The reigning AFC champions are up against a surprise AFC heavyweight on Sunday, with the Kansas City Chiefs playing host to the Indianapolis Colts. Few could've anticipated the Chiefs entering the afternoon contest with a noticeably worse record, as Kansas City (5-5) is desperate to stay above .500 in a race for the division they've owned for the better part of a decade, fresh off a critical defeat at the hands of the rival Denver Broncos.
The Colts, meanwhile, are trying to keep hold of their own division after a blazing 8-2 start atop the AFC South.
They fared quite well to open Sunday's game, entering halftime up 14-9 on the Chiefs in front of the Arrowhead Stadium crowd. Daniel Jones diced up Steve Spagnuolo's defense along the way, hitting 10 of his first 12 passes while taking advantage of an early Patrick Mahomes pick, which was forced by Laiatu Latu. The Chiefs, meanwhile, settled for three field goals despite running at least 10 plays on their final three series of the half.
Can Indianapolis maintain its unexpected surge to the top tier of the AFC standings by stunning the Chiefs in Arrowhead? Or is Mahomes poised to kick off a late-year tear while guiding Kansas City? Either way, this is a must-see matchup. Stay tuned for live updates and analysis.
K.C. shows up late and steals one from a Colts team that had full control of the game early on, with Butker making his fourth field goal of the matchup. The Chiefs overcome an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to improve to 6-5.
Here's the big play the Chiefs have been waiting for:
Well, we've got extra football at Arrowhead: Patrick Mahomes drives the Chiefs all the way to the Colts' 3-yard line, but Indy stands firm and ultimately takes down No. 15, with Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu splitting a third-and-goal sack. Harrison Butker's subsequent field goal sends us to overtime. It's 20-20. Let's see if K.C. can complete the comeback.
Daniel Jones opened this game with top-tier composure, effortlessly reading and dissecting the Chiefs' defense. It's been a different story for much of the second half, as he nearly threw a pick to two different K.C. defensive backs on the Colts' last drive and has generally been off the mark when under pressure. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are moving with a bit more authority, as evidenced by a Patrick Mahomes-to-Rashee Rice dart from deep in their own territory. Indy had a chance to get a statement first down earlier, lining up for a near-midfield fourth-down try, only to take a delay of game after failing to draw the Chiefs offsides.
Patrick Mahomes puts his body on the line in the red zone, absorbing an open-field hit from Germaine Pratt on a scramble, and then Kareem Hunt finishes the drive with a leap over the goal line. Kansas City's first touchdown of the day comes at just the right time, and then Mahomes fires one to Rashee Rice for two points. And all of a sudden we've got ourselves a three-point ballgame. Shane Steichen's group really needs a scoring drive.
It's officially red-alert time in Kansas City. Finally driving back into the red zone, the Chiefs lose the ball as Hunt has it ripped out by Zaire Franklin on his way to the ground. And guess who recovers? Ex-Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward, who outraces Travis Kelce to confirm the Colts' second takeaway of the day.
Kansas City holds firm on the tail end of the Colts' latest series, but Jones still drives Indy 69 yards for another Michael Badgley field goal, moving the chains earlier with a wide-open scramble and also dumping one to Tyler Warren on a nicely designed screen. Shane Steichen's squad is in control here as Andy Reid struggles to spread out the Chiefs' weapons. K.C. is averaging a measly 4.3 yards per play up to this point.
Daniel Jones misses a wide-open Josh Downs on third-and-short to set up a Michael Badgley field goal, but only after going 4 for 4 to put Indy in scoring range once again. Chris Jones' pressure up the gut seemed to affect Jones' accuracy on that one. It's otherwise been a stellar day for the Colts' quarterback, who's gone 14 of 17 for two scores against the Chiefs' defense. Credit also goes to Indy's defense, which isn't always winning up front right away but is locking down K.C.'s big-play opportunities thanks to tight coverage from Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.
The Chiefs' drives in the first half:
Finishing has been the issue all year. Today is no different. Andy Reid tried to dial up some Rashee Rice touches to seal the deal on the last drive, but an unofficial sweep into the Colts' front seven isn't exactly opening up the attack. Trade acquisition Sauce Gardner also provided coverage for Indy on the final throw of the drive.
Another long Chiefs drive, another three points to show for it, as Indianapolis logs back-to-back sacks of Patrick Mahomes, with Neville Gallimore and Austin Ajiake each downing K.C.'s quarterback to force another Harrison Butker field goal. The Chiefs are trying to shake things up by incorporating old friend Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was elevated from the scout team and already has four touches, but the issue remains the same: finishing.
He's not necessarily chucking it deep, but Jones is having a field day so far in front of the Arrowhead crowd; the Colts quarterback is 10 of 11 (90.9%) while averaging 8.5 yards per throw, with two scores and no picks. The most impressive part: Jonathan Taylor has yet to break loose on the ground for the Colts. It helps, of course, that Indy got to open one of its drives in the Chiefs' red zone after Laiatu Latu picked off Patrick Mahomes.
Talk about a laser from Daniel Jones, who hangs in the pocket despite facing heat from George Karlaftis and threads the needle to Drew Ogletree, who manages to get both feet in-bounds while working against Trent McDuffie in coverage. It's 14-3 in favor of the Colts, who are owning this matchup at Arrowhead so far:
Kansas City holds the ball for more than eight minutes of game time, using three different running backs -- Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith and practice squad elevation Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- to get into the red zone. But then a Travis Kelce direct-snap score gets nullified by a Jawaan Taylor face mask, and the Chiefs have to settle for three. Harrison Butker's 28-yard field goal keeps it a one-score contest. But that's a win for Indianapolis' defense.
Daniel Jones fires it to Michael Pittman Jr., and Indy quickly capitalizes on the Chiefs' early turnover:
Laiatu Latu does it all to steal the ball from the Chiefs deep in K.C.'s own territory:
Thornton is on track for a bigger role against the Colts, per CBS Sports' Tracy Wolfson. The former Patriots speedster was much more involved at the start of the season, when he peaked with nine catches for 71 yards and a touchdown during the Chiefs' late-September win over the Giants.
Count on Kareem Hunt leading the way for Kansas City's backfield yet again:
From Tyler Sullivan's pre-game breakdown:
If the Chiefs lose: If Kansas City loses, they are at serious risk of missing the playoffs. According to SportsLine's projections entering Week 12, the Chiefs would have just a 36.3% chance of making the playoffs if they lose to Indianapolis. They'd be under .500 at 5-6, own a 2-5 conference record, and remain on the wrong side of a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Jaguars, who enter Week 12 as the No. 7 seed.
From the SportsLine Projection Model preview:
Indianapolis is 6-3-1 against the spread and 6-4 to the Over. Kansas City is 5-5 ATS and 7-3 to the Under. Four of the last five Colts games have gone Over, while five of the last five Chiefs games have gone Under.
Popular sentiment says the Chiefs can't be declared dead until there's no longer a pulse to detect, and the model agrees. It expects Arrowhead to remain a fortress, as Kansas City wins in 65% of the model's simulations. The Chiefs also cover in 57% of the simulations. The Under hits 51% of the time.
Colts vs. Chiefs score prediction: Chiefs 29, Colts 22
Indianapolis is very healthy going into this matchup, with DeForest Buckner (injured reserve) one of the few big names sidelined against the Chiefs:
