes will make it impossible to keep up with the next wave of Hall of Fame quarterbacks in terms of volume, he could still hang with them at his best. Consider that Jackson has ranked in the top two in the NFL in touchdown passes two times in his career (2019 and 2024). That's the same number as Patrick Mahomes. Historically, it's also the same figure as Joe Montana, and greater than the combined figures of Jim Kelly and John Elway. 

Finally, Jackson checks off this box. Is he consistently one of the best passers on a year-by-year basis? For the most part, yes. He's ranked top 10 in EPA per throw in three of the last six seasons. He has been in the top 10 in pass success rate in three of the previous six seasons. 

He ranks seventh in touchdown passes (165) since his first career start in Week 11 of 2018. He's also first in yards per attempt (7.8) and touchdown rate (6.4%) in that span. 

Lamar Jackson NFL ranks since first career start (Week 11, 2018)

Again, there are some challenges to claim he's going to have a Hall of Fame résumé as a passer when it's all said and done.

• The passing numbers in today's game are inflated compared with those of quarterbacks already in the Hall of Fame
• He's still only about halfway through his career
• He doesn't throw as much as other quarterbacks because of his otherworldly rushing ability. 

But, he still has a strong case for these three reasons.

• 1) On a per-throw basis, he's better than most Hall of Fame passers when using era-adjusted stats. His career ANY/A+ (adjusted net yards per pass attempt index) of 116 is higher than the average Hall of Fame quarterback to debut since 1970 (112). It's also the same number as Tom Brady and Drew Brees for their careers.
• 2) His peak performance, even in volume measures, is impressive. He has ranked in the top two in the NFL in touchdown passes two times in his career (2019 and 2024). That's the same number as Patrick Mahomes. Historically, it's also the same figure as Joe Montana, and greater than the combined figures of Jim Kelly and John Elway. 
• 3) He's one of the best passers in the league on a yearly basis. He ranks seventh in touchdown passes (165) since his first career start in Week 11 of 2018. He's also first in yards per attempt (7.8) and touchdown rate (6.4%) in that span.

If you remember any of these stats, remember this. Jackson has the highest pass touchdown rate of any player in NFL history. 6.4% of his career pass attempts result in touchdowns, the best of any player with 2,500+ attempts, all-time. 

Lamar Jackson's Hall of Fame résumé as a rusher

Jackson has the most rushing yards of any quarterback in NFL history (6,173) and has led the NFL in yards per rush attempt four times. When all is said and done, he will easily have the greatest rushing résumé for any quarterback in NFL history. But are those credentials Hall of Fame worthy compared with the best running backs of all time? 

That's also a complicated comparison because the average modern-era Hall of Fame running back averages nearly twice as many rush attempts per game in their careers (17.8) as Lamar Jackson (9.8). Those running backs also made significant contributions as receivers, but I'm ignoring those and strictly focusing on the Hall of Fame résumé as a rusher.

Still, Jackson is closer to those running backs than you probably think, even in terms of volume. Jackson ranks eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (6,173) since he was drafted in 2018. He has more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara over that span.

It's also only about 2,000 rushing yards shy of the average modern-era Hall of Fame running back through seven career seasons. He even has more rushing yards (6,173) through seven career seasons than Floyd Little (5,566), Leroy Kelly (5,209) and John Riggins (4,655). That's a trio of running backs with gold jackets. Jackson will also presumably benefit from adding to his rushing totals in his early to mid-thirties, while most running backs retire around 30. 

Lamar Jackson vs average modern-era Hall-of-Fame RBs in first seven seasons

The true test for Jackson's Hall of Fame credentials will be if he can reach 10,000 career rushing yards. One thing I looked at earlier this offseason was when Jackson's rushing ability would start to diminish and whether he could become the first quarterback to 10,000 career rushing yards. 

Even if his rushing skills decline to the point where he averages 40 rushing yards per game (he's currently averaging 59.9 for his career), he would reach 10,000 rush yards in late 2031, or about seven seasons when he's 34 years old.

It's hard to predict when Jackson will hit a wall in this department and if he will stay healthy enough, but I'm going to give this generational talent the benefit of the doubt and say he will reach 10,000 rush yards down the road. 

That would be an essential milestone, as 16 of the 32 players with 10,000 rush yards are in the Hall of Fame. And it's 16 of 28 if you exclude rushers who are not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Jackson's blend of both volume and efficiency would make for a bulletproof case. There are currently only two players in NFL history with 10,000 rush yards on 5.0+ yards per rush. That's Jim Brown and Barry Sanders.

It's staggering to think Jackson could someday join that list, but it's true. 10,000 yards is going to be tough, but it's possible. Plus, he's at 6.1 yards per rush in his career.

Lamar Jackson's two Hall of Fame careers

Jackson has played seven seasons in the NFL. Can you imagine what his numbers will look like in another seven seasons? Possibly 300 touchdown passes and 10,000 career rushing yards. That would be an astounding feat, especially when you consider the 32 players with 10,000 rush yards combined for 40 pass touchdowns in their careers. 

It's hard to predict exactly how Lamar's game will age because he relies heavily on his legs. The decline should be steeper than most quarterbacks, as his legs are a crucial part of his passing success. His rushing ability forces defenses to deploy more defenders in the box, creating mismatches in the passing game. His legs also help him extend plays and lead to production in the passing game, evidenced by his 42 career touchdown passes outside the pocket (fourth in the NFL since 2018). 

There are reasonable cases for and against this, but when his career is over, I think you'll be able to isolate Jackson's passing stats and rushing stats and say he had two Hall of Fame-worthy careers. He's certainly on that path.