DraftKings quarterback props: Week 9 NFL player prop picks include Josh Allen, J.J. McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the reigning NFL MVP, and he's in the discussion to repeat after guiding his franchise to a 5-2 start. However, he'll go head-to-head with current NFL MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes on Sunday as the two superstar quarterbacks face off for a 10th time. The two have had some epic duels in the past, but with Buffalo leaning heavily on its rushing attack, it's unlikely Allen throws the ball 40 times like he did during a regular-season win over Kansas City last season. Allen and the Bills are two-point underdogs at home, according to the latest NFL odds. 

The latest NFL odds from DraftKings list Allen's over/under for total passing yards at 233.5. It's a total he topped in both that Week 11 matchup and the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, but he's only thrown the ball more than 30 times once since throwing 46 times in a come-from-behind win over the Ravens in Week 1. That's a big reason why the SportsLine Projection Model is including Allen Under 233.5 passing yards as one of its top Week 9 NFL quarterback props.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 45-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sunday NFL QB prop picks for NFL Week 9 at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

• Josh Allen, Bills, Under 233.5 passing yards (-112)
• J.J. McCarthy, Vikings, Under 207.5 passing yards (-112)
• Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, anytime touchdown scorer (+475)

Josh Allen, Bills, Under 233.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

Allen and the Bills came back from a bye week to end a two-game losing streak with a dominant 40-9 win over the Panthers last Sunday where Buffalo rushed for 245 yards. Allen only need to throw the ball 19 times in the win and he's now thrown the ball 28 times or fewer in five games. He's also failed to throw for more than 213 yards in any of those contests and now he'll take on a Chiefs pass defense that ranks third in the NFL. The model predicts that Allen throws for only 208 yards on average.

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings, Under 207.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

The former first-round pick out of Michigan is finally slated to return after missing five games with an ankle injury and there were even rumors while he was gone that the Minnesota coaching staff might be delaying his return intentionally. In the two games that McCarthy was in the lineup, he attempted 41 total passes and failed to eclipse 158 passing yards in either start. The Vikings have had issues protecting both McCarthy and his backup Carson Wentz (28 sacks allowed), so don't expect many deep shots with Aidan Hutchison looming. The model predicts that McCarthy throws for only 187 yards on average.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, anytime TD scorer (+330, DraftKings)

Lawrence might not be in the Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen category when it comes to athleticism, but he's more than capable of making plays with his legs and he's got 16 rushing touchdowns as he approaches the halfway mark of his fifth season. In his only matchup with the Raiders in 2022, Lawrence ran six times for 53 yards and it wouldn't be surprising if Liam Coen had a few designed runs cooked up for his quarterback coming off a bye week. The model predicts that he scores 0.28 touchdowns on average while the odds imply that he only has a 23.3% chance to score.